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The equity premium of the S&P 500 index is explained in this paper by several variables that can be grouped into fundamental, behavioral, and macroeconomic factors. We hypothesize that the statistical significance of these variables changes across economic regimes. The three regimes we consider are the low‐volatility, medium‐volatility, and high‐volatility regimes in contrast to previous studies that do not differentiate across economic regimes. By using the three‐state Markov switching regime econometric methodology, we confirm that the statistical significance of the independent variables representing fundamentals, macroeconomic conditions, and a behavioral variable changes across economic regimes. Our findings offer an improved understanding of what moves the equity premium across economic regimes than what we can learn from single‐equation estimation. Our results also confirm the significance of momentum as a behavioral variable across all economic regimes

Quantitative easing (QE) allowed the US economy to stabilize and return to slow growth. Oil prices increased to $100 during 2010–2013. Then in June 2014, they plunged again dramatically to $40. The purpose of this paper is to develop and test a model that describes the price of oil as depending on six inputs: Federal assets accumulated by the Federal Reserve during the period of QE, the 10-Year Treasury note rate, the price of copper, the trade-weighted dollar, the S&P 500 Index and the US high yield rate for bonds rated CCC or below.

We use 771 overlapping 52-week regressions to capture short-run oil price dynamics.

We find that QE was statistically significant only during 2009–2010, while the US high yield rate played a more significant role, both during and after the crisis.

This paper does not explain the behavior of oil prices prior to 2003.

This paper emphasizes the role of the high yield rate on fracking technology in financing the extraction and production of oil.

The paper has both the theoretical value for researchers in the area of energy, as well as practical application for the oil industry.

The new Silk Road provides cross-border-e-commerce firms with an opportunity to widen their markets. Under this circumstance, the preference recognition of countries and inventory allocation among overseas warehouses both become critical issues to solve. Three Chinese smartphone brands, including HTC, Huawei, and MI, are selected in this chapter for their relatively enormous sales. DHgate and AliExpress websites are chosen as platforms to analyze the sales for data availability. This chapter first depicts key features of the sales and then, based on which, divide countries into several groups according to their preference for phones by cluster analysis. Then, based on the results of cluster analysis, this chapter further models the inventory assignment among the seven major overseas warehouses that were built by AliExpress in 2015. The results show that the HTC seems to be pursuing the “high value with high price” strategy, while the other two companies seem to be pursuing a hybrid strategy of “low-price” strategy and “high value with low price” strategy. This chapter also provides an assignment pattern of inventory among the overseas warehouses based on the real data of sales and costs.

In this paper chaos is viewed as an alternative approach to modeling complex and random appearing behavior. The spatial (static) characteristics of weekly returns and price levels for eleven International Indices are quantified. We find evidence that all countries exhibit similar static characteristics. Evidence presented supports the examination of price series instead of returns.

The creation and growth of economic integration as an area of economics is the result primarily of practical rather than academic interest. Although economic nationalism and antagonism still prevail as the basic form of world economic order, economic history presents us with specific examples and ambitious plans of economic co‐operation and integration. The example of the US is often cited as a classic case study in economic integration. Viner presented a detailed list of conventions, decrees, etc., concerning customs unions. The French Declaration of May 9, 1950, which led to the formation of the European Coal and Steel Community, manifested for the first time the willingness of a government to overcome old antagonisms and to adopt a programme for European integration. The Treaty of Rome and the establishment of the European Economic Community is another example of the trend towards economic integration among industrialised countries of the West, while COMECON is the primary integration attempt by various centrally planned economies of the Soviet bloc. With respect to less developed countries, the world has experienced a number of ambitious schemes such as the Latin America Free Trade Association, the Central American Common Market, the East African Community, the West African Association, the South African Customs Union, the Arab Common Market, the Southeast Asia Economic Treaty, the Andean Common Market, the Carribean Community and others.

Crude oil, gold and interest rates are some of the key indicators of the health of domestic as well as global economy. The purpose of the study is to find the shock volatility and price volatility effects of gold and crude oil market on interest rates in India.

This study finds the mutual and directional association of the volatility of gold, crude oil and interest rates in India. The bi-variate GARCH models (Diagonal VEC GARCH and BEKK GARCH) are applied on the sample data of gold price, crude oil price and yield (interest rate) gathered from November 30, 2015 to November 16, 2020 (weekly basis) to investigate the volatility association including the volatility spillover effect in the three markets.

The main findings of the study focus on having a long-term conditional correlation between gold and interest rates, but there is no evidence of volatility spillover from gold and crude oil on the interest rates. The findings of the study are of great importance especially to the policymakers, as they state that the fluctuations in prices of gold and crude oil do not adversely impact the interest rates in India. Therefore, the fluctuations in prices of gold and crude may generally impact the economy, but it has nothing to do with interest rate in particular. This implies that domestic and foreign investments in the country will not be affected by gold and crude oil that are largely driven by interest rates in the country.

Gold and crude oil are two very important commodities that have their importance not only for domestic affairs but also for international business. They veritably influence the economy including forex exchange for any nation. In addition to this, the researchers believe the findings will provide insights to policymakers, stakeholders and investors.

Gold and crude oil undoubtedly influence the exchange rates but their impact on the interest rates in an economy is not definite and remains ambiguous owing to the mixed findings of the studies. The lack of studies related to the impact of gold and crude oil on the interest rates, despite them being essentials for the health of any economy is the main motivation of this study. This study is novel as it investigates the volatility impact of crude oil and gold on interest rates and contributes to the existing literature with its findings.

This paper aims to investigate the contemporaneous link between price volatility and trading volume in the futures markets of energy.

Non-parametric (local linear) regression models and formal statistical tests are used to assess monotonicity, linearity and symmetry. The data are daily price and volumes from five futures markets (West Texas Intermediate, Brent, gasoline, heating oil and natural gas) in the USA.

Trading volume and price volatility have, in all markets, a strong nonlinear relation to each other. There are violations of monotonicity locally but not globally. The qualitative nature of the price shocks may have implications for the trading activity locally.

To the authors’ best knowledge, this is the first manuscript that investigates simultaneously and formally all the three important issues (i.e. monotonicity, linearity and asymmetry) for the price volatility–volume relationship using a highly flexible nonparametric approach.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between closing prices and trading volume in the livestock futures markets of lean hogs, live cattle and feeder cattle.

The parametric quantile regressions methodology is used. Daily data between January 1, 2010 and July 31, 2019 were used.

Findings suggest that the relationship between the two variables is non-linear. Price-volume relationship is positive (negative) under positive (negative) returns. Furthermore, co-movement is weaker at the lower quantiles and stronger at the higher quantiles. Results are in line with the empirical findings of the price-volume relationship in six agricultural futures markets from the study by Fousekis and Tzaferi (2019).

This is the first study that uses the parametric quantile regressions method in the livestock futures market, to examine the returns-volume dependence.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the contemporaneous and causal relationship between returns (volatility) and trading volume in the Indian currency futures market for selected currency pairs; USD-INR, EUR-INR, GBP-INR and JPY-INR, from August 2008 to December 2014.

The data for all the currency futures series has been taken from National Stock Exchange of India Limited which represents the daily settlement prices along with trading volume. The contemporaneous returns-volume relation is tested using the generalized method of moments, and Granger-causality framework impulse response function is used to test the predictive ability of returns (volatility) and volume for each other.

The author reports a positive contemporaneous relationship between futures returns and trading volume which persists even after controlling for heteroskedasticity providing support to mixture of distribution hypothesis. The results show a unidirectional Granger causality from futures returns to volume. However, there is a significant bidirectional Granger causality between returns volatility and volume lending support to sequential arrival of information hypothesis. Next, the results for cross-currencies show significant influence of US dollar on the volume and returns of all other currencies. Overall, the author suggests that the short- to medium-term movements in the currency markets are dominated by market microstructure and not by fundamentals.

The findings of this paper are very important for the participants in the market and regulators. The participants in the market require alternatives to diversify their risk. The significant relationship between futures returns (volatility) and trading volume implies that the current trading volume help predict the futures prices and should lead to creation of more reliable hedging strategies for investment purposes. Further, it may interest the regulators who need to decide upon the appropriateness of their policies in the currency futures market. Based on returns-volume relation, they need to set forth market restrictions such as daily price movement and position limits.

To the best of the knowledge, no study has yet investigated the forecast ability of trading volume to price changes and their volatility in the Indian currency futures market. Given that currency futures market is one of the largest markets in the world, and Indian rupee has seen wide fluctuations in the recent years, it seems exciting to explore the price-volume relationship in the Indian currency futures market.