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1 – 10 of 44Stefan Hartman and Albert Postma
As the Journal of Tourism Futures celebrates its 10th Anniversary, Dr Stefan Hartman (head of department at the European Tourism Futures Institute, NHL Stenden University of…
Abstract
Purpose
As the Journal of Tourism Futures celebrates its 10th Anniversary, Dr Stefan Hartman (head of department at the European Tourism Futures Institute, NHL Stenden University of Applied Sciences) interviews Prof. Albert Postma, professor of Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning) about Evolution and Future of Scenario Planning.
Design/methodology/approach
A personal interview held on September 12, 2024.
Findings
Albert Postma highlights the importance of scenario planning and strategic foresight and its evolution. Postma explains how he is taking a leading role in improving the impact of applications of scenario planning and strategic foresight in tourism practice.
Originality/value
The interview provides insights into the directions of scenario planning and strategic foresight applications in tourism practice and promising pathways for future academic contribution to the Journal of Tourism Futures.
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Albert Postma and Nicole Ferdinand
As the Journal of Tourism Futures celebrates its 10th anniversary, Dr. Albert Postma interviews Dr. Nicole Ferdinand (Oxford Brookes University Business School).
Abstract
Purpose
As the Journal of Tourism Futures celebrates its 10th anniversary, Dr. Albert Postma interviews Dr. Nicole Ferdinand (Oxford Brookes University Business School).
Design/methodology/approach
A personal interview.
Findings
The interview provides insights about the application of scenario planning for a mega event such as Notting Hill Carnival, how the process of scenario planning was experienced by the participants and the effect the study had on the Carnival, and how it was perceived in subsequent years.
Originality/value
Ferdinand shares her experiences with and learnings of the Notting Hill Carnival Futures project, conducted in 2013–2014 as first international project by the European Tourism Futures Institute.
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Albert Postma and Ian Seymour Yeoman
As the Journal of Tourism Futures celebrates its 10th anniversary, Dr. Albert Postma (NHL Stenden University) interviews Professor Ian Yeoman (NHL Stenden University) as co-editor…
Abstract
Purpose
As the Journal of Tourism Futures celebrates its 10th anniversary, Dr. Albert Postma (NHL Stenden University) interviews Professor Ian Yeoman (NHL Stenden University) as co-editor of the Journal of Tourism Futures and expert on scenario planning in tourism and hospitality.
Design/methodology/approach
A personal interview.
Findings
Yeoman shares his expertise on the establishment and evolution of the Journal of Tourism Futures, in the context of the growth of futures thinking in tourism within a science and industry context.
Originality/value
The interview provides insights in the evolution of futures thinking in tourism, reflected in the growth and growing reputation of the Journal of Tourism Futures.
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Albert Postma and Peter C. Bishop
As the Journal of Tourism Futures celebrates its tenth anniversary, Dr Albert Postma interviews Dr Peter Bishop, an expert on teaching the future. The interview was held on July…
Abstract
Purpose
As the Journal of Tourism Futures celebrates its tenth anniversary, Dr Albert Postma interviews Dr Peter Bishop, an expert on teaching the future. The interview was held on July 25, 2024.
Design/methodology/approach
A personal interview.
Findings
The interview provides insights into the importance of teaching the future, the evolution in teaching the future, competencies and skills that the teaching focuses on, challenges of teaching the future in the current era and the role of AI.
Originality/value
Bishop shares his expertise on the development of teaching the future, its key features and its challenges in the current era.
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Ian Seymour Yeoman, Albert Postma and Stefan Hartman
A case study about the creation of four scenarios that were used to make sense of the fast-moving pace of COVID-19 and the consequences for New Zealand tourism.
Abstract
Purpose
A case study about the creation of four scenarios that were used to make sense of the fast-moving pace of COVID-19 and the consequences for New Zealand tourism.
Design/methodology/approach
Adapting global visitor economy scenarios, a set of New Zealand tourism scenarios were constructed using a “back of house Shell” method and were supplemented with an expert panel to test the reliability and validity of the scenarios.
Findings
The four scenarios constructed were based on two critical uncertainties, namely economic recession and the moral dilemma of the consumer. Four scenarios were portrayed using film and TV titles to help participants visualise the scenarios. Crazy Rich Asians: Recovery represented many of the attributes of tourism in New Zealand prior to COVID-19 i.e. a focus on high value tourists from Asia. Contagion: Survival of the Fittest represented the reality of the COVID-19 pandemic. This Side of Paradise: ReThinking Tourism focused on rebuilding tourism based upon the principles of sustainability. The Colony: Gated Communities represented fortress destinations trying to keep COVID-19 at bay. Each scenario portrayed several features including a unique narrative, tourism, the tourist, vision, strategy and risks. The paper highlighted the trade-offs and conflicts between the scenarios as COVID-19 unfolded in different directions.
Originality/value
In a fluid situation, the paper reminds readers of the value of scenarios as framing devices to understand the fast-moving pace of COVID-19 when New Zealand was in unchartered waters. Thus, this study highlights how a scenario-planning process builds resilience and foresight to help stakeholders and actors make sense of crisis situations.
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Albert Postma and Dirk Schmuecker
The purpose of this paper is to clarify the mechanisms of conflict between residents and tourists and to propose a conceptual model to assess the impact of such conflicts on city…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to clarify the mechanisms of conflict between residents and tourists and to propose a conceptual model to assess the impact of such conflicts on city tourism and to suggest a framework to develop strategies to deal with such conflicts and mitigate negative impacts.
Design/methodology/approach
Based on desk research a conceptual model was developed which describes the drivers of conflicts between residents and visitors. Building blocks of the model are visitors and their attributes, residents and their attributes, conflict mechanisms and critical encounters between residents and visitors, and indicators of the quality and quantity of tourist facilities. Subsequently the model was used to analyse the situation in Hamburg. For this analysis concentration values were calculated based on supply data of hotels and AirBnB, app-data, and expert consultations.
Findings
The study shows that in Hamburg there are two key mechanisms that stimulate conflicts: (1) the number of tourists in relation to the number of residents and its distribution in time and space; (2) the behaviour of visitors measured in the norms that they pose onto themselves and others (indecent behaviour of tourists).
Research limitations/implications
The model that was developed is a conceptual model, not a model with which hypotheses can be tested statistically. Refinement of the model needs further study.
Practical implications
Based on the outcomes of the study concrete strategies were proposed with which Hamburg could manage and control the balance of tourism.
Originality/value
City tourism has been growing in the last decades, in some cases dramatically. As a consequence, conflicts between tourists, tourism suppliers and inhabitants can occur. The rise of the so-called sharing economy has recently added an additional facet to the discussion. The ability to assess and deal with such conflicts is of importance for the way city tourism can develop in the future. This study is an attempt to contribute to the understanding of the mechanism behind and the nature of those conflicts, and the way they can be managed and controlled. Besides it illustrates how data generated by social media (apps) can be used for such purposes.
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Albert Postma and Ian Seymour Yeoman
The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of systems thinking and its value for strategic foresight and scenario planning to address disruptive forces from…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of systems thinking and its value for strategic foresight and scenario planning to address disruptive forces from the outside, with the outbreak of COVID19 as a case study.
Design/methodology/approach
This conceptual paper concisely discusses the notion of systems thinking and the concept of complex adaptive systems and puts this in the context of contemporary society in general and travel and tourism in particular. Strategic foresight and scenario planning are introduced as an approach to anticipate disruptions in the complex adaptive travel and tourism system.
Findings
As COVID-19 has demonstrated, travel and tourism is sensitive for disruptions from the outside. To ensure long-term resilience and sustainability, a systems approach embedded in strategic foresight and scenario planning is emphasised.
Practical implications
Strategic foresight and scenario planning is a competence that can be learned.
Originality/value
Given the present status of COVID-19 and other disruptors on travel and tourism, a resilient approach to the future is necessary; thus, the value of this viewpoint paper is the proposition of an adaptive capacity system. This paper offers advice to understand and manage complexity and adaptive systems.
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Albert Postma and Bernadett Papp
This paper aims to contribute to the understanding of the concept of a trend and the discourse of trend analysis.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to contribute to the understanding of the concept of a trend and the discourse of trend analysis.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper concisely discusses the concept of trends, the value of trend analysis for strategic planning and hierarchical trend pyramids as a tool to scan and analyse trends.
Findings
The examples will be given of how specific mega, meso and micro trends are related within a hierarchic trend pyramid.
Practical implications
The tool of trend pyramids helps to structurally analyse and understand trends and developments. Such analysis and understanding are relevant for strategic foresight and scenario planning in leisure and tourism.
Originality/value
The literature on trend levels and pyramids is scarce and varies in interpretation. The aim of this paper is to integrate the various viewpoints into a useful instrument for the scanning and analysis of trends and developments.
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Albert Postma, Elena Cavagnaro and Ernesto Spruyt
In tourism, it is a challenge to connect the commercial (economic) interests of the industry with the creation of social and environmental values along the principles of…
Abstract
Purpose
In tourism, it is a challenge to connect the commercial (economic) interests of the industry with the creation of social and environmental values along the principles of sustainability. The purpose of this paper is to develop a framework that can inspire businesses to use sustainability as a leading principle for their commercial activities, by means of expert consultation.
Design/methodology/approach
A study was conducted in which sustainability, foresight and business identity featured as the guiding concepts. Data were collected by means of expert consultation.
Findings
The study resulted in four scenarios for a sustainable tourism industry in 2040 which were framed by the key uncertainties driving this 2040 future. These scenarios offer a source of inspiration for tourism businesses to develop a proactive attitude and robust strategies for a sustainable yet competitive future. Subsequently, for each of the four business types (based on their identity or DNA) strategic questions were listed together with actionable strategic propositions with reference to sustainable development.
Research limitations/implications
Data were collected with a sample of partners in the European Tourism Futures Research Network (convenience sample).
Practical implications
The key strategic questions and actionable strategic propositions are presented for four different business styles that allow them to implement sustainability in a commercial way.
Originality/value
The connection between the core concepts of sustainability, foresight and business identity offers a novel approach to the field of sustainability.
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