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1 – 10 of 11Mohd Nayyer Rahman, Badar Alam Iqbal and Nida Rahman
This study aims to find the impact of the trade war between the USA and China on Asian economies. Apart from macroeconomic variables associated with trade, this study explicitly…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to find the impact of the trade war between the USA and China on Asian economies. Apart from macroeconomic variables associated with trade, this study explicitly creates a trade war scenario and trade war participant dummies. Using the neural network multilayer perceptron, this study checks for the causal linkages between the predictors and target output for the panel of Asian economies and the USA.
Design/methodology/approach
A conceptual model of the after effects of trade war in a quadrant is developed. Variables related to trade and tariffs are included in the study for a panel of 19 Asian economies. The feedforward structure of neural network analysis is used to identify strong and weak predictors of trade war.
Findings
The hidden layers of the multilayer perceptron reveal the inconsistency in linkages for the predictors’ services exports, tariff measures, anti-dumping measures, trade war scenario dummy with gross domestic product. The findings suggest that to curtail the impact of the trade war on Asian economies, predictors with neural evidence must be paid due weightage in policy determination and trade agreements.
Originality/value
The study applies a novel and little explored AI/ML technique of Neural Network analysis with training of 70% observations. The paper will provide opportunity for other researchers to explore techniques of AI/ML in trade studies.
Details
Keywords
Badar Alam Iqbal and S Shane Haider Nacqvi
China is the most populous country of the world having a total population of 1010 million at the end of 1981. A few decades ago she was considered to be one of the backward…
Abstract
China is the most populous country of the world having a total population of 1010 million at the end of 1981. A few decades ago she was considered to be one of the backward economies of the Third World, but the result of zealous and concerted efforts has been China's emergence as a major trading power among the developing countries. The major trading partners of China belong to the capitalist block — Japan, the USA, West Germany, the UK and Hong Kong. In some areas China has now outplaced Japan in the race to capture international markets.
Mohd Nayyer Rahman, Badar Alam Iqbal and Nida Rahman
African Economies are a mix of emerging and developing economies, characterised by regional imbalances and socio-economic differences. Foreign Direct Investment and Trade has been…
Abstract
African Economies are a mix of emerging and developing economies, characterised by regional imbalances and socio-economic differences. Foreign Direct Investment and Trade has been important for the growth prospects of African Economies. In this paper, we attempt to study the impact of FDI and Trade in a COVID-19 scenario on the African Economies. We also study the lockdown restrictions in different regions of Africa. Applying Neural Network Analysis for the sample of 36 African Economies we identify the significant economic variables for GDP. The analysis based on a feedforward structure suggests that Merchandize Exports (MEXP) and Foreign Direct Investment Stock (FDIS) have very strong causal linkages with the GDP for African Economies sample. On the other hand, Merchandise Imports (MIMP), Services Exports (SEMP), Services Imports (SIMP), and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows (FDII) have a strong and significant relationship with GDP for the African Economies. Tariff Measures (TRFF), Anti-Dumping measures (ADP) and Foreign Direct Investment Outflows (FDIO) have no significant relationship.
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Badar Alam Iqbal and Mohd Nayyer Rahman
The aim of this study is to ponder over the issue of the combined political and economic importance of the BRIC(S) countries. The study highlights the performance of BRICS…
Abstract
Purpose
The aim of this study is to ponder over the issue of the combined political and economic importance of the BRIC(S) countries. The study highlights the performance of BRICS countries on the basis of various economic and social indicators, as well as patterns of trade and investment. The chapter examines the origin and the status of the BRICS Development Bank as a sign of the creation of a new political and economic block.
Methodology/approach
The present study adopts a descriptive method. It uses secondary data from several multilateral organisations.
Findings
The BRICS countries not only differ in their contribution to the global economy but also along major social indicators. BRICS Bank (New Development Bank) is an important step taken by BRICS countries, but its sustenance depends on the future policies and coordination of BRICS countries.
Research limitations
No econometric techniques are applied due to insufficiently available secondary data.
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Evans Osabuohien, Gbadebo Odularu, Daniel Ufua and Romanus Osabohien
Politics has three contingent aspects, viz. a role‐play, a Majestic Art and a human social science. We may talk of the first aspect as just politicking. The second aspect was…
Abstract
Politics has three contingent aspects, viz. a role‐play, a Majestic Art and a human social science. We may talk of the first aspect as just politicking. The second aspect was delineated by Aristotle as an art of doing vis‐a‐vis the art of making: He meant by the former a behavioural art and by the latter a productive art; and the third aspect represents a comprehensive analytical study of human social behaviour.