Muhammad Ali Jibran Qamar, Asma Hassan, Mian Sajid Nazir and Abdul Haque
The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of dividend announcements on the stock return of Shariah-compliant and conventional stocks.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of dividend announcements on the stock return of Shariah-compliant and conventional stocks.
Design/methodology/approach
An event study methodology is applied to study the beta anomaly. Market-adjusted return model, mean-adjusted return model and market model have been applied to calculate excess returns. Estimation period used in this study is 130 days, and event period consists of 21 days in total, i.e. starting from the day –10 “before the cash dividend announcement” to day +10 “after the cash dividend announcements.
Findings
It has been concluded from the results that dividend plays an informational role in the Pakistan Stock Exchange. As the investors in Pakistan react favorably to the dividend increase announcements and unfavorably to the dividend decrease announcements, they consider dividend increase announcement as good news and dividend decrease announcement as bad news.
Practical implications
The findings of this study have several implications for different participants of the stock market, such as investors, academicians, researchers, fund managers and policymakers. They can use this information to make decisions while making efficient portfolios. Investors may get abnormal returns by focusing on the dividend announcement patterns. This can influence the attitude of investors toward efficient investments in the stock market and ultimately contribute to the betterment of society. This study is also beneficial for academicians and researchers, as it provides a comparative analysis of Shariah-compliant and conventional stocks and the anomalous effect of dividend announcements on stock return.
Originality/value
Limited research in the world’s context and null is available in Pakistani context on the subject matter. The comparative analysis of “Shariah-compliant” and “conventional” stocks provides insight into the asset pricing of Shariah-compliant stocks that have not been explored earlier. This study also uses three different methods (mean model, market model and market-adjusted return models) to compare Shariah-compliant and conventional stocks
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Saba Haider, Mian Sajid Nazir, Alfredo Jiménez and Muhammad Ali Jibran Qamar
In this paper the authors examine evidence on exchange rate predictability through commodity prices for a set of countries categorized as commodity import- and export-dependent…
Abstract
Purpose
In this paper the authors examine evidence on exchange rate predictability through commodity prices for a set of countries categorized as commodity import- and export-dependent developed and emerging countries.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors perform in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting analysis. The commodity prices are modeled to predict the exchange rate and to analyze whether this commodity price model can perform better than the random walk model (RWM) or not. These two models are compared and evaluated in terms of exchange rate forecasting abilities based on mean squared forecast error and Theil inequality coefficient.
Findings
The authors find that primary commodity prices better predict exchange rates in almost two-thirds of export-dependent developed countries. In contrast, the RWM shows superior performance in the majority of export-dependent emerging, import-dependent emerging and developed countries.
Originality/value
Previous studies examined the exchange rate of commodity export-dependent developed countries mainly. This study examines both developed and emerging countries and finds for which one the changes in prices of export commodities (in case of commodity export-dependent country) or prices of major importing commodities (in case of import-dependent countries) can significantly predict the exchange rate.
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Krishna Reddy, Muhammad Ali Jibran Qamar, Nawazish Mirza and Fangwei Shi
The purpose of the study is to examine overreaction effect in the Chinese stock market after the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007 for all the stocks listed in Shanghai Stock…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of the study is to examine overreaction effect in the Chinese stock market after the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007 for all the stocks listed in Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) Composite 50 index.
Design/methodology/approach
To capture overreaction effect in the stock listed at SSE 50 Index, a time series analysis of average cumulative abnormal return within a unified framework is applied for the period of January 2009 to December 2015. From these loser and winner portfolios, contrarian strategy is applied to build arbitrage portfolio, which is the difference of mean reversions between loser and winner portfolios. The portfolio construction is based on a 12-month formation period and 6-month testing period for intermediate-term analysis and. for short-term analysis, 6 month formation and 3 month testing periods. The authors also applied regression analysis to test a return reversal effect for the sampled period.
Findings
Results show that contrarian strategy yields positive excess returns for the arbitrage portfolio for most of the testing periods. The intermediate baseline case shows the arbitrage portfolio producing an average excess return of 14.1%, while even the short-term one produces 4%, which is statistically significant at the 5% level. The study finds asymmetrical overreactions in the SSE especially for loser portfolios. The biggest winner and loser portfolios follow the mean reversal effect. Moreover, before-after test for the biggest winner and loser portfolios shows that the losers recovered and beat the market immediately.
Practical implications
The study could benefit government, policy makers and regulators by studying how presence of more individual investors than institutional investors of China stock market leads to more irrational decisions giving rise to volatility. The regulators could build favourable policies for institutional investors to give them incentive to invest more than individual investors through which market volatility could be controlled.
Originality/value
This research contributes to market behaviour research, showing how working under hypotheses of overreaction; gains can be made with contrarian investment strategy through arbitrage portfolios. The authors provide specific additional support for the short and medium-term overreaction in the SSE for the period 2009–2015 using regression analysis.
Contribution to Impact
This research contributes to market behaviour research, showing how working under hypotheses of overreaction; gains can be made with contrarian investment strategy through arbitrage portfolios. We provide specific additional support for the short and medium-term overreaction in the SSE for the period 2009–2015 using regression analysis.
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Umar Farooq and Ali Qamar Jibran
The purpose of the study is to systematically review the literature of indirect cost of financial distress to understand its scope, measurements, impact size and determinants to…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of the study is to systematically review the literature of indirect cost of financial distress to understand its scope, measurements, impact size and determinants to synthesis with future research agenda.
Design/methodology/approach
Five-step process of systematic literature review (SLR) as applied by Opoku et al. (2015) is used. SLR extracted 47 studies of indirect cost after applying specified search criteria. Data regarding measurement, impact size and determinants are presented and summarised in specified tables.
Findings
SLR showed that the study of indirect cost in developing countries is a literature gap. It is also found that opportunity loss, operating profit loss, market loss and risk premium are most studied indirect costs using legal definition or ex ante proxy of financial distress. However, future studies are recommended to use both non-linear leverage and ex ante proxy of financial distress. Future studies are also suggested to use the moderation technique while studying the determinants of indirect cost.
Research limitations/implications
Literature selection is based on specific search criteria that can miss some of the other related literature.
Originality/value
The indirect cost of financial distress is more costly and difficult to measure due to its complex concealed effects. A detailed literature of indirect cost is needed to understand the construct that eventually will help to define the future research agenda. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no SLR of indirect cost is provided yet. Therefore, the outcome of this research will be valuable for both academicians and practitioners.
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Krishna Reddy, Muhammad Ali Jibran Qamar and Marriam Rao
The existing literature about return reversal effect in Chinese stock markets is inconclusive and controversial. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the…
Abstract
Purpose
The existing literature about return reversal effect in Chinese stock markets is inconclusive and controversial. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the presence of return reversal effect in the Shanghai A stock market.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors used the late-stage contrarian strategy of Malin and Bornholt (2013) for the period March 2011‒March 2016.
Findings
The results show that there is a long-term return reversal effect in the Shanghai A stock market for the period March 2011‒March 2016. When portfolios are in the formation period (P=24 months), the excess returns are significant in the holding period, Q=6, 9, 12, 24 months. Further, there is also a significant short-term momentum effect in the Shanghai A stock market. For the robustness check, a new reversal factor was introduced into the Fama‒French three-factor model. Results show that portfolios have a smaller size and have lower book-to-market ratios; the return reversal factor explains a portion of the abnormal returns and coefficient of the reversal effect is significant.
Research limitations/implications
The authors caution readers from generalizing the findings of this study, as the sample is small and the focus is only on A stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
Originality/value
The present research expands the current literature by providing a comprehensive information about the presence of the long-term and short-term return reversal effects in Shanghai A stock market. Furthermore, the Chinese stock markets have distinctive features in comparison to the developed stock markets in terms of government control, institutional structure, liquidity, cultural background, etc. Such differences affect the pattern in stock returns compared with those observed in developed stock markets. Contrary to previous studies, the present study also accounts for robustness checks. Finally, it also evaluates the possible reasons for the return reversal effect in the Shanghai market.
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Umar Farooq, Muhammad Ali Jibran Qamar and Abdul Haque
The purpose of this paper is to explain the multi-stage dynamic process of financial distress. An attempt is made to explore multiple adverse heterogeneous events of financial…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to explain the multi-stage dynamic process of financial distress. An attempt is made to explore multiple adverse heterogeneous events of financial distress leading a firm closer to bankruptcy progressively.
Design/methodology/approach
Sample comprises 321 ongoing, 54 suspended and 91 delisted non-financial firms from Pakistan Stock Exchange. Financial distress is segregated into three stages, i.e. profit reduction, mild liquidity (ML) and severe liquidity (SL). Flow diagrams are used to explain the transition of healthy firms through proposed stages of financial distress.
Findings
Results showed that firms liquidated/winding-up by court documented SL problems and closed their operations well before the delisting year. It is found that healthy firms are more likely to face SL when faced ML problem at first stage. Distressed firms can recover to a healthy position at any stage, however after approaching to SL, recovery is less expected.
Practical implications
The proposed process will provide a foundation for future studies to develop more relevant, robust and accurate early warning system of corporate failure that will help stakeholders to respond potential crisis accordingly and timely.
Originality/value
Previously, most of the studies used the ex post definition of bankruptcy that is criticized due to the contextual application, sample bias and non-segregation by the degree of liquidity problems. The originality of the proposed ex ante model is its segregation into a three-stage process that can be generalized regardless of specific bankruptcy law.
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Umair Bin Yousaf, Khalil Jebran and Man Wang
The purpose of this study is to explore whether different board diversity attributes (corporate governance aspect) can be used to predict financial distress. This study also aims…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to explore whether different board diversity attributes (corporate governance aspect) can be used to predict financial distress. This study also aims to identify what type of prediction models are more applicable to capture board diversity along with conventional predictors.
Design/methodology/approach
This study used Chinese A-listed companies during 2007–2016. Board diversity dimensions of gender, age, education, expertise and independence are categorized into three broad categories; relation-oriented diversity (age and gender), task-oriented diversity (expertise and education) and structural diversity (independence). The data is divided into test and validation sets. Six statistical and machine learning models that included logistic regression, dynamic hazard, K-nearest neighbor, random forest (RF), bagging and boosting were compared on Type I errors, Type II errors, accuracy and area under the curve.
Findings
The results indicate that board diversity attributes can significantly predict the financial distress of firms. Overall, the machine learning models perform better and the best model in terms of Type I error and accuracy is RF.
Practical implications
This study not only highlights symptoms but also causes of financial distress, which are deeply rooted in weak corporate governance. The result of the study can be used in future credit risk assessment by incorporating board diversity attributes. The study has implications for academicians, practitioners and nomination committees.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to comprehensively investigate how different attributes of diversity can predict financial distress in Chinese firms. Further, this study also explores, which financial distress prediction models can show better predictive power.
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Nadia Yusuf, Inass Salamah Ali and Tariq Zubair
This study investigates the impact of US dollar volatility and oil rents on the performance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC…
Abstract
Purpose
This study investigates the impact of US dollar volatility and oil rents on the performance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, with an emphasis on understanding how these factors influence SME financing constraints in economies with fixed currency regimes.
Design/methodology/approach
Employing a random effects panel regression analysis, this research considers US dollar volatility and oil rents as independent variables, with SME performance, measured through the financing gap, as the dependent variable. Controls such as trade balance, inflation deltas and gross domestic product (GDP) growth are included to isolate their effects on SME financing constraints.
Findings
The study reveals a significant positive relationship between dollar volatility and the financing gap, suggesting that increased volatility can exacerbate SME financing constraints. Conversely, oil rents did not show a significant direct influence on SME performance. The trade balance and inflation deltas were found to have significant effects, highlighting the multifaceted nature of economic variables affecting SMEs.
Research limitations/implications
The study acknowledges potential biases due to omitted variables and the limitations inherent in the use of secondary data.
Practical implications
Findings offer pertinent guidance for SMEs and policymakers in the GCC region seeking to develop strategies that mitigate the impact of currency volatility and support SME financing.
Originality/value
The research provides new insights into the dynamics of SME performance within fixed currency regimes, which significantly contributes to the limited literature in this area. The paper further underscores the complex connections between global economic factors and SME financial health.
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Laura Aibolovna Kuanova, Rimma Sagiyeva and Nasim Shah Shirazi
This paper aims to study the main trends of scientific research in Islamic finance’s social aspects to clarify place, role and functions, especially in the context of increasing…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to study the main trends of scientific research in Islamic finance’s social aspects to clarify place, role and functions, especially in the context of increasing social problems. To achieve this goal, this paper focuses on the social component of Islamic finance, analyzes publications on social Islamic finance in the Web of Science database, covering the period from 1979 to 2020, specify the geographical localization of research networks, determines the most cited authors and their scientific position.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors have applied several literature review techniques, a bibliometric citation and co-citation analysis, a co-authorship analysis and a review of the most cited papers. The analyzes’ results allow us to offer five future questions in Islamic social finance, zakat and waqf, which have not been investigated before and could influence Islamic social finance and Islamic finance research.
Findings
The authors also derive and summarize five leading future research questions.
Research limitations/implications
This is a limitation of using only the Web of Science Core Collection database as the premier resource and the most trusted citation index for the world’s scientific and scholarly research. Further study might expand the types of analyzed units, include more keywords and include other databases, such as Scopus.
Originality/value
This paper can be considered as an inspirational one to future researchers and policymakers in Islamic social finance.
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Nasim S. Shirazi, Laura A. Kuanova, Adilbek Ryskulov and Aziya G. Mukusheva
This paper aims to take stock of the Islamic finance experience and aims to identify an approach for further development in Kazakhstan, using qualitative and quantitative…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to take stock of the Islamic finance experience and aims to identify an approach for further development in Kazakhstan, using qualitative and quantitative assessments.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper presents a conceptual framework based on literature review and content analysis. Furthermore, the study uses a survey-based methodology to collect data and determine the prospects, challenges and possible remedies. The quantitative parameters of the potential of Islamic finance in Kazakhstan are based on the assessment of funds on bank deposits, which can be considered potential resources for Islamic financial instruments.
Findings
The results suggest improving the legal framework and institutional environment to grow Islamic finance in the country. Raising trust levels in a Shariah-based system within the local population, reducing transaction costs and reducing information asymmetry allow raising public awareness of Islamic finance and integrating Islamic finance into the conventional financial system.
Research limitations/implications
This paper is not free from limitations and does not focus on implementing the suggested results.
Social implications
This work elaborates in what way the Islamic finance advancement affects the development of economics and focuses on co-financing of real asset-based projects, with the risk and loss sharing; charity; strict prohibitions on the financing of haram activities, pseudo-needs; and subordination of the individual’s interests to society.
Originality/value
The proposed study presents originalities and it identifies the significant challenges and barriers for further Islamic financial industry development in Kazakhstan by professionals survey. Furthermore, the study assesses potential Islamic finance assets and provides recommendations for successful Islamic finance advancement, considering the peculiarities of the national economy.