The purpose of this paper, in contrast to other studies, is to examine an indirect relationship in terms of the effect of income inequality with stock market development in…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper, in contrast to other studies, is to examine an indirect relationship in terms of the effect of income inequality with stock market development in countries South of the Euro-zone during the period 2002-2013.
Design/methodology/approach
The author adopts a new econometric method, the Improved Augmented Regression Method, to obtain bias-reduced and stationary-corrected estimators.
Findings
The results reveal a negative relationship that puts into doubt the recovery of growth.
Originality/value
The new econometric methodology leads to a novel suggested policy on the need for reforms adopting a low-income tax rate system and reinforcement of export-oriented productivity. This conclusion is strengthened by the respective relationship in USA.
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Athanasios Tsagkanos, Costas Siriopoulos and Konstantina Vartholomatou
The purpose of this paper is to examine two novel theories that concern the relationship between stock market development (SMD) and foreign direct investment (FDI). The authors…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine two novel theories that concern the relationship between stock market development (SMD) and foreign direct investment (FDI). The authors focus on Greece that was demoted to the emerging market category in 2013–2014 in the international lists.
Design/methodology/approach
This study is based on the period 1988–2014 that includes the sub-periods 1988–2001 (emerging market) and 2002–2014 (developed market). The authors adopt cointegration methods examining, on the one hand, if the relationship between SMD and FDI is positive or negative and, on the other hand, if it is long run or short run. The authors complete the analysis using the Markov Switching regression model for the test of robustness.
Findings
The results exhibit a weak positive and symmetric long-run relationship for the full period. In the first sub-period, the relationship is strong but in the second sub-period it is not significant. The results are confirmed by the Markov Switching regression model.
Originality/value
The precise definition of a theoretical framework that is tested by a compact empirical methodology leads to a novel suggested policy that will upgrade the Greek market to developed market as soon as possible.
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Athanasios Tsagkanos and Konstantinos Andriakopoulos
The aim of this research is to empirically examine if both credit cycle of large lending and business cycle affect the ex-post credit risk (i.e. non-performing loans (NPLs)) in…
Abstract
Purpose
The aim of this research is to empirically examine if both credit cycle of large lending and business cycle affect the ex-post credit risk (i.e. non-performing loans (NPLs)) in the banking system of USA. A unique data set is created by using the Statistics on Depository Institutions (SDI) report compiled by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) covering the period between 2010Q1 and 2021Q4.
Design/methodology/approach
The differenced generalised method of moments (GMM) is used as econometric methodology to deal with endogeneity issues that may arise when we regress non-perfoming loans (NPLs) on the credit cycle of large lending (proxy of banks’ self-discipline) and business cycle (proxy of macroeconomic conditions).
Findings
What we found is that both current credit cycle of large lending and one period lag business cycle can influence the US NPLs negatively due to the self-discipline role of large lending and the adverse macroeconomic conditions respectively. The excess credit influence of credit cycle of large lending on the US NPLs emerges after a period lag. Similarly, unexpectedly, current business cycle affects the US NPLs positively. Moreover, we noticed that the US NPLs have not a symmetric sensitivity between both business cycle and credit cycle of large lending.
Originality/value
The authors offer crucial evidence that credit cycle of large lending can also be associated negatively with NPLs enriching the relevant literature, which supports that credit cycle influences positively NPLs due to loan credit expanding, implying that NPLs can be reduced by large lending through the improvement of banks’ cost efficiency.
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Athanasios Tsagkanos, Dimitrios Koumanakos and Michalis Pavlakis
The purpose of this study is to examine the transmission of volatility between business confidence index and stock market indices in Greece. The country remains the riskiest…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to examine the transmission of volatility between business confidence index and stock market indices in Greece. The country remains the riskiest project in European Union (EU) and previous studies fail to reach an accurate conclusion regarding the direction of this transmission.
Design/methodology/approach
The study covers the period from January 2013 to August 2022 in monthly basis where important economic events occur. Considering that these economic events derive strong volatility moments, the authors adopt a new methodology that measures the transmission of volatility with higher precision. This is the generalized spillover analysis by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012).
Findings
The results indicate that Business Confidence Index (BCI) is the main receiver of volatility spillovers in Greece under all aspects of the used methodology. The specificity of the results shows that business activity through a green growth model is what drives investor confidence and then their activities.
Originality/value
Although a handful of studies have considered the transmission of volatility between BCI and stock market indices, this study contributes in several ways. This study focuses on one country (Greece), avoiding the dispersion of the results from the examination of the relationship in several countries. The used country remains the riskiest project in EU even nowadays, while other studies fail to confirm the main direction of volatility spillovers from business confidence to stock returns. This study covers a period that is ignored by previous studies and includes important economic events. In addition, considering that these economic events derive strong volatility moments, a new methodology is adopted in this field of research that measures the transmission of volatility with higher accuracy.
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Athanasios Tsagkanos, Evangelos Koumanakos, Antonios Georgopoulos and Costas Siriopoulos
The main purpose of this study is to examine the possibility of prediction of Greek takeover targets that belong to the industrial sector, emphasizing the econometric methodology…
Abstract
Purpose
The main purpose of this study is to examine the possibility of prediction of Greek takeover targets that belong to the industrial sector, emphasizing the econometric methodology and the prediction test.
Design/methodology/approach
The study uses a sample of 51 targets and 290 non‐targets exclusively from Greek industry over the period 1997‐2005. In order to achieve a better predictive accuracy the paper uses a new econometric methodology, the bootstrap mixed logit and different (more advanced) techniques of prediction test and choice of cutoff values.
Findings
The results exhibit that bootstrap mixed logit has significant and valuable predictive ability with respect to the classical conditional logit model. Furthermore, the predictive accuracy is higher than the results of other studies (e.g Palepu and Espahbodi and Espahbodi).
Originality/value
The main contribution of this study is the application of the bootstrap mixed logit in analyzing Greek takeovers. The results change the prediction variables as well as the determinants of the takeover target characteristics for the Greek industry. This is meaningful, not only for the investors that seek to increase the value of their fortune through acquisitions, but also for the managers that can detect if their firm might be considered a takeover target.
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Panagiota Papaconstantinou, Athanasios G. Tsagkanos and Costas Siriopoulos
This paper aims to examine the impact of corruption and bureaucracy on economic growth in Greece as measured by the growth rate of per capita GDP. Also, using the mean per capita…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine the impact of corruption and bureaucracy on economic growth in Greece as measured by the growth rate of per capita GDP. Also, using the mean per capita GDP of the EU as a benchmark, it seeks to investigate the convergence timing of Greece with the EU.
Design/methodology/approach
The empirical approach taken is based on beta convergence theory.
Findings
The results confirm the negative impact of bureaucracy and corruption on economic growth. However, the corruption exerts a more significant influence on growth than bureaucracy. Also, the timing of convergence of Greece with the EU is found to be 37 years.
Originality/value
The robustness of these results is based on the use of a relatively new econometric method which is the Markov conditional bootstrap.