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The COVID-19 pandemic dramatically affected the fire service: stay-at-home orders and potential exposure hazards disrupted standard fire service operations and incident patterns. The ability to predict incident volume during such disruptions is crucial for dynamic and efficient staff allocation planning. This work proposes a model to quantify the relationship between the increase in “residential mobility” (i.e. time spent at home) due to COVID-19 and fire and emergency medical services (EMS) call volume at the onset of the pandemic (February – May 2020). Understanding this relationship is beneficial should mobility disruptions of this scale occur again.

The analysis was run on 56 fire departments that subscribe to the National Fire Operations Reporting System (NFORS). This platform enables fire departments to report and visualize operational data. The model consists of a Bayesian hierarchical model. Text comments reported by first responders were also analyzed to provide additional context for the types of incidents that drive the model’s results.

Overall, a 1% increase in residential mobility (i.e. time spent at home) was associated with a 1.43% and 0.46% drop in EMS and fire call volume, respectively. Around 89% and 21% of departments had a significant decrease in EMS and fire call volume, respectively, as time spent at home increased.

A few papers have investigated the impact of COVID-19 on fire incidents in a few locations, but none have covered an extensive number of fire departments. Additionally, no studies have investigated the relationship between mobility and fire department call volumes.