Search results

We investigate the Bayesian approach to model comparison within a two-country framework with nominal rigidities using the workhorse New Keynesian open-economy model of Martínez-García and Wynne (2010). We discuss the trade-offs that monetary policy – characterized by a Taylor-type rule – faces in an interconnected world, with perfectly flexible exchange rates. We then use posterior model probabilities to evaluate the weight of evidence in support of such a model when estimated against more parsimonious specifications that either abstract from monetary frictions or assume autarky by means of controlled experiments that employ simulated data. We argue that Bayesian model comparison with posterior odds is sensitive to sample size and the choice of observable variables for estimation. We show that posterior model probabilities strongly penalize overfitting, which can lead us to favor a less parameterized model against the true data-generating process when the two become arbitrarily close to each other. We also illustrate that the spillovers from monetary policy across countries have an added confounding effect.

Open-Economy models are central to the discussion of the trade-offs monetary policy faces in an increasingly more globalized world (e.g., Marínez-García & Wynne, 2010), but bringing them to the data is not without its challenges. Controlling for misspecification bias, we trace the problem of uncertainty surrounding structural parameter estimation in the context of a fully specified New Open Economy Macro (NOEM) model partly to sample size. We suggest that standard macroeconomic time series with a coverage of less than forty years may not be informative enough for some parameters of interest to be recovered with precision. We also illustrate how uncertainty also arises from weak structural identification, irrespective of the sample size. This remains a concern for empirical research and we recommend estimation with simulated observations before using actual data as a way of detecting structural parameters that are prone to weak identification. We also recommend careful evaluation and documentation of the implementation strategy (specially in the selection of observables) as it can have significant effects on the strength of identification of key model parameters.

This volume of Advances in Econometrics is devoted to dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, which have gained popularity in both academic and policy circles as a theoretically and methodologically coherent way of analyzing a variety of issues in empirical macroeconomics. The volume is divided into two parts. The first part covers important topics in DSGE modeling and estimation practice, including the modeling and role of expectations, the study of alternative pricing models, the problem of non-invertibility in structural VARs, the possible weak identification in new open economy macro models, and the modeling of trend inflation. The second part is devoted to innovations in econometric methodology. The papers in this section advance new techniques for addressing key theoretical and inferential problems and include discussion and applications of Laplace-type, frequency domain, empirical likelihood, and method of moments estimators.

Empirical work in macroeconomics almost universally relies on the hypothesis of rational expectations (RE).

This chapter departs from the literature by considering a variety of alternative expectations formation models. We study the econometric properties of a popular New Keynesian monetary DSGE model under different expectational assumptions: the benchmark case of RE, RE extended to allow for “news” about future shocks, near-RE and learning, and observed subjective expectations from surveys.

The results show that the econometric evaluation of the model is extremely sensitive to how expectations are modeled. The posterior distributions for the structural parameters significantly shift when the assumption of RE is modified. Estimates of the structural disturbances under different expectation processes are often dissimilar.

The modeling of expectations has important effects on the ability of the model to fit macroeconomic time series. The model achieves its worse fit under RE. The introduction of news improves fit. The best-fitting specifications, however, are those that assume learning. Expectations also have large effects on forecasting. Survey expectations, news, and learning all work to improve the model's one-step-ahead forecasting accuracy. RE, however, dominate over longer horizons, such as one-year ahead or beyond.

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between control by the Maltese Central Government on Local Government and the format and basis of budgetary and financial reporting used. The study analyses the role of reporting in agency and fiscal federalism theories.

Semi-structured interviews were carried out with the controller (Central Government officials and the National Audit Office), while a survey was carried out with the controlled (Maltese Local Councils).

The type of reporting used by Maltese Local Councils may be undermining the control that Central Government seeks to exercise on overspending and debt levels. The Local Councils’ financial statements report accrual deficits and increasing liabilities. This overspending appears to slip through Parliamentary scrutiny because the latter approves cash allocations to Local Councils; the financial reports submitted to Parliament do not highlight overspending in cash terms; and the cash budget execution report that should be prepared by Local Councils is not given due importance.

Central Government should be consistent in its policy towards Local Government, which may require more elaborate reporting. This study highlights the importance of aligning the reporting required (top-down) and the reporting presented (bottom-up) – otherwise, control is at stake.

The purpose of this paper is to examine public sector accounting reforms, mainly the adoption and implementation of the Cash Basis International Public Sector Accounting Standard (IPSAS) in the Central Government of Bangladesh.

Drawing on the ideas of new institutionalism, the paper investigates the factors which have forced the country to accept the Cash Basis IPSAS but have delayed its implementation in practice.

Different approaches towards the Cash Basis IPSAS are now distinct in the Central Government of Bangladesh. Differences between Bangladesh and other emerging economies have been narrowed as the potency of institutional pressures has increased, and there is a risk, as experienced in other emerging economies, that the very adoption of the Cash Basis IPSAS may remain more a rhetoric than a reality in Bangladesh. The paper demonstrates that the extent to which professional accountants and their associations participate in reforms determines the public sector accounting reform trajectories in emerging economies.

The paper demonstrates that reforms driven by indigenous administrators can have the potential of becoming more instrumental in emerging economies than the externally propagated reforms, such as IPSASs and accrual accounting. What is important is to advance incrementally those public sector accounting reforms that local administrators have identified as important, that they could cope with their existing knowledge and capacity, and that they are interested in engaging with the reform process.

First, the study has contributed to extending neo-institutional theory by bringing out the responses of different stakeholders responsible for implementing public sector accounting reforms, mainly the Cash Basis IPSAS, in practice. Next, the paper has raised a question as to whether the Cash Basis IPSAS could be an appropriate reform measure for the central government of Bangladesh.

Research consistently shows that non-scientific bias, equity, and diversity trainings do not work, and often make bias and diversity problems worse. Despite these widespread failures, there is considerable reason for hope that effective, meaningful DEI efforts can be developed. One approach in particular, the bias habit-breaking training, has 15 years of experimental evidence demonstrating its widespread effectiveness and efficacy.

This article discusses bias, diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) efforts from the author’s perspective as a scientist–practitioner – the author draws primarily on the scientific literature, but also integrates insights from practical experiences working in DEI. The author provides a roadmap for adapting effective, evidence-based approaches from other disciplines (e.g. cognitive-behavioral therapy) into the DEI context and review evidence related to the bias habit-breaking training, as one prominent demonstration of a scientifically-validated approach that effects lasting, meaningful improvements on DEI issues within both individuals and institutions.

DEI trainings fail due to widespread adoption of the information deficit model, which is well-known as a highly ineffective approach. Empowerment-based approaches, in contrast, are highly promising for making meaningful, lasting changes in the DEI realm. Evidence indicates that the bias habit-breaking training is effective at empowering individuals as agents of change to reduce bias, create inclusion, and promote equity, both within themselves and the social contexts they inhabit.

In contrast to the considerable despair and pessimism around DEI efforts, the present analysis provides hope and optimism, and an empirically-validated path forward, to develop and test DEI approaches that empower individuals as agents of change.

The present study aims to focus on the feasibility of using an aqueous extract from the fruit shell of Camellia oleifera Abel as a source of natural colourant in printing-paste preparation for pigment printing of cotton fabric. The effects of pre- and post-mordanting with three common metallic mordants, that is AlK(SO₄)₂, CuSO₄ and FeSO₄ on colour yield and colour fastness properties are also investigated.

The printing paste was prepared by mixing the concentrated Camellia oleifera Abel fruit shell extract solution with commercially available synthetic thickener and binder. The fabric sample was printed with the prepared printing paste using a flat-screen printing technique. To determine the effects of pre- and post-mordanting, AlK(SO₄)₂, CuSO₄ and FeSO₄ mordant aqueous solutions with various concentrations were applied using the pad-dry technique. Comparisons between printing with and without mordants were evaluated in terms of colour strength (K/S values) and colour fastness to washing, light, crocking and perspiration.

Without the mordants, the printed fabric had a yellowish brown shade with acceptable colour fastness properties, that is fair to good wash fastness, moderate light fastness, good to very good crocking fastness and fair to good perspiration fastness. The use of mordants, especially CuSO₄ and FeSO₄, not only enhanced colour strength but also imparted different colours to the fabric. Compared to the unmordanted fabrics, colour fastness properties were mostly comparable or improved in the mordanted fabrics depending on the type and concentration of mordants.

Although in the case of CuSO₄ the light fastness was increased to a good to very good level, it is recommended that the final print be produced with a concentration of less than 0.125 gL⁻¹ to yield the print with the residual amount of Cu metal under the limit, that is less than 50 ppm as regulated by the Oeko-Tex^® standard.

The obtained prints from Camellia oleifera Abel fruit shell extract provided shades with satisfactory colour fastness to washing, light, crocking and perspiration. The extract from Camellia oleifera Abel fruit shell has the potential to be used as an alternative to synthetic dye in the textile industry.

The use of Camellia oleifera Abel fruit shells, which are considered as abundant byproducts of tea seed oil production, as natural colouring agents for pigment printing of cotton fabric has been reported for the first time. It will minimise the environmental impact of this waste and create more valuable textile products.

Global crises create an environment that is characterized by a fight for survival by countries, companies and citizens. While firms have adopted business initiatives to ensure survival in a global crisis, many measures are geared toward preventing customer churn, declining revenues and eroding market share. Such short-term focus raises an important question regarding long-term survival – how can firms survive a global crisis? The purpose of this study is to investigate how firms can survive a global crisis.

This study considers pandemics as the study context and uses a triangulation methodology (past research, managerial insights and popular press articles) to advance the organizing framework. Using the process study approach, the proposed framework recognizes the onset characteristics of a global crisis with a focus on pandemics and the government actions that reflect the pandemic onset. The framework also identifies a logical order of three marketplace reactions to the pandemic – management response, consumer response and critical business transformations that ultimately lead to firm survival – and advances related research propositions of such reactions.

By deploying critical business transformations, firms can ensure firm survival in a pandemic by fostering engagement with customers, employees and resources. Additionally, the moderators that influence the relationships between (1) management response and critical business transformations, (2) consumer response and critical business transformations, and (3) critical business transformations and firm survival are identified. Finally, this study presents an agenda for future research.

To the authors' best knowledge, this is the first study to adopt an interdisciplinary approach to study firm survival in a global crisis such as a pandemic. This study answers the call for more research to the growing field of pandemic research in the areas of marketing research and marketing strategy.

The learnings from this study can help firms on what to anticipate and how to respond in a crisis such as a pandemic.

Societal welfare is accounted for as firms plan to deal with a crisis.

This is the first study to propose a strategic framework to deal with a crisis that is largely unanticipated where the duration and the impact is not predictable.