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This paper aims to understand and explore the causal relationship of elements responsible for the macro vicious cycle of poverty in Guinea-Bissau, and discuss policies to break it.

The methodology used in this study is based on the system dynamics simulation paradigm.

Breaking the Guinean poverty cycle requires a multifaceted approach involving more resources and the building of several national capabilities. Traditional approaches tend to fail.

Limitations come from the level of abstraction used in the model, which does not detail the processes for building specific capabilities and their interrelationships, and the necessary exclusion of variables that may have an impact in the process. Considering implications, the study models the evolution of human development index (HDI) in Guinea-Bissau, linking it to the economy and political sectors and allowing the simulation of different scenarios.

The study presents a critical stance towards common recommendations from international agencies, and it provides a blueprint for development of more effective public policies.

Overcoming the poverty trap in sub-Saharan countries remains a challenge for the international community. The study aims at helping in the process of integrating different frameworks into a compact and manageable model.

The study contributes to the system dynamics and economic development literatures by presenting an integrative model of human development in Guinea-Bissau. There is no study in the system dynamics literature modelling the relationship of HDI to economy and political sectors while different and contradictory points of view characterize the economics literature, leaving well-meaning public officials in Guinea-Bissau at a loss of mental models to tackle the poverty trap in the country.