Anthony R. Beech and Leam A. Craig
The aim of this paper is to provide up‐to‐date discussion of the types of factors used to assess sexual offenders risk.
Abstract
Purpose
The aim of this paper is to provide up‐to‐date discussion of the types of factors used to assess sexual offenders risk.
Design/methodology/approach
The current status of the factors used to assess risk in sexual offenders is examined.
Findings
Risk factors broadly fall into two categories: static factors (i.e. generally unchangeable information such as previous offence history) from which a number of actuarial scales have been developed; and dynamic factors (i.e. psychological dispositions) that are typically identified in treatment. It is suggested that these risk factors are artefacts of the same behavioural and psychological vulnerabilities at different stages of assessment, with static factors acting as markers for underlying dispositions, while dynamic factors are the underlying dispositions.
Practical implications
The paper discusses in some detail the status of age as a risk factor, where even though it is typically considered a static risk factor in a number of actuarial scales (allowance typically being made if individuals are over/under 25), there is a dynamic element (i.e. change with age or the passage of time) to this aspect of assessment.
Originality/value
This paper may be useful to practitioners working in the field, in terms of providing a useful heuristic framework for risk conceptualisation.
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Anthony Beech, Tracey Swaffer, Vidyah Multra and Dawn Fisher
This study sought to further develop the growing body of qualitative evidence exploring the content, duration and triggers of cognitive distortions and deviant sexual fantasies in…
Abstract
This study sought to further develop the growing body of qualitative evidence exploring the content, duration and triggers of cognitive distortions and deviant sexual fantasies in perpetrators who offend against adult women, using grounded theory techniques. Detailed accounts of the thoughts and fantasies of 10 rapists pre‐ and post‐intervention were analysed. All participants reported having benefited from the programme. Nine participants reported that the victim‐focused work had the most impact on them. It was also found that after treatment: (a) there was a reduction in the level of cognitive distortions around victim blaming, other justifications for offending (such as alcohol use) and the acknowledgment of the impact that their offences has had upon their victims; (b) reductions in denial of fantasising about the offences prior to their offences. The implications of this study, for the improvement of intervention programmes for this group of offenders, are discussed.
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Jody Osborn, Ian Elliott, David Middleton and Anthony Beech
The present study investigates the use of two actuarial assessment measures ‐ Risk Matrix 2000 (Thornton et al, 2003) and Static 99 (Hanson & Thornton, 2000) ‐ with individuals…
Abstract
The present study investigates the use of two actuarial assessment measures ‐ Risk Matrix 2000 (Thornton et al, 2003) and Static 99 (Hanson & Thornton, 2000) ‐ with individuals convicted of downloading child pornography on the internet. A UK community‐based sample of convicted internet sex offenders (n = 73) was assessed using both a standard and a revised version of RM2000 and Static 99 and assessed for rates of reconviction. None of the offenders in the sample were convicted of a further sexual crime between a one‐and‐a‐half and fouryear follow‐up. These results suggest reconviction rates for internet sex offenders are lower than for contact child sex offenders. It was found that both the standard version of RM2000 and Static‐99 overestimate the risk levels posed by internet offenders and that an adapted version of RM2000 may be a more realistic measure of risk level in this population. In addition, it was noted that a higher frequency of low‐risk offenders appeared to be accessing images of younger children and images depicting more serious victimisation than high‐risk offenders.
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Claire Nagi, Eugene Ostapiuk, Leam Craig, David Hacker and Anthony Beech
The purpose of this study was to explore the predictive validity of the revised Problem Identification Checklist (PIC‐R) in predicting inpatient and community violence using a…
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to explore the predictive validity of the revised Problem Identification Checklist (PIC‐R) in predicting inpatient and community violence using a retrospective design. The Historical Scale (H‐Scale) of the HCR‐20 was employed to control for static risk factors. The predictive accuracy between predictors and outcome measures was evaluated using Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) analysis. The PIC‐R significantly predicted inpatient violence (AUC range 0.77‐0.92) over a 12‐month follow‐up period but did not predict community violence. Conversely, the H‐Scale significantly predicted community violence (AUC 0.82) but did not predict inpatient violence over a 12‐month follow‐up period. The findings offer preliminary validation for the predictive accuracy of the PIC‐R for violence in a UK inpatient population. Additionally, the findings suggest that short‐term risk of violence within a psychiatric inpatient population may be more related to dynamic and clinical risk variables rather than to static ones.
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The study examined how nursing staff in a secure forensic unit make judgements about female patients' level of risk and whether a patient's lack of engagement in therapy was a…
Abstract
The study examined how nursing staff in a secure forensic unit make judgements about female patients' level of risk and whether a patient's lack of engagement in therapy was a salient factor. Results indicate that staff accounted for the following historical factors when making judgements: past aggression, substance misuse, symptoms of psychosis and personality disorder, and the following clinical factors: lack of insight, non‐compliance and lack of motivation. A positive therapeutic alliance between patient and key‐worker, high levels of self‐confidence in staff members, a supportive nursing team and an institution with good procedural security were perceived to be protective factors.
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Nicola L. Beardsley and Anthony R. Beech
This paper seeks to evaluate the usefulness of the violent extremist risk assessment (VERA) by assessing how easily the criteria can be applied to case studies of five terrorists…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper seeks to evaluate the usefulness of the violent extremist risk assessment (VERA) by assessing how easily the criteria can be applied to case studies of five terrorists, and to determine whether it is more applicable to terrorists who work alone or as part of a group.
Design/methodology/approach
Case studies of five terrorists were constructed through online research. Evidence of each factor outlined in the VERA was rated and a total score for each category was calculated.
Findings
The majority of factors were easy to apply and were equally applicable to individuals within the sample regardless of whether they worked alone or as part of a group. The results tend to support theory and research about characteristics of violent extremists. This suggests that the factors are relevant and, therefore, that the VERA is a useful risk assessment guide.
Research limitations/implications
As the research is based on case studies, the findings may not generalise beyond the sample selected. In addition, some sources used to construct the case studies may be less reliable. Future research should include larger, more varied and more recent samples.
Practical implications
If future research confirms the present findings, the VERA may help to identify terrorists at risk of committing future offences. The factors may be incorporated into intervention strategies to prevent such offences.
Originality/value
Currently, the VERA is mainly for consultation purposes. This study applies it to real individuals, as it could be of great use in the risk assessment of terrorists.
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Leam Craig, Kevin Browne, Ian Stringer and Anthony Beech
The assessment of risk of recidivism in sexual offenders is fundamental to clinical practice. It is widely accepted that, compared with actuarial measures of risk, unaided…
Abstract
The assessment of risk of recidivism in sexual offenders is fundamental to clinical practice. It is widely accepted that, compared with actuarial measures of risk, unaided clinical judgment has generally been found to be of low reliability. Consequently, the literature has shown a surge in actuarial measures. However, a major difficulty in assessing risk in sex offenders is the low base rate, leading to an increased likelihood of making a false positive predictive error. To overcome this, risk assessment studies are increasingly using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC), which displays the relationship between level of risk and decision choice. This note summarises the methodological issues in measuring predictive accuracy in assessing risk of re‐offending in sexual offenders, and identifies from the literature both static and dynamic risk factors associated with sexual offence recidivism.