Abyiot Teklu Meshesha, Belay Simane Birhanu and Mintewab Bezabih Ayele
This study aims to examine smallholder farmers’ perceptions toward the adoption of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) in smallholder farmers in the Upper Blue Nile Highlands of…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine smallholder farmers’ perceptions toward the adoption of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) in smallholder farmers in the Upper Blue Nile Highlands of Ethiopia. Available research focused on profitability and economic constraints alone, disregarding the farmers’ perception of the adoption of CSA innovations. There is relatively little empirical work on farmers’ perceptions of innovations. Hence, a critical research gap that will strengthen CSA innovation research and practice includes understanding farmers’ perceptions about CSA innovations and how these perceptions interact with their adoption.
Design/methodology/approach
A cross-sectional household survey was conducted among 424 smallholder farmers selected from five agro-ecosystems. A structured questionnaire was used to collect primary data and a review of literature and documents was used to collect secondary data. The study used a multivariate probit model to examine perception factors affecting the likelihood of adopting multiple CSA innovations. The dependent variables were eight CSA innovations, while the independent variables were crafted from the three pillars of CSA.
Findings
Major CSA innovations adopted by farmers include improved variety, crop residue management, crop rotation, compost, row planting, soil and water conservation, intercropping and agroforestry. Farmers’ perception toward CSA innovations includes: CSA innovations sustainably increase productivity and income; enhance soil fertility; diversify livestock feed and energy sources; reduce soil erosion, weed infestation and crop failure; enhance soil organic matter, reduce chemical fertilizer use and rehabilitate land. Farmers’ positive perceptions of the benefits of CSA innovations for increasing crop productivity, reducing agricultural vulnerability to climate change and lowering farm greenhouse gas emissions have boosted adoption.
Practical implications
Farmers’ perceptions toward CSA innovations must be enhanced to increase the adoption of CSA innovations in the smallholder agriculture system. The CSA innovation scale-up strategies should focus on farmers’ perception of CSA innovation benefits toward food security, climate change adaption and mitigation outcomes. Awareness of CSA needs the close collaboration of public extension as well as local institutions such as farmers’ training centers.
Originality/value
The study adopts a multivariate probit model that models farmers’ simultaneous CSA innovation choices. Hence, this study contributes to the literature in four significant areas. First, it argues for differential treatment of the perception of smallholder farmers about innovations is needed. Second, it recognizes the interdependence of the adoption of innovations. Third, it directly assesses the farmers’ perception, while others use proxies to measure it. Finally, there are limited or no studies that address the perception of innovations within the lens of adopter perception theory.
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Amira Sadik Elsayed, Rehab El Siedy and Islam Kamal Mustafa
This paper delves into the traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) and practices of Burj Rashid, an ancient historical city on Egypt’s northern coast, which stands at the meeting…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper delves into the traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) and practices of Burj Rashid, an ancient historical city on Egypt’s northern coast, which stands at the meeting point of the Nile’s western branch and the Mediterranean Sea. Burj Rashid boasts a strategic location and rich natural resources and has a long history of relationships between land, people, river, sea and climate change, serving as a model for residents’ adaptation to their ever-changing surroundings.
Design/methodology/approach
Climate studies have exposed the village’s vulnerability to climate and topographical hazards such as rising temperatures, shifting weather patterns, decreasing precipitation, encroaching seas due to sea level rise, coastal erosion and high soil salinization. These factors pose a high risk of water scarcity, crop failure in the medium term, potential famine in the long term and declining fish populations, threatening fishing communities. To address these challenges, the Net Zero: Heritage for Climate Action project - launched by the International Centre for the Study of the Preservation and Restoration of Cultural Property (ICCROM) and the First Aid and Resilience for Culture in Times of Crisis program, funded by Swedish Postcode - proposes a research and development methodology through a platform that weaves together heritage knowledge and climate science. The Egyptian Heritage Rescue Foundation has implemented a platform in Burj Rashid as an innovative site to study risks, vulnerabilities and capacities.
Findings
The project will explore root causes, identify risk scenarios and establish a stakeholder map to guide the development of mitigation strategies and resilience-building measures.
Originality/value
By harnessing the wisdom of TEK and integrating it with scientific knowledge, the project paves the way for innovative climate change adaptation strategies that ensure the long-term sustainability of Burj Rashid’s unique cultural heritage.
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Fissha Asmare, Hailemariam Teklewold and Alemu Mekonnen
This study aims to examine the effect of crop diversification (CD), as a climate change adaptation strategy, on farm household’s welfare in terms of farm income and demand for…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine the effect of crop diversification (CD), as a climate change adaptation strategy, on farm household’s welfare in terms of farm income and demand for labor. It explores whether adoption of CD is a win-win strategy on household income and demand for on-farm labor. It also examines the determinants of rural household’s net farm income and family labor demand.
Design/methodology/approach
A household-plot level data were collected in 2015 from 929 rural farm households and 4,778 plots in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. The data comprise farm and household characteristics accompanied by geo-referenced climate data such as long-term average temperature and amount and variability of growing season rainfall. The authors estimate an endogenous switching regression model to measure the effect of CD on the farm household’s welfare, using net farm income and household labor demand as a welfare indicator.
Findings
The results indicate heterogeneous effects of climate variables on farm income between adopters and non-adopters of CD. The study also confirms the win-win effect of adoption of CD with a positive and significant effect on farm income and a reduction in demand for on-farm labor. The results suggest that adoption of CD helps improve the well-being of farm households and build a resilient agricultural system.
Research limitations/implications
As the study used a cross-sectional data, it is limited to show the time effect of practicing CD on the household’s welfare.
Originality/value
First, the authors investigate, to their knowledge for the first time, the existence of synergy or tradeoff in the effect of CD on two dimensions of rural households’ welfare (net farm income and labor demand). Second, they investigate the heterogeneous effect of climate change adaptation strategies on the farm household’s welfare between adopters and non-adopters. This is unlike previous studies that consider climate change adaptation strategies as having a homogeneous effect. However, this approach is inappropriate since the effect of adaptation strategies is different for adopters and non-adopters.
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Nivin Abdelmeguid and Dalia M. Ibrahiem
This study aims to identify decarbonization pathways and energy mix scenarios of least global warming potential that address Egypt’s growing energy demand, while transitioning…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to identify decarbonization pathways and energy mix scenarios of least global warming potential that address Egypt’s growing energy demand, while transitioning away from reliance on fossil fuel towards a more sustainable energy landscape.
Design/methodology/approach
The study utilized an integrated modelling approach, namely the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system, to simulate Egypt’s energy demand and supply from 2010 to 2050. Four alternative scenarios were examined. The reference scenario, RS1, replicates the energy demand and supply change patterns of the model’s baseline until 2050. The reference scenario, RS2, considers 5% yearly growth in energy demand alongside integrating nuclear technology into the generation mix. In addition to two renewables-promotion scenarios, RE1 and RE2, wherein renewables contribute 42 and 75% to the energy mix by 2030 and 2050, respectively.
Findings
Results revealed that greenhouse gas emissions are expected to peak in RS1 in 2050. Yet, RE2 demonstrates the lowest global warming potential. Energy generation costs are anticipated to be the highest in RS2 by 2050 and in RE2 between 2022 and 2030, reaching its lowermost point in RE2 by 2050. Moreover, natural gas is anticipated to contribute the largest share of energy generated in RS1 but the smallest share in RE2, wherein wind energy dominates energy production by 2050. Among all other scenarios, RE2 had the greatest potential to enable the achievement of net zero emissions in the long term.
Research limitations/implications
The findings of this research have significant implications as they provide valuable data-driven insights into identifying mitigation scenarios that align best with Egypt’s economic development plans while also promoting sustainable energy planning. Moreover, the results hold important implications for energy policymaking in Egypt. Policymakers can utilize these insights to prioritize and channel investments towards renewable energy sources, energy efficiency measures and the adoption of clean technologies.
Originality/value
This study addresses a gap in the existing literature on Egypt’s energy landscape by introducing an integrated analysis that combines both energy demand and supply. Previous studies focused solely on demand or supply in isolation, overlooking the interconnected nature of these factors and the specific determinants of Egypt’s energy demand profile. Using a modelling approach, this study is the first in Egypt to comprehensively consider both aspects. By identifying key factors influencing Egypt’s energy demand until 2050, it provides valuable insights into the future energy landscape, evaluates economic costs, examines potential environmental impacts and presents empirical evidence on energy generation scenarios aligned with future demand and climatic factors.
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Siti Nurafiqah Mustapha, Akbar John, Hassan Sheikh, Ahmad Jalal Khan Chowdhury and Kamaruzzaman Yunus
This study aims to evaluate the effect of Piper betle leaf extract towards the acute-lethal toxicity, LC50 of red Nile tilapia juveniles (Oreochromis niloticus).
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to evaluate the effect of Piper betle leaf extract towards the acute-lethal toxicity, LC50 of red Nile tilapia juveniles (Oreochromis niloticus).
Design/methodology/approach
Ten red Nile tilapia juveniles per tank (in triplicate) were used as an experimental fish for the LC50 bioassay. Five different concentrations of P. betle extract; 80 ppm, 90 ppm, 100 ppm, 110 ppm and 120 ppm, were tested on the red Nile tilapia juveniles and one tank was acting as a control. The progress of the LC50 and lethal time of fish mortality were observed and recorded within the random interval of 96 h. The value for LC50 was determined as 100 ppm of P. betle leaf extract. Higher number of fish mortalities was observed when concentration higher than 100 ppm was tested on to the red Nile tilapia juveniles.
Findings
Data obtained shows that the P. betle concentration of 120 ppm accelerated the fish mortality period.
Originality/value
However, adaption of P. betle extract occurred after 50 h, as there was no fish mortality observed within the time.
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Aimro Likinaw, Arragaw Alemayehu and Woldeamlak Bewket
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate change in northwest Ethiopia.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate change in northwest Ethiopia.
Design/methodology/approach
To achieve this aim, data was collected from a survey of 352 households, which were stratified into three groups: Lay Gayint (138 or 39%), Tach Gayint (117 or 33%) and Simada district (97 or 28%). To gain a deeper understanding of the vulnerability of these households, two approaches were used: the livelihood vulnerability index (LVI), consisting of 32 indicators, and the socioeconomic vulnerability index (SeVI), containing 31 indicators. Furthermore, qualitative data was obtained through focus group discussions conducted in six randomly chosen groups from the three districts, which were used to supplement the findings.
Findings
Both methods indicate that Simada is the most vulnerable district, followed by Tach Gayint and Lay Gayint. According to the SeVI approach, Simada district showed the highest level of sensitivity and exposure to climate-related hazards, as well as the lowest score for adaptive capacity. However, using the LVI approach, Simada district was found to have the highest sensitivity to climate effects and exposure to climate-related hazards, along with a higher adaptive capacity than both Lay Gayint and Tach Gayint districts.
Originality/value
Although there are numerous studies available on the vulnerability of farmers to climate change, this particular study stands out by using and contrasting two approaches – the LVI and the SeVI – to assess the vulnerability of households in the study area. Previous research has indicated that no single approach is sufficient to evaluate climate change vulnerability, as each approach has its own strengths and limitations. The findings of this study have significant implications for policymakers and development practitioners, as they can use the results to identify the households that are most vulnerable to climate change. This will enable them to design adaptation options that are tailored to the specific needs of each community and that will effectively address the risks of current and future climate change.
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Alefu Chinasho, Bobe Bedadi, Tesfaye Lemma, Tamado Tana, Bisrat Elias and Tilahun Hordofa
This study aims to analyze the temperature variability and change for the past 30 years (1990–2019) and the future 60 years (2030s, 2050s and 2070s) in Wolaita Zone and the…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to analyze the temperature variability and change for the past 30 years (1990–2019) and the future 60 years (2030s, 2050s and 2070s) in Wolaita Zone and the surroundings, in Southern Ethiopia.
Design/methodology/approach
The temperature (maximum and minimum) data of the past 30 years (1990–2019) of ten meteorological stations and the future (2021–2080) data of regional climate models (RCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were used in this study. The accuracy of RCMs in representing observed temperature data was evaluated against mean absolute error, root-mean-square error, percent bias, Nash–Sutcliffe measure of efficiency, index of agreement (d) and coefficient of determination (R2). The temperature variability was analyzed using the coefficient of variation, and the trend was determined using the Mann–Kendall trend and Sen’s slope tests.
Findings
The results indicate that the past maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures showed low variability (CV = 4.3%) with consistently increasing trends. Similarly, Tmax and Tmin are projected to have low variability in the future years, with upward trends. The Tmax and Tmin are projected to deviate by 0.7°C–1.2°C, 1.3°C–2.2°C and 1.5°C–3.2°C by 2030s, 2050s and 2070s, respectively, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, from the baseline. Thus, it can be concluded that temperature has low variability in all periods, with consistently increasing trends. The increasing temperature could have been affecting agricultural production systems in Southern Ethiopia.
Research limitations/implications
This research did not remove the uncertainties of models (inherited errors of models) in future temperature projections. However, this study did not have any limitation. Therefore, individuals or organizations working on agricultural productivity, food security and sustainable development can use the results and recommendations.
Practical implications
The globe has been warming due to the increasing temperature; as a result, many adaptation and mitigation measures have been suggested globally and nationally (IPCC, 2021). FAO (2017) indicates that the level of vulnerability to the impacts of climate change varies with geographic location, economy and demography; the adaptation measures need to be local. The detailed information on temperature variability and change in the past and future helps to understand the associated negative impacts on agriculture, hydrology, biodiversity, environment and human well-being, among others.
Social implications
The projected future climate pattern helps the country devise proactive adaptation and mitigation measures for the associated damages at different levels (from local to national). This could improve the resilience of farmers and the country to climate change impacts. This contributes to achieving sustainable development goals (e.g. no poverty, zero hunger and climate action). This is because the agriculture sector in Ethiopia accounts for 80% of employment, 33% of the gross domestic product and 76% of exports (EPRSS, 2023).
Originality/value
Temperature is one of the major climate elements affecting agricultural production in rain-fed production systems. Despite this, past studies in Southern Ethiopia considered only the past temperature but not the future climate. Thus, generating detailed information about past and future temperatures is very important to take proactive adaptation measures for reducing climate-associated damages in the agriculture sector in Ethiopia.
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Buddhi A. Weerasinghe, H. Niles Perera and Phillip Kießner
This paper examines how the altering nature of planning decisions affects operational efficiency in seaport container terminals. The uncertainty and the role of the planner were…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper examines how the altering nature of planning decisions affects operational efficiency in seaport container terminals. The uncertainty and the role of the planner were investigated considering the dynamic integrated planning function of the quay to yard interface.
Design/methodology/approach
A system dynamics model has been built to illustrate the integrated dynamic environment. Data collection was conducted at a leading container terminal at a hub port. The model was simulated for different scenarios to derive findings.
Findings
The planner has been identified as the agent who makes alterations between the initial operational plan and the actual plan. The initial plan remains uncertain even when there is no impact from crane breakdowns, requiring a significant number of alterations to be made. The planner who had worked on the yard plan had altered (approximately 45%) the initial plan than the alterations done by the planner who had worked on the vessel plan. As a result, the feedback loop that is created by the remaining moves at each hourly operation influences the upcoming operation as much as crane breakdowns influence.
Originality/value
The uncertainty and the role of the planner were investigated considering the dynamic integrated planning function of the quay to yard interface. The findings of this study are significant since terminal efficiency is examined considering the quayside and landside as an integrated system.
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Abdelhamid Ads, Santosh Murlidhar Pingale and Deepak Khare
This study’s fundamental objective is to assess climate change impact on reference evapotranspiration (ETo) patterns in Egypt under the latest shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs…
Abstract
Purpose
This study’s fundamental objective is to assess climate change impact on reference evapotranspiration (ETo) patterns in Egypt under the latest shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) of climate change scenarios. Additionally, the study considered the change in the future solar radiation and actual vapor pressure and predicted them from historical data, as these factors significantly impact changes in the ETo.
Design/methodology/approach
The study utilizes data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to analyze reference ETo. Six models are used, and an ArcGIS tool is created to calculate the monthly average ETo for historical and future periods. The tool considers changes in actual vapor pressure and solar radiation, which are the primary factors influencing ETo.
Findings
The research reveals that monthly reference ETo in Egypt follows a distinct pattern, with the highest values concentrated in the southern region during summer and the lowest values in the northern part during winter. This disparity is primarily driven by mean air temperature, which is significantly higher in the southern areas. Looking ahead to the near future (2020–2040), the data shows that Aswan, in the south, continues to have the highest annual ETo, while Kafr ash Shaykh, in the north, maintains the lowest. This pattern remains consistent in the subsequent period (2040–2060). Additionally, the study identifies variations in ETo , with the most significant variability occurring in Shamal Sina under the SSP585 scenario and the least variability in Aswan under the SSP370 scenario for the 2020–2040 time frame.
Originality/value
This study’s originality lies in its focused analysis of climate change effects on ETo, incorporating crucial factors like actual vapor pressure and solar radiation. Its significance becomes evident as it projects ETo patterns into the near and distant future, providing indispensable insights for long-term planning and tailored adaptation strategies. As a result, this research serves as a valuable resource for policymakers and researchers in need of in-depth, region-specific climate change impact assessments.