Search results

1 – 10 of 15
Per page
102050
Citations:
Loading...
Access Restricted. View access options
Article
Publication date: 9 August 2022

Bingjun Li, Shuhua Zhang, Wenyan Li and Yifan Zhang

Grey modeling technique is an important element of grey system theory, and academic articles applied to agricultural science research have been published since 1985, proving the…

481

Abstract

Purpose

Grey modeling technique is an important element of grey system theory, and academic articles applied to agricultural science research have been published since 1985, proving the broad applicability and effectiveness of the technique from different aspects and providing a new means to solve agricultural science problems. The analysis of the connotation and trend of the application of grey modeling technique in agricultural science research contributes to the enrichment of grey technique and the development of agricultural science in multiple dimensions.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on the relevant literature selected from China National Knowledge Infrastructure, the Web of Science, SpiScholar and other databases in the past 37 years (1985–2021), this paper firstly applied the bibliometric method to quantitatively visualize and systematically analyze the trend of publication, productive author, productive institution, and highly cited literature. Then, the literature is combed by the application of different grey modeling techniques in agricultural science research, and the literature research progress is systematically analyzed.

Findings

The results show that grey model technology has broad prospects in the field of agricultural science research. Agricultural universities and research institutes are the main research forces in the application of grey model technology in agricultural science research, and have certain inheritance. The application of grey model technology in agricultural science research has wide applicability and precise practicability.

Originality/value

By analyzing and summarizing the application trend of grey model technology in agricultural science research, the research hotspot, research frontier and valuable research directions of grey model technology in agricultural science research can be more clearly grasped.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 12 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Access Restricted. View access options
Article
Publication date: 23 September 2019

Bingjun Li and Xiaoxiao Zhu

The purpose of this paper is to put forward the grey relational decision-making model of three-parameter interval grey number based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Data…

214

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to put forward the grey relational decision-making model of three-parameter interval grey number based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), based on the previous study of grey relational decision-making model, and it considers the advantages of the decision-making schemes and the subjective preferences of decision makers.

Design/methodology/approach

First of all, through AHP, the preference of each index is analyzed and the index weight is determined. Second, the DEA model is adopted to obtain the index weight from the perspective of the most beneficial to each scheme and objectively reflect the advantages of different schemes. Then, assign the comprehensive weights to each index of the grey relational decision-making model of three-parameter interval grey number, and calculate the grey relation degree of each scheme to rank the schemes.

Findings

The effectiveness of the model is proved by an example of carrier aircraft selection.

Practical implications

The applicability of this model is analyzed by taking carrier aircraft selection as an example. In fact, this model can also be widely used in agriculture, industry, economy, society and other fields.

Originality/value

In this paper, the combination of AHP and DEA is used to determine the index weight. Based on which, the grey relation degree under the three-parameter interval grey number is calculated. It intended the application space of the grey relational decision-making model.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 10 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Access Restricted. View access options
Article
Publication date: 5 February 2018

Bingjun Li, Weiming Yang and Xiaolu Li

The purpose of this paper is to address and overcome the problem that a single prediction model cannot accurately fit a data sequence with large fluctuations.

283

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to address and overcome the problem that a single prediction model cannot accurately fit a data sequence with large fluctuations.

Design/methodology/approach

Initially, the grey linear regression combination model was put forward. The Discrete Grey Model (DGM)(1,1) model and the multiple linear regression model were then combined using the entropy weight method. The grain yield from 2010 to 2015 was forecasted using DGM(1,1), a multiple linear regression model, the combined model and a GM(1,N) model. The predicted values were then compared against the actual values.

Findings

The results reveal that the combination model used in this paper offers greater simulation precision. The combination model can be applied to the series with fluctuations and the weights of influencing factors in the model can be objectively evaluated. The simulation accuracy of GM(1,N) model fluctuates greatly in this prediction.

Practical implications

The combined model adopted in this paper can be applied to grain forecasting to improve the accuracy of grain prediction. This is important as data on grain yield are typically characterised by large fluctuation and some information is often missed.

Originality/value

This paper puts the grey linear regression combination model which combines the DGM(1,1) model and the multiple linear regression model using the entropy weight method to determine the results weighting of the two models. It is intended that prediction accuracy can be improved through the combination of models used within this paper.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 8 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Access Restricted. View access options
Article
Publication date: 4 May 2021

Sandang Guo, Yaqian Jing and Bingjun Li

The purpose of this paper is to make multivariable gray model to be available for the application on interval gray number sequences directly, the matrix form of interval…

184

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to make multivariable gray model to be available for the application on interval gray number sequences directly, the matrix form of interval multivariable gray model (IMGM(1,m,k) model) is constructed to simulate and forecast original interval gray number sequences in this paper.

Design/methodology/approach

Firstly, the interval gray number is regarded as a three-dimensional column vector, and the parameters of multivariable gray model are expressed in matrix form. Based on the dynamic gray action and optimized background value, the interval multivariable gray model is constructed. Finally, two examples and comparisons are carried out to verify the effectiveness of IMGM(1,m,k) model.

Findings

The model is applied to simulate and predict expert value, foreign direct investment, automobile sales and steel output, respectively. The results show that the proposed model has better simulation and prediction performance than another two models.

Practical implications

Due to the uncertainty information and continuous changing of reality, the interval gray numbers are used to characterize full information of original data. And the IMGM(1,m,k) model not only considers the characteristics of parameters changing with time but also takes into account information on lower, middle and upper bounds of interval gray numbers simultaneously to make better suitable for practical application.

Originality/value

The main contribution of this paper is to propose a new interval multivariable gray model, which considers the interaction between the lower, middle and upper bounds of interval numbers and need not to transform interval gray number sequences into real sequences. According to combining different characteristics of each bound of interval gray numbers, the matrix form of interval multivariable gray model is established to simulate and forecast interval gray numbers. In addition, the model introduces dynamic gray action to reflect the changes of parameters over time. Instead of white equation of classic MGM(1,m), the difference equation is directly used to solve the simulated and predicted values.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 12 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Access Restricted. View access options
Article
Publication date: 17 July 2020

Weiming Yang and Bingjun Li

The purpose of this paper is to comprehensively and accurately analyze the supply and demand structural balance of grain in the context of China's agricultural supply-side reform…

189

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to comprehensively and accurately analyze the supply and demand structural balance of grain in the context of China's agricultural supply-side reform. By subdividing and forecasting the supply and demand, it is beneficial for targeted production in the case of clear demand and supply trends of main grain varieties.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper forecasted and analyzed the demand of main grain varieties by the grey interval forecast, and based on the grey incidence analysis of more influence factors, forecasted the grain production with GM (1,N) model.

Findings

The results show that the demand and yield will keep sustainable growth in the next three years, while there is still a big gap between the supply and demand of the main grain varieties in China and the soybean's production is far behind the growing demand.

Practical implications

This paper can make full use of the information to provide the evidence for government to formulate policies and put forward some correlative suggestions for growers.

Originality/value

In this paper, the grey model technology is applied to the structural reform of grain supply side, and different models are used to predict the structural balance of supply and demand of different kinds of grain. The study of grain supply and demand structural balance in China is vital to ensure grain security in the context of agricultural supply-side reform.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 11 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Access Restricted. View access options
Article
Publication date: 13 November 2020

Bingjun Li and Shuhua Zhang

The purpose of this study to provide a reference basis for effectively managing the risk of agrometeorological disasters in Henan Province, speeding up the establishment of a…

472

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study to provide a reference basis for effectively managing the risk of agrometeorological disasters in Henan Province, speeding up the establishment of a scientific and reasonable system of agrometeorological disasters prevention and reduction and guaranteeing grain security.

Design/methodology/approach

Firstly, according to the statistical data of areas covered by natural disaster, areas affected by natural disaster, sown area of grain crops and output of grain crops from 1979 to 2018 in Henan Province, China. We have constructed an agrometeorological disaster risk assessment system for Henan province, China, which is composed of indicators such as rate covered by natural disaster, rate affected by natural disaster, disaster coefficient of variation and disaster vulnerability. The variation characteristics of agrometeorological disasters in Henan Province and their effects on agricultural production are analyzed. Secondly, the grey relational analysis method is used to analyze the relation degree between the main agrometeorological disaster factors and the output of grain crops of Henan Province. Based on the grey BP neural network, the rate covered by various natural disaster and the rate affected by various natural disaster are simulated and predicted.

Findings

The results show that: (1) the freeze injury in the study period has a greater contingency, the intensity of the disaster is also greater, followed by floods. Droughts, windstorm and hail are Henan Province normal disasters. (2) According to the degree of disaster vulnerability, the ability to resist agricultural disasters in Henan Province is weak. (3) During the study period, drought and flood are the key agrometeorological disasters affecting the grain output of Henan Province, China.

Practical implications

The systematic analysis and evaluation of agrometeorological disasters are conducive to the sustainable development of agriculture, and at the same time, it can provide appropriate and effective measures for the assessment and reduction of economic losses and risks.

Originality/value

By calculating and analyzing the rate covered by natural disaster, the rate affected by natural disaster, disaster coefficient of variation and disaster vulnerability of crops in Henan Province of China and using grey BP neural network simulation projections for the rate covered by various natural disaster and the rate affected by various natural disaster, the risk assessment system of agrometeorological disasters in Henan is constructed, which provides a scientific basis for systematic analysis and evaluation of agrometeorological disasters.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 11 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Access Restricted. View access options
Article
Publication date: 28 October 2013

Jing Ye, Bingjun Li and Fang Liu

This paper aims to find an effective and standardized function transformation method to apply in both high-growth original data sequences and low-growth original data sequences…

229

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to find an effective and standardized function transformation method to apply in both high-growth original data sequences and low-growth original data sequences, which can improve the accuracy of model prediction in GM(1, 1) forecast.

Design/methodology/approach

In GM(1, 1) forecast, many original data sequences need to meet the quasi-exponential characteristic by methods of function transformation. However, many methods of function transformation have complex transformation processes or narrow application range. On the basis of the research results of Ye and Li, the paper presents a standardized approach based on to original data sequences and designs four situations of the standardized approach. By using high-growth and low-growth original data sequences as the objects, respectively, the paper verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method and compares the forecasting effects of GM(1, 1) based on function transformation with the original GM(1, 1).

Findings

Most of the results show that function transformations can improve the accuracy of the conventional GM(1, 1) forecast, and transform is a powerful tool to effectively process original data sequence of GM(1, 1) modeling.

Practical implications

GM(1, 1) forecast have been widely used in many fields such as agriculture, economy, meteorology, and geology. The proposed method in this paper can effectively apply to prediction of high-growth original data sequences and low-growth original data sequences, to some extent, enrich and deepen application of GM(1, 1) forecast.

Originality/value

The paper succeeds in providing a standardized approach based on and designs four intensity levels for different data sequences based on the standardized approach.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 3 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Access Restricted. View access options
Article
Publication date: 27 January 2012

Bingjun Li, Chunhua He, Liping Hu and Yanhua Li

The purpose of this paper is to realize dynamical grey incidence order of influencing factors of grain production in Henan province using grey systems theory.

906

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to realize dynamical grey incidence order of influencing factors of grain production in Henan province using grey systems theory.

Design/methodology/approach

Starting from choosing influence factors on grain production and dividing the 30 years (from 1979 to 2009 year) of grain production in Henan province into three periods, the authors calculate grey incidence degree between grain yield and every influencing factor by grey incidence analysis method, respectively, then obtain the grey incidence order of influencing factors in every period. Also based on the three grey incidence orders from different periods, the authors find a changeable tendency of influencing factors on grain production and key influencing factors on grain production in different periods. Finally, to keep Henan province grain production stable and sustainable, several policy suggestions are given.

Findings

The results are convincing: it is effective and powerful to analyze dynamically influencing factors of grain production using grey systems theory, and it is urgent to strengthen agricultural science and technology input, and pay close attention to the influence of dosage of pesticide and fertilizers on grain production.

Practical implications

Grey incidence analysis and findings exposed in the paper can be used by agricultural firms to optimize grain production plans, and by government to formulate reasonable agricultural production policies.

Originality/value

The paper succeeds in getting dynamical grey incidence order of influencing factors of grain production in Henan province using grey systems theory.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 2 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Access Restricted. View access options
Article
Publication date: 1 February 2004

Liu Sifeng, Zhao Liang, Dang Yaoguo and Li Bingjun

A new model called the G‐C‐D model, which is used to measure the technological advance, is built in this paper. The progress in non‐technical elements in Solow's “remaining value”…

548

Abstract

A new model called the G‐C‐D model, which is used to measure the technological advance, is built in this paper. The progress in non‐technical elements in Solow's “remaining value” is removed by using the idea, method and modeling technique of grey system theory. So, the difficult technical problem in the measurement of technological advance has been solved to a certain extent. The periodic G‐C‐D model of Henan Province is built in four different periods and the contribution rate of periodic technological advance of Henan Province is measured.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 33 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Access Restricted. View access options
Article
Publication date: 1 February 2004

Sifeng Liu, Yi Lin, Yaoguo Dang and Bingjun Li

In this paper, first a new model, the G‐C‐D model, which is used to measure the technological advance, is built. The progress with non‐technical elements in Solow's “remaining…

428

Abstract

In this paper, first a new model, the G‐C‐D model, which is used to measure the technological advance, is built. The progress with non‐technical elements in Solow's “remaining value” is removed by using the idea, method and modeling technique of grey system theory. So the difficult technical problem in measurement of technological advance has been solved to a certain extent. Secondly, another new model, the G‐E model, which combines the Grey model with the econometrics model, is built. Using the principle of grey incidence to analyse and cluster system factors, adopting the GM(1,1) simulated values of system's variables to build the econometrics model and confirming the predicted values with grey models, some difficult techniques in econometrics model building have been solved. Thirdly, the periodic G‐C‐D model of Henan Province is built in four different periods and the contribution rate of the periodic technological advance of Henan Province is measured. Lastly, the technical change and the relation between the technical change and the funds for science and technology of Henan Province are analysed with the grey production function (the G‐C‐D) and the grey‐econometrics combined model (the G‐E), and some useful outcome for policy‐making body are obtained.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 33 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

1 – 10 of 15
Per page
102050