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The Logistics Performance Index (LPI), published by the World Bank, is a key measure of national-level logistics performance. It comprises six indicators: customs, infrastructure, international shipments, service quality, timeliness, and tracking and tracing. The objective of this study is to explore temporal dependencies among the six LPI indicators while operationalizing the World Bank’s LPI framework in terms of mapping the input indicators (customs, infrastructure, and service quality) to the outcome indicators (international shipments representing cost, timeliness, and tracking and tracing representing reliability).

A Bayesian Belief Network (BBN)-based methodology was adopted to effectively map temporal dependencies among variables in a probabilistic network setting. Using forward and backward propagation features of BBN inferencing, critical variables were also identified. A BBN model was developed using the World Bank’s LPI datasets for 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2023, covering the six LPI indicators for 118 countries.

The prediction accuracy of the model is 88.1%. Strong dependencies are found across the six LPI indicators over time. The forward propagation analysis of the model reveals that “logistics competence and quality” is the most critical input indicator that can influence all three outcome indicators over time. The backward propagation analysis indicates that “customs” is the most critical indicator for improving the performance on the “international shipments” indicator, whereas “logistics competence and quality” can significantly improve the performance on the “timeliness” and “tracking and tracing” indicators. The sensitivity analysis of the model reveals that “logistics competence and quality” and “infrastructure” are the key indicators that can influence the results across the three outcome indicators. These findings provide useful insights to researchers regarding the importance of exploring the temporal modeling of dependencies among the LPI indicators. Moreover, policymakers can use these findings to help their countries target specific input indicators to improve country-level logistics performance.

This paper contributes to the literature on logistics management by exploring the temporal dependencies among the six LPI indicators for 118 countries over the last 14 years. Moreover, this paper proposes and operationalizes a data-driven BBN modeling approach in this unique context.

This study aims to explore the interrelationships among quality and safety metrics within the Global Food Security Index (GFSI). Its primary objective is to identify key indicators and their respective influences on food security outcomes, thereby enriching comprehension of the intricate dynamics within global food security.

The analysis encompasses data from 113 countries for the year 2022, utilizing Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) models to identify significant drivers of both the GFSI and quality and safety dimensions. This methodological approach enables the examination of probabilistic connections among different indicators, providing a structured framework for investigating the complex dynamics of food security.

The study highlights the critical role of regulatory frameworks, access to clean drinking water, and food safety mechanisms in fostering food security. Key findings reveal that “nutrition monitoring and surveillance” has the highest probability (75%) of achieving a high-performance state, whereas “national dietary guidelines” have the highest probability (41%) of achieving a low-performance state. High GFSI performance is associated with excelling in indicators such as “access to drinking water” and “food safety mechanisms”, while low performance is linked to underperformance in “national dietary guidelines” and “nutrition labeling”. “Protein quality” and “dietary diversity” are identified as the most critical indicators affecting both the GFSI and quality and safety dimensions.

This research operationalizes a probabilistic technique to analyze the interdependencies among quality and safety indicators within the GFSI. By uncovering the probabilistic connections between these indicators, the study enhances understanding of the underlying dynamics that influence food security outcomes. The findings highlight the critical roles of regulatory frameworks, access to clean drinking water, and food safety mechanisms, offering actionable insights that empower policymakers to make evidence-based decisions and allocate resources effectively. Ultimately, this research significantly contributes to the advancement of food security interventions and the achievement of sustainable development goals related to food quality and safety.

This paper aims to assess the impact of different drivers of country risk, including business environment, corruption, economic, environmental, financial, health and safety and political risks, on the country-level logistics performance.

This study utilizes three datasets published by reputed international organizations, including the World Bank Group, AM Best and Global Risk Profile, to explore interactions among country risk drivers and the Logistics Performance Index (LPI) in a network setting. The LPI, published by the World Bank Group, is a composite measure of the country-level logistics performance. Using the three datasets, a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model is developed to investigate the relative importance of country risk drivers that influence logistics performance.

The results indicate a moderate to a strong correlation among individual risks and between individual risks and the LPI score. The financial risk significantly varies relative to the extreme states of the LPI score, whereas corruption risk and political risk are the most critical factors influencing the LPI score relative to their resilience and vulnerability potential, respectively.

This study has made two unique contributions to the literature on logistics performance assessment. First, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to establish associations between country risk drivers and country-level logistics performance in a probabilistic network setting. Second, a new BBN-based process has been proposed for logistics performance assessment and operationalized to help researchers and practitioners establish the relative importance of risk drivers influencing logistics performance. The key feature of the proposed process is adapting the BBN methodology to logistics performance assessment through the lens of risk analysis.

The purpose of this paper is to address the limitations of conventional risk matrix based tools such that both positive and negative connotation of uncertainty could be captured within a unified framework that is capable of modeling the direction and strength of causal relationships across uncertainties and prioritizing project uncertainties as both threats and opportunities.

Theoretically grounded in the frameworks of Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) and interpretive structural modeling (ISM), this paper develops a structured process for assessing uncertainties in projects. The proposed process is demonstrated by a real application in the construction industry.

Project uncertainties must be prioritized on the basis of their network-wide propagation impact within a network setting of interacting threats and opportunities. Prioritization schemes neglecting interdependencies across project uncertainties might result in selecting sub-optimal strategies. Selection of strategies should focus on both identifying common cause uncertainty triggers and establishing the strength of interdependency between interconnected uncertainties.

This paper introduces a novel approach that integrates both facets of project uncertainties within a project uncertainty network so that decision makers can prioritize uncertainty factors considering the trade-off between threats and opportunities as well as their interactions. The ISM based development of the network structure helps in identifying common cause uncertainty triggers whereas the modeling of a BBN makes it possible to visualize the propagation impact of uncertainties within a network setting. Further, the proposed approach utilizes risk matrix data for project managers to be able to adopt this approach in practice. The proposed process can be used by practitioners while developing uncertainty management strategies, preparing risk management plans and formulating their contract strategy.

The purpose of this paper is to propose a data-driven scheme for identifying critical project complexity dimensions and establishing the trade-off across multiple project performance criteria.

This paper adopts a hybrid approach using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). The output of the ANN model is used as input to the BBN model for prioritizing project complexity dimensions relative to multiple project performance criteria. The proposed process is demonstrated through a real application in the construction industry.

With a number of nonlinear interactions involved within and across project complexity and performance, it is not feasible to model and assess the strength of these interactions using conventional techniques. The proposed process helps in effectively mapping a “multidimensional complexity” space to a “multidimensional performance” space and makes use of data from past projects for operationalizing this mapping scheme by means of ANNs. This obviates the need for developing a parametric model that is both challenging and computationally cumbersome. The mapping function can be used for generating all possible scenarios required for the development of a data-driven BBN model.

This paper introduces a data-driven process for operationalizing the mapping of project complexity to project performance within a network setting of interacting complexity dimensions and performance criteria. The results of the application study manifest the importance of capturing the interdependency across project complexity and performance. Ignoring the underlying interdependencies and relying exclusively on conventional correlation-based techniques may lead to making suboptimal decisions.

This study aims to address a gap in traditional university ranking methodologies by investigating the interrelations among key indicators featured in the QS rankings, within the broader context of benchmarking in higher education.

Utilizing the 2024 QS ranking data and a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model, this research explores the interconnected relationships among indicators such as “academic reputation,” “employer reputation,” “faculty-to-student ratio,” “sustainability” and others to predict university rankings.

The developed model achieves 80% predictive accuracy and shows that strong performance in “employment outcomes,” “academic reputation” and “employer reputation” contributes to higher overall scores. In contrast, weaker performance in “academic reputation” and “sustainability” is associated with lower scores. Among these factors, “academic reputation” is the most informative indicator for predicting the overall score.

This research contributes to the literature by emphasizing the interconnections among ranking criteria and advocating for network-based models for benchmarking in higher education. Particularly, it underscores the importance of “sustainability” in forecasting rankings, aligning well with the broader theme of predicting university performance and societal impact. This study offers valuable insights for researchers and policymakers, promoting a comprehensive approach that considers the interdependencies among criteria to enhance educational quality and address societal change within the framework of benchmarking in university rankings.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relative importance of the five dimensions and 17 associated pillars of the Travel and Tourism Development Index (TTDI) to understand their contributions to overall tourism competitiveness.

Using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs), this study analyzes data from 2024 for 119 countries to model the interactions between the dimensions and pillars of the TTDI. The BBN approach allows for a probabilistic understanding of how these elements influence tourism competitiveness.

The analysis reveals that “infrastructure and services” and “information and communication technology (ICT) readiness” play a critical role in enhancing tourism competitiveness. This study underscores the interconnectedness of various tourism factors, highlighting how strategic emphasis on these key areas can drive overall success in the sector.

This study contributes to the literature by empirically validating the factors that significantly impact tourism competitiveness. This study provides actionable insights for policymakers and industry leaders to enhance tourism development through a robust, data-driven framework that supports sustainable tourism management.

This study investigates the dependencies between the Global Food Security Index (GFSI) and its affordability-related indicators using Bayesian belief network (BBN) models. The research also aims to prioritise these indicators within a probabilistic network setting.

The research utilises BBN models to analyse data from 113 countries in 2022. Nine indicators related to food affordability, including income inequality, safety net programmes and trade freedom, are examined to understand their impact on food security. The methodology involves statistical modelling and analysis to identify critical factors influencing food security and to provide a comprehensive understanding of the global food affordability landscape.

The study reveals that income inequality, the presence and efficacy of safety net programmes and the degree of trade freedom are significant determinants of food affordability and overall food security outcomes. The analysis reveals marked disparities in performance across different countries, highlighting the need for context-specific interventions. The findings suggest that improving safety net programmes, implementing trade policy reforms and addressing income inequality are crucial for enhancing food affordability and security.

This research contributes to the literature by using BBN models to comprehensively analyse the relationship between the GFSI and affordability-related indicators. The study provides novel insights into how different socioeconomic factors influence food security across a diverse range of countries. The study offers actionable recommendations for policymakers to address food security challenges effectively, thereby supporting the development of more equitable and resilient food systems globally.

This paper aims to capture the complex interdependences between supply chain disruptions (SCDs), SC risk mitigation strategies and firm performance in the context of disruptive events to enhance resilience for medium-sized and large firms coping with complex supply chain networks. The roles of digitalization, insurance and government support have also been addressed as potential strategies to counteract the impacts of disruptions on supply chains.

This study is based on an empirical investigation in an FMCG company – using a hybrid causal mapping technique based on the frameworks of interpretive structural modeling (ISM) and Bayesian networks (BN) – of 11 levels of relationships between SCDs (in supply, production, logistics, demand and finance), SC risk mitigation strategies (flexibility, efficiency, agility and responsiveness), insurance, government support, information and knowledge sharing, digitalization and finally the key firm performance measures (continuity, quality and financial performance).

The results of the empirical investigation reveal and describe: (1) the nature and probabilistic quantification of the lower-level relationships among the four SCDs, among the mitigation strategies and the three firm performance measures; (2) the nature and probabilistic quantification of the higher-level relationships among the impacts of SCDs, SC risk mitigation strategies and firm performance and (3) how to model and quantify the complex interdependences in single firms and their supply chains.

Our results can support managers in developing more effective decision-making models to assess and manage unfavorable events and cascade effects among different functions and processes in the context of risks and disruptions.

This paper aims to develop a process for prioritizing project risks that integrates the decision-maker's risk attitude, uncertainty about risks both in terms of the associated probability and impact ratings, and correlations across risk assessments.

This paper adopts a Monte Carlo Simulation-based approach to capture the uncertainty associated with project risks. Risks are prioritized based on their relative expected utility values. The proposed process is operationalized through a real application in the construction industry.

The proposed process helped in identifying low-probability, high-impact risks that were overlooked in the conventional risk matrix-based prioritization scheme. While considering the expected risk exposure of individual risks, none of the risks were located in the high-risk exposure zone; however, the proposed Monte Carlo Simulation-based approach revealed risks with a high probability of occurrence in the high-risk exposure zone. Using the expected utility-based approach alone in prioritizing risks may lead to ignoring few critical risks, which can only be captured through a rigorous simulation-based approach.

Monte Carlo Simulation has been used to aggregate the risk matrix-based data and disaggregate and map the resulting risk profiles with underlying distributions. The proposed process supported risk prioritization based on the decision-maker's risk attitude and identified low-probability, high-impact risks and high-probability, high-impact risks.