Gour Gobinda Goswami, ARM Mehrab Ali and Sharose Islam
The main purpose of this study is to examine the role of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) test on transmission data globally to reveal the fact that the actual picture of…
Abstract
Purpose
The main purpose of this study is to examine the role of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) test on transmission data globally to reveal the fact that the actual picture of transmission history cannot be exposed if the countries do not perform the test adequately.
Design/methodology/approach
Using Our World in Data for 212 countries and areas and 162 time periods daily from December 31, 2019, to June 09, 2020, on an unbalanced panel framework, we have developed a panel-based path analysis model to explore the interdependence of various actors of COVID-19 cases of transmission across the globe. After controlling for per capita gross domestic product (GDP), age structure and government stringency, we explore the proposition that COVID-19 tests affect transmission positively. As an anecdote, we also explore the direct, indirect and total effects of different potential determinants of transmission cases worldwide and gather an idea about each factor's relative role in a structural equation framework.
Findings
Using the panel path model, we find that a 1 standard deviation change in the number of tests results in a 0.70 standard deviation change in total cases per million after controlling for several variables like per capita GDP, government stringency and age population (above 65).
Research limitations/implications
It is not possible to get balanced data of COVID-19 for all the countries for all the periods. Similarly, the socioeconomic, political and demographic variables used in the model are not observed daily, and they are only available on an annual basis.
Practical implications
Countries which cannot afford to carry out more tests are also the countries where transmission rates are suppressed downward and negatively manipulated.
Social implications
Cross country collaboration in terms of COVID-19 test instruments, vaccination and technology transfer are urgently required. This collaboration may be sought as an alternative to foreign development assistance.
Originality/value
This article provides an alternative approach to modeling COVID-19 transmission through the panel path model where the test is considered as an endogenous determinant of transmission, and the endogeneity has been channeled through per capita GDP, government stringency and age structure without using any regression-based modeling like pooled ordinary least squares (OLS), fixed-effects, two-stage least squares or generalized method of moments (GMM). Endogeneity has been handled without using any instruments.
Details
Keywords
Gour Gobinda Goswami and Nisit Panthamit
Political risk factors play a pivotal role in determining the bilateral trade flow of Asian countries in general and the Association for Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries…
Abstract
Purpose
Political risk factors play a pivotal role in determining the bilateral trade flow of Asian countries in general and the Association for Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries in particular. The main purpose of this research paper is to examine the impact of disaggregated political risk in lowering the bilateral trade flow of Thailand, a prominent member of ASEAN, vis-à-vis her 132 trading partners.
Design/methodology/approach
Using panel data of Thailand with her partner countries for the period 1984–2015, this paper uses four different panel specifications named pooled ordinary least squares and random effects estimations (estimated generalized least squares estimation) of three types by controlling for cross-sectional heteroscedasticity, time-wise heteroscedasticity and contemporaneous correlation.
Findings
Holding other gravity-based determinants constant, for one unit increase in the ranking of indicator of military in politics at home and abroad, trade flow decreases by 5–9% of the total trade flow of Thailand per year. For other types of political risks like government instability at home and abroad, difficulties in investment profile at home and abroad and internal and external conflict at home and abroad, the decrease is also substantial and most statistically significant. The magnitude of loss due to the military channel at home and abroad can amount to US$9.38–US$16.88 bn per year for Thailand, after controlling for other gravity variables.
Research limitations/implications
The reasons for risk originating from different political channels could be explored at the regional or global level to understand their global and local dimensions.
Practical implications
Policymakers should attempt to resolve the political risks at home and abroad in an amicable manner, through dialogue, so that bilateral trade flow is not inhibited.
Social implications
By taking economic reforms only, the trading problem cannot be resolved until and unless Thailand involves her society, politics and administrative mechanisms in a conducive manner to facilitate her trade. A dialogue among bureaucracy, political authority and military is beneficial in mitigating political risks.
Originality/value
The paper is unique in the sense that it makes a solid attempt to identify the potential channels of disaggregated political risk in affecting trade flow negatively, in a gravity framework, by controlling for different kinds of error structure.