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This study aims to estimate the pass-through rate of the increases in the excise tax and TCF tax on tobacco in Vietnam. This study seeks to shed light on how the tax burden is split between consumers and producers and inform policy discussions in the country. Using panel micro-level data collected from three waves of a nationwide retailer's survey, this study provides an evidence-based pass-through estimation for tobacco tax in Vietnam and contributes to the understanding of tax policy on smoking and smoking-related issues.

Following increases in the excise tax and TCF tax on tobacco in 2019, the differential effect of the tax hike on the “treatment group” (domestic cigarettes) versus the “control group” (illicit cigarettes) using a difference-in-difference (DID) analysis has been studied. The study utilized unique longitudinal retailers’ data on cigarettes prices in Vietnam from 2018 to 2019 to estimate the tax pass-through rate for some of the most popular factory-made cigarette brands.

This study found evidence of an over-shifting of cigarette taxes on smokers. Specifically, it discovered that the tax increase is absorbed more by low-priced brand smokers compared to premium brand users due to (1) the limited increase in prices under a pure ad valorem system and (2) the way the Vietnamese currency is denominated. Additionally, there is evidence of cushioning to mitigate price shock on consumers as the real prices increase gradually over the period of one year after the tax change.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to collect and analyze a unique panel micro-level data from three waves of a nationwide retailers’ survey, which captures the changes in marketing and pricing strategies of the tobacco industry in Vietnam before and after an increase in excise tax in 2019. The results of this study could be used as a reference for future policymakers in considering increasing taxes on tobacco.

This research aims to offers a new method for assessing geoeconomic risks in bilateral relations and evaluate the level of such risks from Vietnam’s economic dependency on China.

I apply descriptive analysis to identify asymmetrical dependency in Vietnam–China economic relations and propose a geoeconomic risk assessment framework to evaluate risk levels in bilateral economic linkages.

The proposed geoeconomic risk framework assesses risk levels, which are positively influenced by the degree of asymmetrical relations (vulnerabilities), the net impacts on the receiving economy (impacts) and the sending state’s ability to control economic tools (threats). In contrast, risk levels are negatively affected by the effectiveness of existing mitigation efforts. The framework employs ordinal likelihood scales to rank various risk levels. In the context of Vietnam–China relations, market access for agricultural products and control of the Mekong water emerge as the most risky areas for economic coercion, followed by Chinese official development finance in infrastructure and critical input imports. On the other hand, debt dependency and foreign direct investment in the energy sector are considered more secure areas—less likely targets for economic coercion. Hence, risk mitigation strategies should prioritize reducing asymmetry in vulnerable dependence areas while maintaining current practices in more secure areas.

Methodologically, it introduces a new approach for assessing bilateral geoeconomic risk. Empirically, it provides Vietnam’s policymakers with a comprehensive evaluation of the implications of economic interdependence with China.