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The purpose of this paper is to develop a quantitative risk assessment method for agricultural products cold chain logistics to assess the condition of the fresh agricultural products cold chain process objectively and accurately.

A risk assessment index system of agricultural products cold chain logistics is designed on the basis of the risk identification for the process of agricultural products cold chain logistics. This paper first uses catastrophe progression method and a new maximum deviation method to build an improved catastrophe progression assessment model for agricultural products cold chain logistics. In order to verify the reliability and validity of the model, two representative enterprises are selected as the case in the study.

The results in the empirical research indicate strong support for the assessment model and coincide with the reality. The risk assessment index system can also reflect the key risk factors from agricultural products cold chain logistics scientifically. In addition, the improved catastrophe progression assessment method proposed in this paper can be scientific and reasonable to predict risk.

This paper contributes to provide a new risk assessment model for agricultural products cold chain logistics. The new model overcomes the limitation of subjective empowerment and it increases the objectivity and scientificity in the process of cold chain logistics risk assessment. This paper also shows that practitioners involved in the field of products cold chain logistics can manage the potential risk by a set of scientific methods for assessing the risk before the accident.

The paper provides a practical guideline to practitioners, especially for cold chain logistics managers, relevant management departments, and cold chain logistics management consultants. It is proved that the new risk assessment method and the risk assessment index system of agricultural products cold chain logistics can help them assess the risk scientifically and reasonably.

Although the calculation is simple, the new model can overcome the limitation of subjective empowerment scientifically and reasonably, and thus has important practical value.

To construct a scientific and reasonable indicator system, it is necessary to design a set of standardized indicator primary selection and optimization inspection process. The purpose of this paper is to provide theoretical guidance and reference standards for the indicator system design process, laying a solid foundation for the application of the indicator system, by systematically exploring the expert evaluation method to optimize the index system to enhance its credibility and reliability, to improve its resolution and accuracy and reduce its objectivity and randomness.

The paper is based on system theory and statistics, and it designs the main line of “relevant theoretical analysis – identification of indicators – expert assignment and quality inspection” to achieve the design and optimization of the indicator system. First, the theoretical basis analysis, relevant factor analysis and physical process description are used to clarify the comprehensive evaluation problem and the correlation mechanism. Second, the system structure analysis, hierarchical decomposition and indicator set identification are used to complete the initial establishment of the indicator system. Third, based on expert assignment method, such as Delphi assignments, statistical analysis, t-test and non-parametric test are used to complete the expert assignment quality diagnosis of a single index, the reliability and validity test is used to perform single-index assignment correction and consistency test is used for KENDALL coordination coefficient and F-test multi-indicator expert assignment quality diagnosis.

Compared with the traditional index system construction method, the optimization process used in the study standardizes the process of index establishment, reduces subjectivity and randomness, and enhances objectivity and scientificity.

The innovation point and value of the paper are embodied in three aspects. First, the system design process of the combined indicator system, the multi-dimensional index screening and system optimization are carried out to ensure that the index system is scientific, reasonable and comprehensive. Second, the experts’ background is comprehensively evaluated. The objectivity and reliability of experts’ assignment are analyzed and improved on the basis of traditional methods. Third, aim at the quality of expert assignment, conduct t-test, non-parametric test of single index, and multi-optimal test of coordination and importance of multiple indicators, enhance experts the practicality of assignment and ensures the quality of expert assignment.

The purpose of this paper is to provide the extensive review on dynamic monitoring of forestry area in China.

Countermeasure and suggestions were proposed for three aspects including the establishment of data sets with unified standards, top-level design of monitoring and assessment and analysis models, and establishment of the decision support platform with multiple scenario simulation.

Finally, the authors proposed key research area in this field, i.e., improving the systematic and optimal forest management through integrating and improving the data, models and simulation platforms and coupling the data integration system, assessment system and decision support system.

The authors explored the limitation of dynamic monitoring and state of the art research on data accumulation, professional model development and the analytical platform.