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Article
Publication date: 21 November 2019

Brian Hay

966

Abstract

Details

Journal of Tourism Futures, vol. 5 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2055-5911

Keywords

Available. Open Access. Open Access
Article
Publication date: 23 September 2019

Brian Hay

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of two micro trends on the future marketing functions of national tourism organisations (NTOs): the increasing power of…

1997

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of two micro trends on the future marketing functions of national tourism organisations (NTOs): the increasing power of individuals and the irreverence of NTO’s current marketing functions.

Design/methodology/approach

Through a discussion of the literature driving the two identified micro-trends, a number of supportive sub-micro trends were also identified and explored.

Findings

The paper concludes that NTO’s have failed to recognise the growing distrust of monolithic organisations. NTO’s seem to be more concerned about their own survival, rather than providing a service to both their citizens and tourists. Also NTO’s have failed to acknowledge that tourists are much more confident in making their own decisions, based on marketing information from their own trusted “closed friendship groups”, rather than relying on NTO’s.

Research limitations/implications

The paper is based on a discussion of issues from only two micro-trends, but tourist decision-making processes may be more complex than suggested.

Practical implications

The paper concludes that in the near future there will be an increasing rejection of NTO’s marketing information, and in the longer term this may result in the demise of NTO’s. However, if NTO’s are to survive, it suggests two actions they could take to ensure their future relevance to both its citizens and tourists.

Social implications

Questioning whether national/state organisations always act in the best interests of its citizens, challenges the trust in NTO’s. The paper suggests that NTO’s recognise that their power relationships are more strongly linked to ideals of nationhood and endorsement by their international peers, rather than providing services to tourists.

Originality/value

This paper questions the implicate assumption that NTO’s should be a trusted source of marketing information. It suggests that NTO’s have failed to recognise the changing methods tourist use to help in their decision making.

Details

Journal of Tourism Futures, vol. 7 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2055-5911

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 21 August 2019

Brian Hay

The purpose of this paper is to explore the sustainability of National Tourism Organisations (NTOs) in light of the increasing power of cities.

190

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explore the sustainability of National Tourism Organisations (NTOs) in light of the increasing power of cities.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on a review of major societal trends and the author's interpretation of such trends, a tourism futurists’ perspective was applied to better understand the implications of such trends.

Findings

The future growth of tourism will be constrained by some of the greatest challenges facing society, including unrelenting population growth, ageing demographics, shortages of natural resources, devolution of power and increasing urbanisation. As a result of such trends, this review suggests there will be resurgence in the power of cities, leading to an increase in tourism between not only global cities but also, more importantly, secondary cities.

Research limitations/implications

The results are limited by selection of the trends and the author's interpretations of such trends.

Practical implications

The review suggests that city-city marketing will be a key driver in future tourism marketing, over country-country marketing.

Originality/value

The paper concludes that NTOs are no longer fit for purpose, as power, trust and relevance have shifted in favour of individual city marketing bureaus, over state controlled NTOs.

Details

Tourism Review, vol. 75 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1660-5373

Keywords

Available. Open Access. Open Access
Article
Publication date: 18 April 2018

Brian Hay

718

Abstract

Details

Journal of Tourism Futures, vol. 5 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2055-5911

Keywords

Available. Open Access. Open Access
Article
Publication date: 23 April 2018

Brian Hay

1138

Abstract

Details

Journal of Tourism Futures, vol. 4 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2055-5911

Keywords

Available. Open Access. Open Access
Article
Publication date: 18 April 2018

Brian Hay

1540

Abstract

Details

Journal of Tourism Futures, vol. 5 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2055-5911

Keywords

Available. Open Access. Open Access
Article
Publication date: 17 April 2018

Brian Hay

3166

Abstract

Details

Journal of Tourism Futures, vol. 5 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2055-5911

Keywords

Available. Open Access. Open Access
Article
Publication date: 15 December 2017

Brian Hay

2740

Abstract

Details

Journal of Tourism Futures, vol. 3 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2055-5911

Keywords

Available. Open Access. Open Access
Article
Publication date: 12 September 2016

Brian Hay

During the 2014 independence referendum in Scotland, there was much debate about the future broader political direction of the country but little discussion about its impact on…

2402

Abstract

Purpose

During the 2014 independence referendum in Scotland, there was much debate about the future broader political direction of the country but little discussion about its impact on Scottish tourism. The purpose of this paper is to explore and discuss the impact of the different future political options from a tourism perspective.

Design/methodology/approach

From the literature, four main political drivers were identified, and using Scotland as a reference, they were used in discussions with six experts to explore how tourism could develop under different political options. The outcomes from these discussions were combined by the researcher to develop in conjunction with the experts an agreed discussion note. This discussion note formed the basis for the exploration of the impact on tourism under four different future political options.

Findings

Of the four political options (devolution limited, devolution plus, devolution max/fiscal autonomy/federation and full independence), it is clear that all options had different positive and negative impacts for tourism. The devolution max option, however, was perceived as most damaging to tourism, because tourism would not be considered a priority, relative to other policy issues. The study concludes with six key lessons that destination management organisations (DMOs) should contemplate when considering the impacts of different political futures.

Research limitations/implications

Being focussed on one country with a strong political party whose raison d'être is independence makes it difficult to extrapolate the results. Nevertheless, given the strong commonality of agreement of the impacts within the experts consulted, this study suggests that DMOs can and should engage in political debates about the future of tourism in their destination.

Originality/value

The 2014 independence referendum in Scotland failed to achieve its primary aim of independence for Scotland, but it did provide space for other political options to be explored. This paper provides a perspective on how tourism could develop under different political options, and so help raise its profile in any future debates, both in Scotland and other destinations.

Details

Journal of Tourism Futures, vol. 2 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2055-5911

Keywords

Available. Open Access. Open Access
Article
Publication date: 20 July 2021

Brian Hay

To explore the future visions outlined in one of the first academic books on UK tourism to venture into tourism futures. Through today’s lens, their visions are explored through…

2065

Abstract

Purpose

To explore the future visions outlined in one of the first academic books on UK tourism to venture into tourism futures. Through today’s lens, their visions are explored through three topics: Future Markets and Destinations; Future Resources; and the Future Organization of Tourism.

Design/methodology/approach

Exploring the backstory, key drivers and tipping points of UK tourism development and tourism education during the 1960s and 1970s, they help to understand the rationale for the authors 1974 future visions of UK tourism. These visions are tested against reality, using a mixture of data, softer evidence and the authors’ judgements.

Findings

Acknowledging the authors showed courage in presenting their future visions, when so little was known about the development of tourism, let alone tourism futures. The article highlights the successes and failures of their future visions across 20 tourism sectors, through 55 tourism forecasts. The reasons for weaknesses in some of their forecasts, and their foresight in highlighting little known issues are explored, along with key learning points for tourism futurists.

Research limitations/implications

The future visions of UK tourism were tested against data and other evidence, but this was not always possible. Therefore, the success or failures of some of the visions are based on the authors’ judgement.

Originality/value

Over the past 50 years, there has been a steady growth in tourism futures studies. Given the recent increase in awareness of history in driving futures thinking, perhaps now is the time to apply this viewpoint to previously published tourism futures studies because such reviews provide a timely reminder of the transient nature of tourism futures gazing.

Details

Journal of Tourism Futures, vol. 9 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2055-5911

Keywords

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