R Lohner, Muhammad Baqui, Eberhard Haug and Britto Muhamad
The purpose of this paper is to develop a first-principles model for the simulation of pedestrian flows and crowd dynamics capable of computing the movement of a million…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to develop a first-principles model for the simulation of pedestrian flows and crowd dynamics capable of computing the movement of a million pedestrians in real-time in order to assess the potential safety hazards and operational performance at events where many individuals are gathered. Examples of such situations are sport and music events, cinemas and theatres, museums, conference centres, places of pilgrimage and worship, street demonstrations, emergency evacuation during natural disasters.
Design/methodology/approach
The model is based on a series of forces, such as: will forces (the desire to reach a place at a certain time), pedestrian collision avoidance forces, obstacle/wall avoidance forces; pedestrian contact forces, and obstacle/wall contact forces. In order to allow for general geometries a so-called background triangulation is used to carry all geographic information. At any given time the location of any given pedestrian is updated on this mesh. The model has been validated qualitatively and quantitavely on repeated occasions. The code has been ported to shared and distributed memory parallel machines.
Findings
The results obtained show that the stated aim of computing the movement of a million pedestrians in real-time has been achieved. This is an important milestone, as it enables faster-than-real-time simulations of large crowds (stadiums, airports, train and bus stations, concerts) as well as evacuation simulations for whole cities.
Research limitations/implications
All models are wrong, but some are useful. The same applies to any modelling of pedestrians. Pedestrians are not machines, so stochastic runs will be required in the future in order to obtain statistically relevant ensembles.
Practical implications
This opens the way to link real-time data gathering of crowds (i.e. via cameras) with predictive calculations done faster than real-time, so that security personnel can be alerted to potential future problems during large-scale events.
Social implications
This will allow much better predictions for large-scale events, improving security and comfort.
Originality/value
This is the first time such speeds have been achieved for a micro-modelling code for pedestrians.
Details
Keywords
Fumiya Togashi, Takashi Misaka, Rainald Löhner and Shigeru Obayashi
It is of paramount importance to ensure safe and fast evacuation routes in cities in case of natural disasters, environmental accidents or acts of terrorism. The same applies to…
Abstract
Purpose
It is of paramount importance to ensure safe and fast evacuation routes in cities in case of natural disasters, environmental accidents or acts of terrorism. The same applies to large-scale events such as concerts, sport events and religious pilgrimages as airports and to traffic hubs such as airports and train stations. The prediction of pedestrian is notoriously difficult because it varies depending on circumstances (age group, cultural characteristics, etc.). In this study, the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation technique, which uses the updated observation data to improve the accuracy of the simulation, was applied to improve the accuracy of numerical simulations of pedestrian flow.
Design/methodology/approach
The EnKF, one of the data assimilation techniques, was applied to the in-house numerical simulation code for pedestrian flow. Two cases were studied in this study. One was the simplified one-directional experimental pedestrian flow. The other was the real pedestrian flow at the Kaaba in Mecca. First, numerical simulations were conducted using the empirical input parameter sets. Then, using the observation data, the EnKF estimated the appropriate input parameter sets. Finally, the numerical simulations using the estimated parameter sets were conducted.
Findings
The EnKF worked on the numerical simulations of pedestrian flow very effectively. In both cases: simplified experiment and real pedestrian flow, the EnKF estimated the proper input parameter sets which greatly improved the accuracy of the numerical simulation. The authors believe that the technique such as EnKF could also be used effectively in other fields of computational engineering where simulations and data have to be merged.
Practical implications
This technique can be used to improve both design and operational implementations of pedestrian and crowd dynamics predictions. It should be of high interest to command and control centers for large crowd events such as concerts, airports, train stations and pilgrimage centers.
Originality/value
To the authors’ knowledge, the data assimilation technique has not been applied to a numerical simulation of pedestrian flow, especially to the real pedestrian flow handling millions pedestrian such as the Mataf at the Kaaba. This study validated the capability and the usefulness of the data assimilation technique to numerical simulations for pedestrian flow.