Anthony R. Beech and Leam A. Craig
The aim of this paper is to provide up‐to‐date discussion of the types of factors used to assess sexual offenders risk.
Abstract
Purpose
The aim of this paper is to provide up‐to‐date discussion of the types of factors used to assess sexual offenders risk.
Design/methodology/approach
The current status of the factors used to assess risk in sexual offenders is examined.
Findings
Risk factors broadly fall into two categories: static factors (i.e. generally unchangeable information such as previous offence history) from which a number of actuarial scales have been developed; and dynamic factors (i.e. psychological dispositions) that are typically identified in treatment. It is suggested that these risk factors are artefacts of the same behavioural and psychological vulnerabilities at different stages of assessment, with static factors acting as markers for underlying dispositions, while dynamic factors are the underlying dispositions.
Practical implications
The paper discusses in some detail the status of age as a risk factor, where even though it is typically considered a static risk factor in a number of actuarial scales (allowance typically being made if individuals are over/under 25), there is a dynamic element (i.e. change with age or the passage of time) to this aspect of assessment.
Originality/value
This paper may be useful to practitioners working in the field, in terms of providing a useful heuristic framework for risk conceptualisation.
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Jody Osborn, Ian Elliott, David Middleton and Anthony Beech
The present study investigates the use of two actuarial assessment measures ‐ Risk Matrix 2000 (Thornton et al, 2003) and Static 99 (Hanson & Thornton, 2000) ‐ with individuals…
Abstract
The present study investigates the use of two actuarial assessment measures ‐ Risk Matrix 2000 (Thornton et al, 2003) and Static 99 (Hanson & Thornton, 2000) ‐ with individuals convicted of downloading child pornography on the internet. A UK community‐based sample of convicted internet sex offenders (n = 73) was assessed using both a standard and a revised version of RM2000 and Static 99 and assessed for rates of reconviction. None of the offenders in the sample were convicted of a further sexual crime between a one‐and‐a‐half and fouryear follow‐up. These results suggest reconviction rates for internet sex offenders are lower than for contact child sex offenders. It was found that both the standard version of RM2000 and Static‐99 overestimate the risk levels posed by internet offenders and that an adapted version of RM2000 may be a more realistic measure of risk level in this population. In addition, it was noted that a higher frequency of low‐risk offenders appeared to be accessing images of younger children and images depicting more serious victimisation than high‐risk offenders.
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Leam Craig, Kevin Browne, Ian Stringer and Anthony Beech
The assessment of risk of recidivism in sexual offenders is fundamental to clinical practice. It is widely accepted that, compared with actuarial measures of risk, unaided…
Abstract
The assessment of risk of recidivism in sexual offenders is fundamental to clinical practice. It is widely accepted that, compared with actuarial measures of risk, unaided clinical judgment has generally been found to be of low reliability. Consequently, the literature has shown a surge in actuarial measures. However, a major difficulty in assessing risk in sex offenders is the low base rate, leading to an increased likelihood of making a false positive predictive error. To overcome this, risk assessment studies are increasingly using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC), which displays the relationship between level of risk and decision choice. This note summarises the methodological issues in measuring predictive accuracy in assessing risk of re‐offending in sexual offenders, and identifies from the literature both static and dynamic risk factors associated with sexual offence recidivism.
Anthony Beech, Tracey Swaffer, Vidyah Multra and Dawn Fisher
This study sought to further develop the growing body of qualitative evidence exploring the content, duration and triggers of cognitive distortions and deviant sexual fantasies in…
Abstract
This study sought to further develop the growing body of qualitative evidence exploring the content, duration and triggers of cognitive distortions and deviant sexual fantasies in perpetrators who offend against adult women, using grounded theory techniques. Detailed accounts of the thoughts and fantasies of 10 rapists pre‐ and post‐intervention were analysed. All participants reported having benefited from the programme. Nine participants reported that the victim‐focused work had the most impact on them. It was also found that after treatment: (a) there was a reduction in the level of cognitive distortions around victim blaming, other justifications for offending (such as alcohol use) and the acknowledgment of the impact that their offences has had upon their victims; (b) reductions in denial of fantasising about the offences prior to their offences. The implications of this study, for the improvement of intervention programmes for this group of offenders, are discussed.
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Stephanie Kewley, Anthony Beech, Leigh Harkins and Helen Bonsall
– The purpose of this paper is to examine the extent to which risk is addressed in the risk management planning process of those convicted of sexual offending.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the extent to which risk is addressed in the risk management planning process of those convicted of sexual offending.
Design/methodology/approach
Data were collected from a risk assessment and management system called the Offender Assessment System (OASys), used by the National Offender Management Service, in England and Wales. The records of 216 clients were accessed and each risk management plan analysed. The study aimed to understand if first, general and sexual risk factors identified by assessors were recorded and detailed in subsequent plans; second, if specialist sexual offending risk assessment tools were used to inform risk management strategies; and third, if both a balance of control and support mechanisms were in place to tackle identified risk and needs of clients.
Findings
Inconsistencies were found in relation to practitioners transposing risks identified, into the subsequent risk management plans. Strategies were therefore deemed, inadequate as there was a significant omission of the use of specialist sexual risk assessment tools to inform and ensure risk assessment to be robust. In addition risk management plans were often overbearing in nature, as assessors tended to utilise control strategies to assist the reintegration process, in contrast to a combination of both control and support.
Research limitations/implications
This sample was taken from only one probation trust in England and Wales. The findings might therefore be unique to this organisation rather than be representative of national practice. This study should therefore, be replicated in a number of other probation areas. In addition, it is important to note that this study only reviewed one electronic tool used by practitioners. Therefore, while it might appear for example that the RM2000 tool was not routinely completed; this cannot be assumed as practitioners might have adopted local custom and practice, recording RM2000 scores elsewhere.
Practical implications
These findings highlight the need for some understanding as to why there is a lack of consistency throughout the risk management planning process. Practitioners should receive ongoing risk management training, development and supportive supervision. In particular, practitioners require supervision that supports and develops their skills when applying RM2000 classifications to their clients’ risk management plans. Likewise initiatives which develop practitioner’s awareness and application of strengths based approaches such as the Good Lives Model should be encouraged. These will help practitioners develop plans that address both the risks while supporting their development of the strengths a client presents.
Originality/value
To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study of its kind, which examines the risk management plans of those convicted of sexual offending, completed by practitioners in England and Wales using the OASys tool.
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The study examined how nursing staff in a secure forensic unit make judgements about female patients' level of risk and whether a patient's lack of engagement in therapy was a…
Abstract
The study examined how nursing staff in a secure forensic unit make judgements about female patients' level of risk and whether a patient's lack of engagement in therapy was a salient factor. Results indicate that staff accounted for the following historical factors when making judgements: past aggression, substance misuse, symptoms of psychosis and personality disorder, and the following clinical factors: lack of insight, non‐compliance and lack of motivation. A positive therapeutic alliance between patient and key‐worker, high levels of self‐confidence in staff members, a supportive nursing team and an institution with good procedural security were perceived to be protective factors.
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Claire Nagi, Eugene Ostapiuk, Leam Craig, David Hacker and Anthony Beech
The purpose of this study was to explore the predictive validity of the revised Problem Identification Checklist (PIC‐R) in predicting inpatient and community violence using a…
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to explore the predictive validity of the revised Problem Identification Checklist (PIC‐R) in predicting inpatient and community violence using a retrospective design. The Historical Scale (H‐Scale) of the HCR‐20 was employed to control for static risk factors. The predictive accuracy between predictors and outcome measures was evaluated using Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) analysis. The PIC‐R significantly predicted inpatient violence (AUC range 0.77‐0.92) over a 12‐month follow‐up period but did not predict community violence. Conversely, the H‐Scale significantly predicted community violence (AUC 0.82) but did not predict inpatient violence over a 12‐month follow‐up period. The findings offer preliminary validation for the predictive accuracy of the PIC‐R for violence in a UK inpatient population. Additionally, the findings suggest that short‐term risk of violence within a psychiatric inpatient population may be more related to dynamic and clinical risk variables rather than to static ones.
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Hayley Stokes, Louise Dixon and Anthony Beech
This study aims to use pre‐treatment assessment scores to predict the drop out of 103 incarcerated male violent perpetrators undertaking a long‐term aggression programme, namely…
Abstract
This study aims to use pre‐treatment assessment scores to predict the drop out of 103 incarcerated male violent perpetrators undertaking a long‐term aggression programme, namely the Cognitive Self Change Programme (CSCP), in six English prisons. A hierarchy of best predictors of attrition in this sample is developed. Results found eight out of the 46 assessment variables analysed had a significant association with treatment drop out. Further to this, discriminant function analysis predicted group membership with 80% accuracy, successfully distinguishing perpetrators who dropped out of the programme from those who completed it. The findings support the use of identifying risk factors pre‐treatment to predict drop out and offer a practical way to identify group members who are likely to drop out of the CSCP in addition to identifying markers for programme improvement. The need for further research to increase our understanding of the underlying causal explanations that link specific assessment items to treatment dropout is discussed.
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Anthony Beech, Nick Freemantle, Caroline Power and Dawn Fisher
– The purpose of this paper is to examine the potential biases in research designs used to assess the efficacy of sex offender treatment.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the potential biases in research designs used to assess the efficacy of sex offender treatment.
Design/methodology/approach
In all, 50 treatment studies (n=13,886) were examined using a random effects meta-analysis model.
Findings
Results indicated a positive effect of treatment for both sexual (OR=0.58, 95%, CI 0.45-0.74, p < 0.0001), and general recidivism (OR=0.54, 95%, CI 0.42-0.69, p < 0.0001), indicating that the likelihood of being reconvicted after treatment was around half compared to no treatment. RCTs showed no significant effect for sexual or general, recidivism. Significant effects were found for non-RCT designs (i.e. incidental cohort, completers vs non-completers designs). Assignment based on need (i.e. giving treatment to those who were high-risk) indicated a negative effect of treatment.
Practical implications
The results highlight the importance of considering study design when considering treatment efficacy.
Originality/value
The current research reports studies identified up until 2009, and examined both published, and unpublished, research originating from a variety of samples employing a random effects model. Consequently, it can be argued that the results are both original and are reflective not only of identified studies, but are also representative of a random set of observations drawn from the common population distribution (Fleiss, 1993). The results of the study suggest that what is required in future research is methodological rigour, and consistency, in the way in which researchers measure the effectiveness of sexual offender treatment.