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Article
Publication date: 1 August 1993

Zhanbo Yang

Following Ma, Yonghao and Yi Lin's definition of a mathematical model of general systems in 1987, shows the class of all general systems with relation‐reversion mappings and that…

44

Abstract

Following Ma, Yonghao and Yi Lin's definition of a mathematical model of general systems in 1987, shows the class of all general systems with relation‐reversion mappings and that of all general systems with relation‐preserving mappings to be productive, co‐productive categories Answers two questions posed in earlier published papers and poses some more questions for solution.

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Kybernetes, vol. 22 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

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Article
Publication date: 1 June 2010

A.H. Louie

This article aims to be an expository introduction to Robert Rosen's anticipatory systems, the theory of which provides the conceptual basis for foresight studies.

1263

Abstract

Purpose

This article aims to be an expository introduction to Robert Rosen's anticipatory systems, the theory of which provides the conceptual basis for foresight studies.

Design/methodology/approach

The ubiquity of anticipatory systems in nature is explained.

Findings

Causality is not violated by anticipatory systems, and teleology is an integral aspect of science.

Practical implications

A terse exposition for a general readership, such as the present article, by definition cannot get into too many details. For further exploration the reader is referred to the recent book More than Life Itself by the author.

Originality/value

The topic of anticipatory systems in particular, and methods of relational biology in general, provide important tools for foresight studies. It is the author's hope that this brief glimpse into the world of relational biology piques the interest of some readers to pursue the subject further.

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Foresight, vol. 12 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 1 June 2010

Roberto Poli

After summarizing the theories of anticipation proposed over the past century, the paper aims to distinguish between anticipation as an empirical phenomenon and the conditions

2809

Abstract

Purpose

After summarizing the theories of anticipation proposed over the past century, the paper aims to distinguish between anticipation as an empirical phenomenon and the conditions that make anticipation possible. The paper's first part seeks to show that many scholars from various research fields worked on the many nuances of anticipation. The paper's second part seeks to discuss the difference between the capacity of anticipation and the nature of systems able to exhibit anticipatory behavior. The former endeavor adopts a descriptive attitude, whilst the latter seeks to understand what it is that makes anticipation possible.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper presents a theoretical and experimental analysis of anticipation and anticipatory systems.

Findings

Anticipation is a widely studied phenomenon within a number of different disciplines, including biology and brain studies, cognitive and social sciences, engineering and artificial intelligence. There is a need for relying on at least two different levels of analysis, namely anticipation as an empirical phenomenon and the idea of an anticipatory system or the study of the internal structure that a system should possess so that it can behave in an anticipatory fashion.

Research limitations/implications

The literature summarized by the paper is only part of a substantially larger body of documents. More extensive analyses are needed to firmly establish the conclusions suggested.

Practical implications

The paper allows better understanding of the complexity of anticipation and the differences between types of anticipation (e.g. between explicit versus implicit anticipation).

Originality/value

For the first time, the distinction implicitly present in the surveyed literature between anticipation as an empirical phenomenon and the idea of anticipatory system as the study of the conditions that make anticipation possible is raised explicitly.

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Foresight, vol. 12 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 11 May 2015

Rocco Scolozzi and Roberto Poli

– This paper aims to present an overview of deep issues flanking the ideas of system and complexity, and an overview of the mentioned course as a proposal for systems thinking.

1799

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to present an overview of deep issues flanking the ideas of system and complexity, and an overview of the mentioned course as a proposal for systems thinking.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper provides a discursive overview of systems and philosophical concepts related to the described course.

Findings

The review offers a perspective of a super-system that includes the students, the lecturers and the context of their interaction, in which one may recognize a relational framework for social learning of a systemic sustainability.

Research limitations/implications

The overview concerns only the actual intervention in the University of Trento.

Practical implications

The described concepts and related philosophical discussion may contribute to the integration of system thinking in the future studies.

Originality/value

The described intervention is a new Italian context and the integration of systems concepts with futures studies seems not to be commonly established.

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On the Horizon, vol. 23 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1074-8121

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Article
Publication date: 11 May 2015

Roberto Poli

The purpose of this paper is to present the three guiding ideas of the social foresight course, namely, the difference between abstract and concrete futures (i.e. the difference…

631

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to present the three guiding ideas of the social foresight course, namely, the difference between abstract and concrete futures (i.e. the difference between risk and uncertainty); the three levels of futures studies (forecast, foresight and anticipation); and an overview of the early signs of the incipient shift of human and social sciences from their so-far predominant past-orientation to a new, still unfolding, future-orientation.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper is a reconstruction of the guiding ideas that have been used for designing the social foresight course.

Findings

As far as anticipation is concerned, the authors’ understanding of anticipation is still cursory, and the novelty of the perspective may conceal the difficulty implied by this otherwise refreshingly new vision. The theory is at such an early phase of development that it still lacks a unified conceptual language for theorizing and operationalizing anticipation to facilitate cross-disciplinary conversations.

Originality/value

The ability to anticipate in complex environments may improve the resilience of societies under threat from a global proliferation of agents and forces by articulating insecurities through anticipatory processes. However, to achieve this end, the joint expertise and theoretical awareness of both the futurists and the human and social scientists is needed.

Details

On the Horizon, vol. 23 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1074-8121

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Article
Publication date: 25 January 2013

Roberto Poli

The purpose of this paper is to explain why finding a theory for futures studies is such a demanding task. In particular, the paper paves the way towards a theoretical framework

309

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explain why finding a theory for futures studies is such a demanding task. In particular, the paper paves the way towards a theoretical framework that goes beyond both positivism and anti‐positivism.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper discusses a network of mutually interlinked concepts, including: levels of reality; parts and wholes; causation; the multiplicity of times; anticipation; the thick present; and latents.

Findings

The paper presents the two main obstructions blocking the way towards a theory for futures studies (namely, the belief that the opposition between positivists and anti‐positivists is exhaustive, and the need for better connections with other sciences such as biology, cognitive science and the social sciences.

Research limitations/implications

The paper discusses only one of the different threads in the elaboration of a theoretical basis for futures studies, namely the components closer to science.

Social implications

A proper theory for futures studies will contribute to making them more robust and efficient.

Originality/value

The general framework presented by the paper extends well beyond the somewhat restricted field of futures studies and includes social and psychological sciences, together with biology.

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Article
Publication date: 26 July 2013

Alun Epps and Catherine Demangeot

This paper aims to examine the challenges and opportunities faced by the contemporary marketer looking to the future of the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the challenges and opportunities faced by the contemporary marketer looking to the future of the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Design/methodology/approach

Based on a review of the literature, futures studies and concepts originating from expert opinion, this paper explores futures studies, multiculturalism and international vs local branding in the context of the UAE.

Findings

The main challenges of operating in this environment include the cultural diversity and sensitivity of its consumers and short‐termism. Firms most likely to succeed in such a market are those which choose to honour and celebrate differences, thus promoting a form of common, multicultural identity among residents. A consideration of futures scenarios is essential for successful marketers in such a different and new market.

Practical implications

The difficulties of marketing in such a diversified marketplace and service‐scape as the UAE should be addressed. A culture of patience, tolerance and empathy needs to be established. With such a range of highly non‐homogeneous consumers, commonalities need to be embraced through acknowledging and celebrating differences, and a culture of multicultural inclusion practised. By looking at what has happened in a very short space of time and extrapolating forwards, an impression of what is to come in the UAE, and to a certain extent other locations, is envisaged. The need for marketers to build strategic flexibility to adapt to changes in the social, political and cultural environment is highlighted.

Social implications

It is intended that such collaborative efforts as those reported in the paper and the opinions generated therein will engender deeper understanding and progress for the future of the UAE and the region.

Originality/value

The paper presents a novel and progressive approach to marketing to multicultural populations, bearing in mind a range of possible futures.

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Article
Publication date: 28 July 2020

Alan Clardy

The purpose of this paper is to develop an ontological foundation for future studies, based in part on integrating some prior albeit incomplete work in this area.

365

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to develop an ontological foundation for future studies, based in part on integrating some prior albeit incomplete work in this area.

Design/methodology/approach

This manuscript is based on a literature review, as well as on conceptual and theoretical enhancements from this subject field.

Findings

As the future does not exist (it is always something yet to come), the ontological foundations for studying the future must be based on the current reality of the physical, biological and social-psychological worlds of experience and ideas. From this basis, 10 postulates are provided that are based on that current reality and are applied to studying the future. Thus, by characterizing the current reality and how it is understood by people, meaningful statements about the future are possible.

Practical implications

For each ontological postulate, one or more implications for the study of the future are provided as guidelines for practice.

Originality/value

This manuscript integrates and builds on prior offerings about ontological concerns into a comprehensive framework that legitimates and focuses the practices of studying the future.

Details

foresight, vol. 22 no. 5/6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 2 February 2015

Maurice Yolles and Gerhard Fink

Anticipating behaviour and responding to the needs of complexity and problematic issues requires modelling to facilitate analysis and diagnosis. Using arguments of anticipation as…

158

Abstract

Purpose

Anticipating behaviour and responding to the needs of complexity and problematic issues requires modelling to facilitate analysis and diagnosis. Using arguments of anticipation as an imperative for inquiry, the purpose of this paper is to introduce generic modelling for living systems theory, and assign the number of generic constructs to orders of simplex modelling. An nth simplex order rests in an nth order simplex cybernetic space. A general modelling theory of higher orders of simplexity is given, where each higher order responds to every generic construct involved, the properties of which determining the rules of the complex system being that is represented. Higher orders of simplexity also explain greater degrees of complexity relatively simply, and give rise to the development of new paradigms that are better able to explain perceived complex phenomena.

Design/methodology/approach

This is part 2 of three linked papers. Using principles that arise from Schwarz’s living systems set within a framework provided by cultural agency theory, and with a rationale provided by Rosen’s and Dubois’ concepts of anticipation, the papers develop a general modelling theory of simplex orders. They show that with the development of new higher orders, paradigm shifts can occur that become responsible for new ways of seeing and resolving stubborn problematic issues. Part 1 established the fundamentals for a theory of modelling associated with cybernetic orders. Using this, in this part 2 the authors establish the principles of cybernetic orders using simplex modelling. This will include a general theory of generic modelling. In part 3 the authors shall extend this, developing a fourth-order simplex model, and exploring the potential for higher orders using recursive techniques through cultural agency theory.

Findings

Cultural agency theory can be used to generate higher simplex through principles of recursion, and hence to create a potential for the generation of families of new paradigms. The idea of conceptual emergence is also tied to the rise of new paradigms.

Research limitations/implications

The use of higher order simplex models to represent complex situations provides the ability to condense explanation concerning the development of particular system behaviours, and hence simplify the way in which the authors analyse, diagnose and anticipate behaviour in complex situations. Illustration is also given showing how the theory can explain the emergence of new paradigms.

Practical implications

Cultural agency can be used to structure problem issues that may otherwise be problematic, within both a top-down and bottom up approach. It may also be used to assist in establishing behavioural anticipation given an appropriate modelling approach. It may also be used to improve and compress explanation of complex situations.

Originality/value

A new theory of simplex orders arises from the new concept of generic modelling, illustrating cybernetic order. This permits the possibility of improved analysis and diagnosis of problematic situations belonging to complex situations through the use of higher order simplex models, and facilitates improvement in behavioural anticipation.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 44 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

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Article
Publication date: 25 January 2013

Anthony Hodgson

The purpose of this paper is to propose that conceptions of time and future that are currently in use restrict the possibilities for framing decision making. By privileging the

735

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to propose that conceptions of time and future that are currently in use restrict the possibilities for framing decision making. By privileging the notion of present moment over that of linear time, a more comprehensive framing of what it means to consider what influences our judgements. The ontology of the present moment provides a theoretical context for knowing what we can of the future in a more comprehensive way.

Design/methodology/approach

A review of ways of knowing the future that extends beyond linear assumptions of time leads to consideration of anticipatory systems and of the relationship between purpose and causality. It leads further into conjecture that the present moment is more ontologically fundamental than what we customarily refer to as past, present and future.

Findings

On this foundation, examination of experience of now reveals a multidimensionality which can include retrocausality, the possibility of the future influencing the present and the importance of latent patterning in determining events.

Research limitations/implications

The notion of the present moment has much in common with second order cybernetics and indicates a possible way of bringing systems thinking, especially boundary critique, to futures thinking and strategic decision making.

Practical implications

Although basically a theoretical paper, the framework does suggest possibilities for redesigning futures practice through using the present moment as a meta‐framing critique technique to reveal more clearly underlying assumptions in both futures studies and systems thinking.

Originality/value

In the context of a world where serious inability to see what is coming is pervasive in management and governance, a fresh look at fundamental assumptions may reveal flawed decision thinking and indicate ways of improvement.

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