Volume 26 of Research in Economic History includes six papers, evenly divided between European and North American topics. Beginning with the European topics, we have two data…
Abstract
Volume 26 of Research in Economic History includes six papers, evenly divided between European and North American topics. Beginning with the European topics, we have two data intensive papers and a survey/synthesis. Stefano Fenoaltea and Carlo Ciccarelli provide new estimates of social overhead investment in the different regions of Italy. This is followed by Markus Lampe's paper reporting data on bilateral trade flows in Europe between 1857 and 1875. The third contribution on a European topic is Bernard Harris's survey of the literature on gender, health, and welfare in England and Wales since industrialization.
At the time they occurred, the savings and loan insolvencies were considered the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Contrary to what was then believed, and in…
Abstract
At the time they occurred, the savings and loan insolvencies were considered the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Contrary to what was then believed, and in sharp contrast with 2007–2009, they in fact had little macroeconomic significance. Savings and Loan (S&L) remediation cost between 2 percent and 3 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), whereas the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and the conservatorships of Fannie and Freddie actually made money for the US Treasury. But the direct cost of government remediation is largely irrelevant in judging macro significance. What matters is the cumulative output loss associated with and plausibly caused by failing financial institutions. I estimate output losses for 1981–1984, 1991–1998, and 2007–2026 (the latter utilizing forecasts and projections along with actual data through 2015) and, for a final comparison, 1929–1941. The losses associated with 2007–2009 have been truly disastrous – in the same order of magnitude as the Great Depression. The S&L failures were, in contrast, inconsequential. Macroeconomists and policy makers should reserve the word crisis for financial disturbances that threaten substantial damage to the real economy, and continue efforts to identify in advance financial institutions which are systemically important (SIFI), and those which are not.
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Jason E. Taylor and Peter G. Klein
This paper explores the nature and causes of the cartel compliance crisis that befell the National Industrial Recovery Act (NIRA) one year after its passage in 1933. We employ a…
Abstract
This paper explores the nature and causes of the cartel compliance crisis that befell the National Industrial Recovery Act (NIRA) one year after its passage in 1933. We employ a simple game-theoretic model of the NIRA's cartel enforcement mechanism to show that the compliance crisis can largely be explained by changes in expectations, rather than a change in enforcement policy. Specifically, firms initially overestimated the probability that defection would be met with sanction by the cartel's enabling body, the National Recovery Administration – including a consumer boycott resulting from loss of the patriotic Blue Eagle emblem – and complied with the industry cartel rules. As these expectations were correctly adjusted downward, cartel compliance was lost. We support this hypothesis empirically with industry-level panel data showing how output and wage rates varied according to consumer confidence in the Blue Eagle. The analysis provides insight about cartel performance more generally.
Research in Economic History, Volume 25, includes six chapters covering a range of geographic areas and tackling a range of issues in economic history. The first two address…
Abstract
Research in Economic History, Volume 25, includes six chapters covering a range of geographic areas and tackling a range of issues in economic history. The first two address United States topics, one analyzing data from the eighteenth and the other from the twentieth century. Both have a macroeconomic focus. Peter Mancall, Josh Rosenbloom, and Tom Weiss consider growth in colonial America, while Gary Richardson examines the role of bank failures in propagating the Great Depression.
This volume of Research in Economic History (REH) includes eight papers, five of which were submitted and evaluated through our regular channels. An additional three were…
Abstract
This volume of Research in Economic History (REH) includes eight papers, five of which were submitted and evaluated through our regular channels. An additional three were solicited from among those presented at the conference “Toward a Global History of Prices and Wages,” held in Utrecht in August of 2004. Because of the emphasis of these papers on data and the relevance of their findings for our understanding of long-run economic growth and development in different parts of the world, we encouraged a number of authors from this conference to submit their work to REH. Associate editor Gregory Clark took responsibility for soliciting, refereeing, selecting, and editing the submissions. We anticipate publishing up to three more of these in the next volume, enriching both REH and our understanding of economic history.