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Due to the more pressing need, the majority of material in this book has dealt with mitigation; interventions to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (IPCC, 2001) away from a scenario of ‘business as usual’. An early academic review on climate change mitigation and transport appeared in 2007 (Chapman, 2007), a year before the United Kingdom committed itself to the highly ambitious Climate Change Act 2008. The final act sought an ambitious 80% cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Although criticised in this book as being unrealistic, this is the level of intervention required if ‘dangerous’ climate change is to be avoided (defined as greater than 2°C rise in global temperatures). As Chapter 8 (a policy perspective) explains, such targets, however unrealistic, are informed by considerable input from expert opinion (e.g. Delphi studies) and require a detailed knowledge of current emissions as well as accurate predictions/scenarios of future emissions. For this reason, scenarios and the control of uncertainty were discussed in Chapter 2 towards the start of this book. Indeed, the commonly quoted ‘business as usual’ scenario is in itself too simplistic and highly improbable, not only due to mitigation measures imposed by governments, but also because of the future scarcity of oil which will force change in the medium term regardless. Backcasting is the key tool used to model the continuum of socio-economic scenarios which exist between ‘business as usual’ and the equally unlikely case of all targets being met. However, the science is inherently difficult and the end result is a wide range of permutations and storylines, largely dependent on mitigation. Early progress towards the 80% target has not been promising, but the decarbonisation of the transport sector is still seen as key in meeting the demands of the Climate Change Act 2008. There is a need to tackle the three primary culprits of greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector: aviation, freight and car ownership (Chapman, 2007). This book has examined in detail how this could be achieved in all these sectors using a range of aspects relating to technological and behavioural change.

Traditionally, statistical time series methods like moving average (MA), auto‐regression (AR), or combinations of them are used for forecasting sales. Since these models predict future sales only on the basis of previous sales, they fail in an environment where the sales are more influenced by exogenous variables such as size, price, color, climatic data, effect of media, price changes or campaigns. Although, a linear regression model can take these variables into account its approximation function is restricted to be linear. Soft computing methods such as fuzzy logic, artificial neural networks (ANNs), and genetic algorithms offer an alternative taking into account both endogenous and exogenous variables and allowing arbitrary non‐linear approximation functions derived (learned) directly from the data. In this paper, two approaches have been investigated for forecasting women's apparel sales, statistical time series modeling, and modeling using ANNs. Four years' sales data (1997‐2000) were used as backcast data in the model and a forecast was made for 2 months of the year 2000. The performance of the models was tested by comparing one of the goodness‐of‐fit statistics, R², and also by comparing actual sales with the forecasted sales of different types of garments. On an average, an R² of 0.75 and 0.90 was found for single seasonal exponential smoothing and Winters' three parameter model, respectively. The model based on ANN gave a higher R² averaging 0.92. Although, R² for ANN model was higher than that of statistical models, correlations between actual and forecasted were lower than those found with Winters' three parameter model.

The article seeks to address the lack of serious, normative scenarios exploring peace in the Middle East.

Three normative, backcasted scenarios were written. These were derived from literature searches, interviews with experts in the field, and input from a three‐round Delphi. Actions were identified and rated by the Delphi panel in Rounds 1 and 2. Draft text with areas for comment throughout the scenarios was collected in Round 3 and used to improve the draft scenarios.

The scenarios address seven preconditions for peace in the Middle East: secure borders for Israel; establishment of a viable and independent Palestinian state; resolution of the Jerusalem question; ending violence by both sides and building confidence; social and economic development; education; and resolution of Palestinian refugee status.

The scenarios are intended for use in a variety of settings to help further the Middle East peace process.

The aim of this paper is to develop a methodology of computer‐assisted roadmapping to supplement an expert‐based approach, which is time‐consuming and subjective.

A computer‐based approach using citation network analysis is used to depict technology trends, and build the first draft of science and technology roadmaps. A case study in energy research is performed, and emerging research domains are tracked in it by citation network analysis.

The analysis confirms that the fuel cell and solar cell are rapidly growing domains in energy research. The detailed research structures were investigated further by clustering. Each citation cluster has characteristic research topics, and there is a variety of growth trends among the clusters.

Constructing a corpus to analyze is not an easy task and one that affects the results, and therefore further research to evaluate the adequacy and validity of the corpus before citation network analysis is necessary. Including patents and analyzing relationships between academic papers and patents for roadmapping is a challenging future research topic.

While science and technology roadmaps are an attractive tool in R&D management and have been widely used, they are typically constructed by gathering and stimulating expert opinion and therefore highly time‐consuming. As demonstrated in this paper, a computer‐based approach using citation network analysis is a powerful tool to support roadmapping. By using the approach, planners and R&D managers can make decisions on effective investment in promising and emerging technologies, especially under circumstances of limited resources with the broader coverage of scientific and technological research.

By using citation network analysis, we can track emerging research domains among a range of publications efficiently and effectively.

Previous studies showed that combining learning based on experiences in the past with learning from an envisioned future scenario results in more innovative and radical ideas, as well as in a higher number of covered content domains. However, currently there is no holistic learning theory that integrates both sources of learning. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate whether it is possible to extend Bateson’s theory of learning, to link these two learning sources in one coherent framework.

To answer this research question, the author draws on learning from an envisioned future, and tries to link it with the most important levels of learning in Bateson’s framework.

This paper contributes to the literature by attempting to link the important but still underexplored aspect of “learning from the future” to the complex and multifaceted work of Bateson. Given the fact that both sources of learning and experience yield a great potential to create new knowledge, this study outlines a possibility to include both sources into one learning theory.

This work provides the basis for further research in building a general holistic theory of learning to learn.

On the individual level, the proposed approach can be easily applied with systemic coaching processes in general and coaching processes in the fields of developing an individual vision in particular. In the field of organizational learning, the awareness of different learning sources and different learning modes on the one hand and knowledge about the implementation of enabling spaces (PE-ba, FE-ba) to support these various learning modes on the other hand help organizations to generate new knowledge and create innovative and sustainable solutions, products and services.

To the best of the author’s knowledge, it is the first theoretical work that describes the integration of learning from past experiences and learning from future experiences in a methodological way.

This paper introduces a generic structure for a futures workshop, developed especially to be used in brief practically oriented foresight projects. Based on experiences of tens of dozens of workshops where this method has been used, this paper aims to inform and educate practitioners of futures studies on the method and discuss its characteristics.

The design of the ACTVOD workshop method was influenced by the need to have a futures workshop design that would encourage creativity and allow for the hosting of a futures workshop in a rather short amount of time. ACTVOD takes advantage from several theoretical insights and methods within futures studies. It combines elements from heuristic problem-solving, scenario workshops (focus on finding action plans towards desired future) and soft systems methodology.

ACTVOD is a rather easy and time-efficient way of producing and collecting good-quality insights on the future and bringing those insights to a practical level. Major challenges using it relate to the transition between workshop stages and on reporting, which relies heavily on participants' activity.

This is the first time the characteristics of the ACTVOD workshop method are thoroughly introduced in an academic journal. Learning of the method would be useful for practitioners of participatory futures studies methods, especially those who are frequently invited to facilitate short workshops for varying audiences.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the market impacts of US biofuels and biofuel policies.

Two methods of analysis are employed. The first method looks back in time and estimates what US crop prices would have been during the 2005 to 2009 marketing years under two scenarios. The second method of analysis is forward looking and examines the market impacts of the blender tax credit and mandate on the distribution of prices in the 2011 calendar and marketing year.

The results developed in the previous two sections show that US ethanol policies modestly increased maize prices from 2006 to 2009 and that market impacts of the policies will be larger under tighter market conditions.

More flexible US biofuel policy including removing the blenders tax credit, which does not help US biofuel industry as long as the mandates are in place, and relaxing blending mandates when feedstock supplies are low.

This report makes three contributions to understanding the extent to which US biofuel policies contribute to higher agricultural and food prices. First, estimates of the impact of US ethanol policies on crop and food prices reveal that the impacts of the subsidies were quite modest. The second contribution is to provide estimates of the impact on agricultural commodity prices and food prices from market‐driven expansion of ethanol. The final contribution of this report is improved insight into how current US biofuel policies are expected to affect crop prices in the near future.

The analysis of the main stages of the Belarusian economy's development from 2000 to 2018 has been carried out, the main factors and limitations of economic growth considered. The known models of economic growth applied to the Belarusian economy are shown. It is grounded that the correct use of endogenous growth models based on production functions is hampered by the significant influence of exogenous factors on the Belarusian economy, and it is more preferable to use models based on the balance of payments under these conditions. The methodology for modeling the balanced economic growth based on Input–Output tables' data is proposed, the results of its use are shown. Three scenarios for the growth of the Belarusian economy until 2025 are analyzed: baseline, adverse, and target; the desired structural changes are identified for the implementation of the target scenario.

This study aims to investigate how art events can enrich novice visitors by transforming their practices.

This research uses an interpretive case study of the art exhibition “1/1/1/1/1” in the Oppenheim gallery in Wroclaw. It draws on multiple sources of evidence, namely, novice visitors’ interviews, observation including photo studies and content analysis of art-makers’ mediation sources. This study is an example of contextual theorizing from case studies and participatory action research with researchers as change agents.

The evidence highlights that aesthetic values and experiences are contextual to practices and are transformable into other values. The findings illustrate the role of practice theory in studying how art-makers inspire the transformation of practices, including values driving the latter.

The findings provide implications for transformations of co-creating contextual values in contemporary visual art consumption and customer experience management.

Practical implications to arts organizations are also provided regarding cultural mediation conducted by art-makers. Exhibition makers should explain the meanings of the particularly visible artefacts to allow visitors to develop a congruent understanding of the meanings. The explanations should not provide ready answers or solutions to the problem art-makers suggest to rethink.

The social implication of our findings is that stakeholders in artistic ventures may undertake adequate, qualified and convergent actions to maintain or transform the defined interactive practices between them in co-creating contextual aesthetic values.

The study provides new insights into co-creating values in practices in the domain of contemporary art exhibitions by bringing the practice theory together with an audience enrichment category, thus illustrating how novice visitors get enriched by transforming their practices led by contextual values of “liking” and “understanding”.