Agwu Sunday Okoro, Augustine Ujunwa, Farida Umar and Angela Ukemenam
This paper examines the impact of regional and non-regional trade on economic growth using annual data from Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) member countries for…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper examines the impact of regional and non-regional trade on economic growth using annual data from Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) member countries for the period 2007 to 2017.
Design/methodology/approach
Trade data were decomposed into regional (trade among ECOWAS Member States) and non-regional (trade between ECOWAS Member States and the rest of the world). We used the dynamic system GMM to estimate the models and introduced exchange rate, unemployment rate, population growth and gross capital formation as controlled variables.
Findings
The results revealed that the estimated coefficient of ECOWAS regional trade is statistically significant and positive in predicting growth, while the non-regional trade coefficient is negative and not statistically significant in predicting growth. Other predictors of growth introduced into the model as controlled variables, such as exchange rate, unemployment rate, population growth and gross capital formation, displayed mixed results. More importantly, population growth, unemployment and exchange rate depreciation hurt economic growth, while gross capital formation promotes economic growth.
Practical implications
The findings provide strong support in favour of the Krugman (1991) hypothesis that regional trade agreements (RTAs) are a better alternative to global trade.
Originality/value
Our decision to disaggregate ECOWAS trade is unique and influenced largely by the objective of the study, which is to establish the type of ECOWAS trade that is a good predictor of growth. The evidence from our findings support the theory that RTAs are a better catalyst to economic growth.
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Udoma Johnson Afangideh, Augustine Ujunwa and Angela Ifeanyi Ukemenam
Persistent wave of armed conflicts – militancy and terrorism – and the mono-cultural structure of the Nigerian economy, as well as extensive reliance on revenue from crude oil…
Abstract
Purpose
Persistent wave of armed conflicts – militancy and terrorism – and the mono-cultural structure of the Nigerian economy, as well as extensive reliance on revenue from crude oil, highlights how external vulnerabilities, weakening internal structure and insecurity could significantly exacerbate public revenue loss. Understanding the nature, trend and impact of these factors on government revenue is one of the questions that still remain unsolved. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of global oil prices, militancy and terrorism on government revenue in Nigeria.
Design/methodology/approach
The study focusses on the state-failure and frustration-aggression hypotheses to explain the nature and trend of armed conflicts in Nigeria. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is used to examine the effect of global oil prices, militancy and terrorism on government revenue.
Findings
The study reveals that crude oil price, terrorism and militancy have significant negative effect on government revenue in short- and long-run Nigeria. Evidence from the study therefore supports the theory that macroeconomic fluctuation is largely determined by endogenous and exogenous factors in Nigeria.
Research limitations/implications
In view of this review, future studies should empirically analyse the interactive impact of militancy, terrorism and global oil prices on government expenditure or a combination of government revenue and expenditure.
Originality/value
The study provides evidence on the role of internal and external factors on macroeconomic fluctuation, and recommended appropriate suite of policies that could mitigate external and internal vulnerabilities, especially during upsurge in armed conflicts.
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Ebere Kalu, Chinwe Okoyeuzu, Angela Ukemenam and Augustine Ujunwa
We study the contemporaneous effects of US monetary policy normalization on African stock market using panel data from six African countries.
Abstract
Purpose
We study the contemporaneous effects of US monetary policy normalization on African stock market using panel data from six African countries.
Design/methodology/approach
Daily data from May 1, 2013 to December 31, 2018 were used in order to accommodate the announcement effects since the US monetary policy normalization announcement was made in May 2013, while the rate hike was in December 2015. The study used the FE, RE and PMG models.
Findings
The results revealed that US 10-year bond yield and Treasury bill rate shocks negatively affect stock prices in Africa. S$P500 shock positively affects African stock prices.The result revealed that the integration of African financial market to the global financial market is a major source of vulnerability. The finding that US Treasury bill rate is a major depressant of the African stock prices reveals the short-termism of foreign polio inflows into African economies.
Originality/value
We provide inexorably insight into the interplay of financial systems globally. It can be useful for the purposes of generalization in developing economies in the shape of African countries. More so, this study could be replicated in another economic bloc or region with the aim of further exposing the far-reaching spillover effects of the US monetary policy normalization.
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Chinwe Regina Okoyeuzu, Angela Ifeanyi Ujunwa, Augustine Ujunwa, Nelson N. Nkwor, Ebere Ume Kalu and Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is regarded as a region with one of the worst cases of armed conflict and climate risk. This paper examines the interactive effect of armed conflict and…
Abstract
Purpose
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is regarded as a region with one of the worst cases of armed conflict and climate risk. This paper examines the interactive effect of armed conflict and climate risk on gender vulnerability in SSA.
Design/methodology/approach
The difference and system generalised method of movement (GMM) were used to examine the relationship between the variables using annualised data of 35 SSA countries from 1998 to 2019.
Findings
The paper found strong evidence that armed conflict and climate change are positive predictors of gender vulnerability. The impact of climate change on gender vulnerability is found to be more direct than indirect.
Practical implications
The direct and indirect positive effect of armed conflict and climate change on gender vulnerability implies that climate change drives gender vulnerability through multiple channels. This underscores the need for a multi-disciplinary policy approach to addressing gender vulnerability problem in SSA.
Originality/value
The study contributes to the climate action debate by highlighting the need for climate action to incorporate gender inclusive policies such as massive investment in infrastructure and safety nets that offer protection to the most vulnerable girls and women affected by armed conflict and climate change. Societies should as a matter of urgency strive to structural barriers that predispose girls and women to biodiversity loss.
Peer review
The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-09-2022-0595