Mohammad Vahdatmanesh and Afshin Firouzi
Steel price uncertainty exposes pipeline projects that are inherently capital intensive to the risk of cost overruns. The current study proposes a hedging methodology for tackling…
Abstract
Purpose
Steel price uncertainty exposes pipeline projects that are inherently capital intensive to the risk of cost overruns. The current study proposes a hedging methodology for tackling steel pipeline price risk by deploying Asian option contracts that address the shortcomings of current risk mitigation strategies.
Design/methodology/approach
A stepwise methodology is introduced, which uses a closed-form formula as an Asian option valuation method for calculating this total expenditure. The scenario analysis of three price trends examines whether or not the approach is beneficial to users. The sensitivity analysis then has been conducted using the financial option Greeks to assess the effects of changes in volatility in the total price of the option contracts. The total price of the Asian options was then compared with those of the European and American options.
Findings
The results demonstrate that the Asian option expenditure was about 1.87% of the total cost of the case study project. The scenario analysis revealed that, except for when the price followed a continuous downward pattern, the use of this type of financial instrument is a practical approach for steel pipeline price risk management.
Practical implications
This approach is founded on a well-established financial options theory and elucidates how pipeline project participants can deploy Asian option contracts to safeguard against steel price fluctuations in practice.
Originality/value
Although the literature exists about the theory and application of financial derivative instruments for risk management in other sectors, their application to the construction industry is infrequent. In the proposed methodology, all participants involved in fixed price pipeline projects readily surmount the risk of exposure to material price fluctuations.
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Mohammad Vahdatmanesh, Afshin Firouzi and James Olabode Bamidele Rotimi
Post-disaster housing reconstruction (PDHR) demands a considerable percentage of global property investment, yet the post-disaster environment presents intricate challenges to…
Abstract
Purpose
Post-disaster housing reconstruction (PDHR) demands a considerable percentage of global property investment, yet the post-disaster environment presents intricate challenges to reconstruction financing for governments and at the same time, revenue uncertainty for private investors. The purpose of this study is to develop a methodology for tackling land shortage and the financial challenges of PDHR in the aftermath of a disaster.
Design/methodology/approach
This study developed a methodology based on a combined minimum revenue guarantee and maximum revenue cap model using a well-established real options analysis (ROA) for revenue risk sharing in PDHR projects and land readjustment (LR) for finance. The applicability of the purported model is demonstrated through an illustrative example.
Findings
The results show that flexibility in the options could increase the PDHR contractor’s risk profile by increasing the expected value of the contractor investment and reducing the probability of investment loss. On the other side, a cap on the contractor revenue stream would allow the government to benefit from any excess in revenue and would counterbalance the value of the option.
Practical implications
The framework proposed in this study could serve as a practical risk-revenue sharing in PDHR projects. Governments and policymakers could use the findings to enable the successful delivery of PDHR projects and consequently bring the quality of life of affected people to pre-disaster conditions.
Originality/value
This study can be considered as a first attempt toward the use of the Australian barrier style options structure, and the trinomial lattice valuation model in PDHR projects, which incorporates LR, public-private partnerships, governmental guarantees and PDHR concepts in one ROA-based framework.
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Wei Yang, Afshin Firouzi and Chun-Qing Li
The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the applicability of the Credit Default Swaps (CDS), as a financial instrument, for transferring of risk in project finance loans…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the applicability of the Credit Default Swaps (CDS), as a financial instrument, for transferring of risk in project finance loans. Also, an equation has been derived for pricing of CDS spreads.
Design/methodology/approach
The debt service cover ratio (DSCR) is modeled as a Brownian Motion (BM) with a power-law model fitted to the mean and half-variance of the existing data set of DSCRs. The survival probability of DSCR is calculated during the operational phase of the project finance deal, using a closed-form analytical method, and the results are verified by Monte Carlo simulation (MCS).
Findings
It is found that using the power-law model yields higher CDS premiums. This in turn confirms the necessity of conducting rigorous statistical analysis in fitting the best performing model as uninformed reliance on constant time-invariant drift and diffusion model can erroneously result in smaller CDS spreads. A sensitivity analysis also shows that the results are very sensitive to the recovery rate and cost of debt values.
Originality/value
Insufficiency of free cash flow is a major risk in the toll road project finance and hence there is a need to develop innovative financial instruments for risk management. In this paper, a novel valuation method of CDS is proposed assuming that DSCR follows the BM stochastic process.
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Mohammad Vahdatmanesh and Afshin Firouzi
Railroad transit infrastructures are amongst major capital-intensive projects worldwide, which impose significant risks to the contractors of build-operate-transfer projects…
Abstract
Purpose
Railroad transit infrastructures are amongst major capital-intensive projects worldwide, which impose significant risks to the contractors of build-operate-transfer projects because of the fluctuations in steel price fluctuation. The purpose of this paper is to introduce a methodology for hedging steel price risk using financial derivatives.
Design/methodology/approach
Cox–Ross valuation lattice has been used as an option valuation model for determining option’s price for the construction companies involved in fixed-price railroad projects. A sensitivity analysis has been conducted using the financial option Greeks to evaluate the impacts of option’s pricing factors in the total price of option.
Findings
The result of valuation shows that European options cost to safeguard against the effects of price risk is only a fraction in contrast to the total cost of steel procurement for a typical railroad construction company. This confirms that using this kind of financial derivative is a beneficial yet effective approach for hedging steel price risk for railroad construction companies.
Practical implications
The applicability of the financial derivatives, both exchange-traded and over-the-counter instruments, is evident in broad financial industry. This paper shows how European options can be readily used for risk management of a typical railroad project, and explains the methodology in a step-by-step procedure.
Originality/value
Although the financial engineering literature is rife of theory and application of derivatives in various contexts, to the best knowledge of authors there is only few papers on the application of these well-developed financial instruments for risk management in construction industry. This study intends to illustrate how financial derivatives can add value to risky construction projects and shed new light in this important application area.