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The purpose of this study was to assess real estate cycles and their impact on property values in Gaborone, Botswana. Investors and real estate professionals in Botswana rarely assess property cycles when purchasing property. This study therefore, aims to assess whether real estate cycles do exist, their duration and the type of real estate cycle that Botswana experiences.

Data was collected from primary and secondary sources. This included sourcing out information at the Deeds Registry Office in Gaborone on residential property sales and a questionnaire to 100 property investors. A record was made of properties that were sold for the period of 16 years starting from the year 2000 to 2016. Secondary data on the other hand was also collected from published and unpublished books, academic journals, professional journals, magazines, reports and monographs. A quantitative approach was used in this study. Data was analysed using Microsoft Excel and subsequently presented in form of tables and graphs.

The findings from the literature review revealed that there are four phases in the real estate cycles (recovery, expansion, oversupply and recession) and each has distinct features that an investor must be aware of to avoid consequences in the property market. The results from the data analysis revealed that real estate cycles do exist in Botswana as identified during the past 16 years. The cycle that Botswana experiences is called the kitchen cycle. It was also evident that Botswana experienced three cycles lasting five to six years each. Furthermore, it was discovered that all phases in the real estate cycles affect property values.

There is relatively little information about property cycles and their timing in Botswana. Therefore, this study may assist valuation surveyors to make promptly informed decisions on property investment through cycle assessment and hence positively inform the public and financial stakeholders. Society might find this beneficial in as far as decision-making is concerned when thinking of investing in real estate. The current system at the deeds office is cumbersome and time consuming, thus making it difficult for the researchers and possibly the public to analyse the property market. This study therefore, may encourage the Deeds Registry Office to computerize their records.

There is relatively little information about property cycles and their timing in Botswana. Therefore, this study may assist valuation surveyors to make promptly informed decisions on property investment through cycle assessment and hence positively inform the public and financial stakeholders.

Society might find this beneficial in as far as decision-making is concerned when thinking of investing in real estate.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first of its kind in Botswana to extend the knowledge of real estate cycles and their impact on property cycles in Botswana.

The paper seeks to examine cycles and common cycles in the real estate markets of the UK, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong and Malaysia using a combination of time domain and frequency domain methods.

The paper identifies the patterns of cyclical movement (if any) in the five public real estate markets, and searches for common cycle characteristics and patterns in international real estate markets. In addition to the time domain analyses, these empirical investigations are further empowered by a frequency domain method that includes spectral and co‐spectral analyses.

International real estate markets are characterized by cyclical behavior that exhibits phenomenal fluctuations. The markets are also pro‐cyclical; they do tend to move together. Furthermore, some differences in the patterns of the common cycles and their lead‐lag linkages are evident.

International investors would probably benefit from diversifying real estate stocks across the UK and Asian real estate markets, especially in the short and medium terms. However, the long‐term cyclical patterns across the national real estate stock markets are not sharply different, indicating that smaller diversification benefits are to be expected in the long term.

Common cycle analysis advances investors' understanding of the long‐term relationship and medium‐ and short‐term linkages across international real estate markets, thereby allowing investors and portfolio managers an opportunity to discern any contrasting cyclical patterns at all frequencies so as to assist in their portfolio decisions.

The minimization of financial losses and costs stemming from the credit recovery process is strictly connected with the time necessary to complete the procedure: in real estate credits, it depends on the liquidity and the efficiency of the enforcement procedures. The purpose of this paper is to test the relevance of the economic cycle in Italy on the determinants of the recovery process both at national and regional level.

The first step is to identify the determinants of the real estate loans recovery process duration by the means of the review of the existing literature. The second step develops an empirical analysis to appraise the relevance of the economic cycle on the liquidity of the real estate market and efficiency of real estate enforcement proceedings. The relevance of the economic cycle is verified through, first, a correlation analysis of the selected indexes with the national and regional gross domestic product (GDP) and, second, a regression analysis of the selected indexes on the current and lagged GDP. As it concerns the liquidity of the real estate market, a turnover index is considered stratified both at sectoral and geographical level, while for the real estate enforcement procedures the paper analyzes indexes based on both the turnover of ended and filed proceedings and the pending proceedings outstanding at the year‐end.

The empirical results demonstrated that, in some sectors and geographic areas, the market liquidity is influenced by the national and the regional economic cycles, both expressed at current values and, moreover, the sign of the relationship is frequently negative. As it concerns the enforcement procedures efficiency, empirical evidence does not support the direct influence of the current or past economic cycle on it, leaving room for the relevance of the competent court specific features.

The paper considers the Italian market, that is featured by a moderate level of the average loan to value and, above all, by lengthiness administrative procedures. The paper contributes to the existing literature through the integrated examination of the relationship between the recovery process determinants and the national and regional economic cycles over different geographic areas.

This research aims to investigate whether and to what extent the co-movements of cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles are linked across G7 from February 1990 to June 2014.

The empirical approaches include correlation analysis on Hodrick–Prescott (HP) cycles, HP cycle return spillovers effects using Diebold and Yilmaz’s (2012) spillover index methodology, as well as Croux et al.’s (2001) dynamic correlation and cohesion methodology.

There are fairly strong cycle-return spillover effects between the cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles. The interactions among the cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles in G7 are less positively pronounced or exhibit counter-cyclical behavior at the traditional business cycle (medium-term) frequency band when “pure” stock market cycles are considered.

The research is subject to the usual limitations concerning empirical research.

This study finds that real estate is an important factor in influencing the degree and behavior of the relationship between cross-country business cycles and cross-country stock market cycles in G7. It provides important empirical insights for portfolio investors to understand and forecast the differential benefits and pitfalls of portfolio diversification in the long-, medium- and short-cycle horizons, as well as for research studying the linkages between the real economy and financial sectors.

In adding to the existing body of knowledge concerning economic globalization and financial market interdependence, this study evaluates the linkages between business cycles, stock market cycles and public real estate market cycles cross G7 and adds to the academic real estate literature. Because public real estate market is a subset of stock market, our approach is to use an original stock market index, as well as a “pure” stock market index (with the influence of real estate market removed) to offer additional empirical insights from two key complementary perspectives.

Real estate projects are capital-intensive and deeply intertwined with economic factors, making them subject to various influences besides local housing needs. This paper aims to comprehensively understand the dynamics of the Egyptian real estate market, examining real estate cycles, driving factors and their correlation and scale of impact.

The study conducts a literature review to explore real estate cycles and their driving factors, along with the relationship between real estate and macroeconomic cycles. It then delves into the dynamics of the Egyptian real estate market, followed by a time series analysis that incorporates five key indicators: economic indicator, demand indicator, supply indicator, capital flow indicator and cost indicator over a 12-year interval (2012–2023), to examine short-term cycle factors, followed by correlation and multi-linear regression analysis to elucidate interrelations among these factors.

Through measuring and comparing the prementioned indicators with different economic and social events, the study paints a comprehensive picture of the macroeconomic environment and the real estate cycle in Egypt. Where demand has been found to be more sensitive and directly affected by macroeconomic factors than the supply. With the economic factor as the factor with the highest impact, especially in times of economic fluctuations, the impact has been immediate and short-term. These findings support the idea that the demand in Egypt is speculative, laying a threat of longer recession periods in the long term and having greater and more direct impact.

This paper contributes to the understanding of the Egyptian real estate market by integrating insights from real estate cycles, macroeconomics and specific market dynamics. The application of time series, correlation and multi-linear regression analysis provides a nuanced understanding of the interplay between several factors shaping the real estate cycle. Ultimately, the findings offer valuable insights for decision-makers involved in urban development planning, facilitating more informed and precise decision-making processes.

The purpose of this paper is to help us understand the real estate cycle and offers an analysis using a vector auto regression (VAR) model. The authors study the key international cities of Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur and Singapore. The authors find four key outcomes. One, the real estate cycle is generally different from the underlying business cycle in local markets for the cities studies. Two, the real estate cycle is more exaggerated in the construction and development areas than in rents and vacancies. Three, the vacancy cycle tends to lead the rental cycle. And four, new construction completions tend to peak when vacancy is also peaking. The authors believe that future research should try to help understand the linkages that drive these outcomes. For example, are rigidities in the local permit and construction markets responsible for the link between construction peaks and vacancy peaks?

Real estate market cyclical dynamics and its estimation via VAR model offers an insightful set of practical and empirical models. It affirms a comprehensive theoretical underpinning for analysing the prime office and residential sectors of the capitol cities of Kuala Lumpur, Singapore and Hong Kong in the fast developing Asia region. Its unrestricted form also provides an effective and insightful way of modelling real estate market cyclical dynamics utilising only real estate market indicators, furnished by real estate market data providers.

The office rental VAR model for Singapore (SOR), KL (KOR) and HK (HOR) show good fits. In the HOR model, rents and vacancies are negatively signed and significant for certain lagged relationships with other variables and with rents themselves. The office CV VAR model for Singapore (SOCV), KL (KOCV) and HK (HOCV) show good fits. In the HOCV model, capital values (CVs) and initial yields are negatively signed and significant for certain lagged relationships with other variables and with CVs themselves. Impulse response functions specified for seven years to mirror a medium-term real estate market cycle “die out” to zero for the stationary VAR models that are estimated for the endogenous variables. The accumulated responses asymptote to some non-zero constant.

The VAR model offers a complete and meaningful dynamic system of solely real estate variables for international real estate investors and policy makers in decision making. Its unrestricted form offers an effective and insightful way of modelling real estate market cyclical dynamics utilising only real estate market indicators, which can be reliably provided by a dedicated real estate information and consultancy provider of international standing.

The theoretical model offers a complete dynamic model system of the real estate space market, comprising a unique system of six linked equations that denote the relationship among supply, demand, construction, vacancy and rent over time, inclusive of price response slopes and lags. The VAR model enables the investigation of the effect of the lagged values of all the variables concerned. It also enables the explicit and rigorous quantitative forecasts of say rents and CVs when the rest of the variable can be forecasted beforehand.

The intent of this practice briefing is to provide clarity on the role of market cycles in influencing property valuations at specific points in time. Market cycles are important to the valuation function as real estate cycles have been a critical underlying reason for the financial successes and failures of real estate investments throughout history.

This practice briefing is an overview of the role of the valuer/appraiser in decanting out market information and expectations from market comparables.

This briefing is a review of property valuation and proffers that connecting market cycles to valuation will capture a more expansive and inclusive world view that explicitly incorporates consideration of multiple factors that are reflected in market value.

Important implication of this research is that valuers be aware of how profoundly market cycles concepts and circumstances influence property values – and implement that knowledge in property valuation assignments.

This briefing considers the implications of using market cycles knowledge as a core resource for the property valuer. All involved in the property discipline must recognise that market cycles dramatically influence property values at any one point in time.

Societies, cultures, governments, business and places depend upon and have major stake in competent, responsible, informed decisions about properties and property interest. This research contributes to superior property practice – and therefore supports the interests of societies, cultures, governments, business and places.

This briefing provides guidance on how to interpret markets, market cycles and market information that feed into property pricing and market value.

The purpose of this paper is to understand what affects the liquidity of individual commercial real estate assets over the course of the economic cycle by exploring a range of variables and a number of time periods to identify key determinants of sale probability.

Analyzing 12,000 UK commercial real estate transactions (2003 to 2013) the authors use an innovative sampling technique akin to a perpetual inventory approach to generate a sample of held assets for each 12 month interval. Next, the authors use probit models to test how market, owner and property factors affect sale probability in different market environments.

The types of properties that are most likely to sell changes between strong and weak markets. Office and retail assets were more likely to sell than industrial both overall and in better market conditions, but were less likely to sell than industrial properties during the downturn from mid-2007 to mid-2009. Assets located in the City of London more likely to sell in both strong and weak markets. The behavior of different groups of owners changed over time, and this indicates that the type of owner might have implications for the liquidity of individual assets over and above their physical and locational attributes.

Variation in sale probability over time and across assets has implications for real estate investment management both in terms of asset selection and the ability to rebalance portfolios over the course of the cycle. Results also suggest that sample selection may be an issue for commercial real estate price indices around the globe and imply that indices based on a limited group of owners/sellers might be susceptible to further biases when tracking market performance through time.

The study differs from the existing literature on sale probability as the authors analyzed samples of transactions drawn from all investor types, a significant advantage over studies based on data restricted to samples of domestic institutional investors. As well, information on country of origin for buyers and sellers allows us to explore the influence of foreign ownership on the probability of sale. Finally, the authors not only analyze all transactions together, but the authors also look at transactions in five distinct periods that correspond with different phases of the UK commercial real estate cycle. This paper considers the UK real estate market, but it is likely that many of the findings hold for other major commercial real estate markets.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the volatility spectral of five major public real estate markets, namely, the USA, the UK, Japan (JP), Hong Kong (HK), and Singapore (SG), during the pre- and post-global financial crisis (GFC) periods.

First, univariate spectral analysis is concerned with discovering price cycles for the respective real estate markets. Second, bivariate cross-spectral analysis seeks to uncover whether any two real estate price series share common cycles with regard to their relative magnitudes and lead-lag patterns of the cyclical variations. Finally, to test the contagion effects, the authors estimate the exact percentage change in co-spectral density (cyclical covariance) due to high frequencies (short run) after the GFC.

The authors find that whilst none of the public real estate markets examined are spared from the crisis, the three Asian markets were less severely affected by the GFC and were accompanied by a reversal in volatility increase three years post-global financial crisis. Additionally, the public real estate markets studied have become more cyclically linked in recent years. This is particularly true at longer frequencies. Finally, these increased cyclical co-movements measure the outcomes of contagion and indicate fairly strong contagious effects between the public real estate markets examined due to the crisis.

The implication of this research is that benefits to investors from international real estate diversification may not be as great during the present time compared to previous periods because national public real estate markets have become more correlated. Nevertheless, the findings do not imply the complete absence of diversification benefits. This is because although cyclical correlations increase in the short run, many of the correlation values are still between low and moderate range, indicating that some diversification benefits may still be realized.

Given the significant market share and the highest levels of securitization in Asia-Pacific markets including JP, HK/China, and SG, this cyclical research including major public real estate markets has practical implications for ongoing international real estate investment strategies, particularly for the USA/UK and Asian portfolio managers.

This paper contributes to the limited research on the cyclical return and co-movement dynamics among major public real estate markets during financial/economic crisis in international finance. Moreover, the frequency-domain analysis conducted in this paper adds to better understanding regarding the impact of GFC on the cyclical return volatility and co-movement dynamics of major developed public real estate markets in international investing.

The purpose of this article is to describe and analyze the occupational life cycle of Swedish real estate brokers.

Voluntary turnover among real estate brokers could lead to occupational turnover and/or employee turnover and has been described as problematic by both practitioners and researchers alike. Most previous studies focusing on this issue have explored connections between real estate brokers' personality, economic and market conditions and turnover. Employee turnover involves shifting jobs within the profession (real estate brokerage), whereas occupational turnover concerns movement to a job not related to the real estate brokerage profession. Both perspectives on turnover are however lacking data about the average time spent as a broker. This study fills this gap by exploring real estate brokers' life cycle through data analysis using a cohort study consisting of a sample of 5,304 real estate brokers registered and/or deregistered over a ten-year period from 2010 to 2019.

The analysis show that the decline is almost linear, resulting in 50% of the newly registered real estate brokers remain in the occupation eight years after registration. These findings are not in line with previous assumptions as the real estate brokers' life cycle is substantially longer. The results also reveal that there are differences in life cycles due to gender and year of registration.

The analysis of longitudinal, aggregated data on the life cycle of real estate brokers is highly relevant as it serves as a point of reference for future longitudinal studies analyzing the motives for leaving the occupation.