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Book part
Publication date: 20 May 2024

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Sustainable Development Goals: The Impact of Sustainability Measures on Wellbeing
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83797-098-8

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Book part
Publication date: 20 March 2024

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Contemporary Challenges in Social Science Management: Skills Gaps and Shortages in the Labour Market
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-165-3

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Book part
Publication date: 14 October 2024

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Sustainable Tourism, Part A
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83797-980-6

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Book part
Publication date: 14 October 2024

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Sustainable Tourism, Part B
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83608-327-6

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Article
Publication date: 29 October 2024

Quoc Dung Ngo, Thi Van Hoa Tran and Vu Hiep Hoang

This study introduces an innovative approach to long-term economic forecasting by integrating anticipatory governance (AG) and causal layered analysis methodologies. Focussing on…

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Abstract

Purpose

This study introduces an innovative approach to long-term economic forecasting by integrating anticipatory governance (AG) and causal layered analysis methodologies. Focussing on emerging economies, with Vietnam as a case study, we explore potential economic trajectories to 2050.

Design/methodology/approach

The research employs a mixed-method approach, combining quantitative economic projections with qualitative scenario building and analysis.

Findings

Our findings reveal four distinct future scenarios, ranging from low growth to transformative change. The preferred scenario, characterized by adaptive change, projects a Gross National Income (GNI) per capita of $30,684 by 2050, with significant reductions in agricultural labour and improvements in human development indicators.

Originality/value

This study contributes to theoretical and practical domains by demonstrating the value of integrated foresight methodologies in economic planning. It offers policymakers a comprehensive framework for navigating complex, long-term economic challenges and opportunities. This research underscores the importance of adaptive governance and systemic thinking in achieving sustainable, inclusive economic growth in an increasingly uncertain global environment.

Details

Journal of Economics and Development, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1859-0020

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