Pornpawee Supsermpol, Van Nam Huynh, Suttipong Thajchayapong, Nathridee Suppakitjarak and Navee Chiadamrong
This study enhances the financial modelling of companies undergoing an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by focusing on internal capability determinants and IPO proceeds.
Abstract
Purpose
This study enhances the financial modelling of companies undergoing an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by focusing on internal capability determinants and IPO proceeds.
Design/methodology/approach
A hybrid logistic regression and shallow-depth decision tree approach are employed to predict the initial three-year post-IPO performance of companies listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) using data from 2002 to 2021.
Findings
The results demonstrate that these models not only perform competitively against complex machine learning algorithms but also surpass them in terms of interpretability, an essential feature in financial modelling. The proposed approach effectively captures the effects of each determinant, offering valuable insights into strategic resource allocation and investment decision-making during transition years.
Originality/value
This study introduces a novel application that integrates logistic regression with decision trees to predict multiclass financial performance, filling the gap between complex machine learning techniques and interpretable financial models. It offers practical tools for companies and investors to make informed decisions in challenging post-IPO environments.
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Hai-Anh Dang, Toan L.D. Huynh and Manh-Hung Nguyen
The COVID-19 pandemic has wrought havoc on economies around the world. The purpose of this study is to learn about the distributional impacts of the pandemic.
Abstract
Purpose
The COVID-19 pandemic has wrought havoc on economies around the world. The purpose of this study is to learn about the distributional impacts of the pandemic.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors contribute new theoretical and empirical evidence on the distributional impacts of the pandemic on different income groups in a multicountry setting. The authors analyze rich individual-level survey data covering 6,082 respondents from China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom and the United States. The results are robust to various econometric models, including ordinary least squares (OLS), Tobit and ordered probit models with country-fixed effects.
Findings
The authors find that while the outbreak has no impact on household income losses, it results in a 63% reduction in the expected own labor income for the second-poorest income quintile. The pandemic impacts are most noticeable for savings, with all the four poorer income quintiles suffering reduced savings ranging between 5 and 7% compared to the richest income quintile. The poor are also less likely to change their behaviors regarding immediate prevention measures against COVID-19 and healthy activities. The authors also found countries to exhibit heterogeneous impacts.
Social implications
Designing tailor-made social protection and health policies to support the poorer income groups in richer and poorer countries can generate multiple positive impacts that help minimize the negative and inequality-enhancing pandemic consequences. These findings are relevant not only for COVID-19 but also for future pandemics.
Originality/value
The authors theoretically and empirically investigate the impacts of the pandemic on poorer income groups, while previous studies mostly offer empirical analyses and focus on other sociodemographic factors. The authors offer a new multicountry analysis of several prevention measures against COVID-19 and specific health activities.
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Nguyen Ngoc An, Huynh Song Nhut, Tran Anh Phuong, Vu Quang Huy, Nguyen Cao Hanh, Giang Thi Phuong Thao, Pham The Trinh, Pham Viet Hoa and Nguyễn An Bình
Groundwater plays a critical part in both natural and human existence. When surface water is scarce in arid climates, groundwater becomes an immensely valuable resource. Dak Lak…
Abstract
Purpose
Groundwater plays a critical part in both natural and human existence. When surface water is scarce in arid climates, groundwater becomes an immensely valuable resource. Dak Lak is an area that frequently lacks water resources for everyday living and production, and the scarcity of water resources is exacerbated during the dry season. As a result, it is critical to do study and understand about groundwater to meet the region's water demand. This study aims to extend the use of the MODFLOW model for groundwater simulation and assess the overall groundwater reserves and water demand in the highland province Dak Lak.
Design/methodology/approach
The MODFLOW model is used in this work to compute and analyze the flow, prospective reserves of groundwater from which to plan extraction and estimate groundwater variation in the future.
Findings
The application of the MODFLOW model to Dak Lak province demonstrates that, despite limited data, particularly drilling hole data for subterranean water research, the model's calculation results have demonstrated its reliability and great potential for use in other similar places. The use of the model in conjunction with other data extraction modules is a useful input for creating underground flow module maps for various time periods. The large impact of recharge and evaporation on groundwater supplies and water balance in the research area is demonstrated by simulations of climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.
Originality/value
None of the studies has been done previously to analyze water resources of Dak Lak and the scarcity of water resources is exacerbated during the dry season. Therefore, this study will provide useful insights in the water resource management and the conservation of Dak Lak. The groundwater in Dak Lak can meet the area's water demand, according to the results obtained and water balance in the study area. However, the management of water resources and rigorous monitoring of groundwater extraction activities in the area should receive more attention.
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Phuong Thi Ly Nguyen, Nha Thanh Huynh and Thanh Thanh Canh Huynh
The authors investigate how foreign investment in securities market informs about the future firm performance in emerging markets.
Abstract
Purpose
The authors investigate how foreign investment in securities market informs about the future firm performance in emerging markets.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors define the independent variable abnormal foreign investment (AFI) as the residuals of the foreign ownership equation. The authors regress foreign ownership on its first lag and factors and define the residuals as the AFI. The AFI is the over- or under-investment reflecting foreign conscious (clear-purpose) investment, thus better indicating how foreign investment affects firm performance. The dependent variable is Tobin’s q (Q), which represents the firm performance. Then, the authors regress the Tobin’s q next quarters (Qt + k) on the AFI current quarter (AFIt). The authors use a two-step generalized method of moments (GMM) and check endogeneity with the D-GMM model for the regression.
Findings
The results show that the current AFI is positively correlated with the firm performance in each of the next four quarters (the following one year). This positive relationship is pronounced for large firms, firms with no large foreign investors, liquid firms and firms listed in the active market. The results suggest that foreign investment might choose well-productive firms already. Also, the current AFI is significantly positively correlated with stock returns in each of the next three quarters. These results suggest that the AFI is informative up to one-year period.
Research limitations/implications
The results suggest that foreign investors (most of them are small) in the Vietnamese market might choose well-productive firms already. However, if the large investors have long-term investment in tangible, intangible, human capital and so on, and lead to a significant increase in firms’ performance is still the limitation of this paper.
Practical implications
The results of this paper may guide investors whose portfolios are composed of stocks with foreign investment.
Originality/value
This paper adds to the literature to enrich the conclusion of a positive relationship between foreign ownership and firm performance.
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Ornanong Puarattanaarunkorn, Kittawit Autchariyapanitkul and Teera Kiatmanaroch
Unlimited quantitative easing (QE) is one of the monetary policies used to stimulate the economy during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This policy has affected…
Abstract
Purpose
Unlimited quantitative easing (QE) is one of the monetary policies used to stimulate the economy during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This policy has affected the financial markets worldwide. This empirical research aims at studying the dependence among stock markets before and after unlimited QE announcements.
Design/methodology/approach
The copula-based GARCH (1,1) and minimum spanning tree models are used in this study to analyze 14 series of stock market data, on 6 ASEAN and 8 other countries outside the region. The data are divided into two periods to compare the differences in dependence.
Findings
The findings show changes in dependence among the volatility of daily returns in 14 stock markets during each period. After the unlimited QE announcement, the upper tail dependence became more apparent, while the role of the lower tail dependence was reduced. The minimum spanning tree can show the close relationships between stock markets, indicating changes in the connection network after the announcement.
Originality/value
This study allows the dependency to be compared between stock market volatility before and after the announcement of unlimited QE during the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, the study fills the literature gap by combining the copula-based GARCH and the minimum spanning tree models to analyze and reveal the systemic network of the relationships.
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The purpose of this paper is to explain why Vietnam has been charged as a currency manipulator by the USA, and why those charges are less than conclusive, as of May 2021, no…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to explain why Vietnam has been charged as a currency manipulator by the USA, and why those charges are less than conclusive, as of May 2021, no immediate tariffs were imposed.
Design/methodology/approach
A comparative approach is applied using economic data on trade balances, inflation, exchange rates, and foreign exchange reserves from Vietnam, other Asian nations, and the USA. Currency regime theories are briefly reviewed, and USA. Treasury statements about Vietnam’s currency are referred to, which then are analyzed. Further explanations are based on the context of the economic situation and bilateral relations.
Findings
Since 2010, Vietnam’s currency has appreciated, and since 2015, the government has kept the Vietnamese dong (VND) stable in real terms against the dollar. The sharp improvement in Vietnam’s bilateral and overall trade balance is due largely to rising labor costs in China and trade frictions between the USA and China. The resulting US tariffs on China’s exports redirected Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) exports to Vietnam. Even with these recent trade surpluses, Vietnam’s ratio of foreign exchange reserves to imports is lower than that of many other Asian nations. The USA’s recent decision not to impose punitive tariffs on Vietnam’s exports but continue to monitor and hold discussions reflects the reduced priority the new US administration puts on bilateral trade balances and the recognition that Vietnam is negotiating seriously and has significant value in a regional context.
Originality/value
The paper provides a comprehensive understanding from both theoretical and practical perspectives of the recent event. The implications are meaningful for the adjustment of national monetary strategy to avoid a similar situation in the future.
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Matteo Foglia and Peng-Fei Dai
The purpose of this paper is to extend the literature on the spillovers across economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and cryptocurrency uncertainty indices.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to extend the literature on the spillovers across economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and cryptocurrency uncertainty indices.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper uses cross-country economic policy uncertainty indices and the novel data measuring the cryptocurrency price uncertainties over the period 2013–2021 to construct a sample of 946 observations and applies the time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model to do an empirical study.
Findings
The findings suggest that there are cross-country spillovers of economic policy uncertainty. In addition, the total uncertainty spillover between economic policies and cryptocurrency peaked in 2015 before gradually decreasing in the following periods. Concomitantly, the cryptocurrency uncertainty has acted as the “receiver.” More importantly, the authors found the predictive power of economic policy uncertainty to predict the cryptocurrency uncertainty index. This paper’s results hold robust when using alternative measurement of cryptocurrency policy uncertainty.
Originality/value
This study is the first research that deeply investigates the association between two uncertainty indicators, namely economic policy uncertainty and the cryptocurrency uncertainty index. We provide fresh evidence about the dynamic connectedness between country-level economic policy uncertainty and the cryptocurrency index. Our work contributes a new channel driving the variants of uncertainties in the cryptocurrency market.
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The purpose of this paper is to provide insight into the on-going COVID-19 pandemic and its potential influence on tourist behaviour in the short- to medium-term. While the…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to provide insight into the on-going COVID-19 pandemic and its potential influence on tourist behaviour in the short- to medium-term. While the influence of the pandemic on tourist’s perceived risk and its impact on their future travel behaviour is understandably yet to be established, the present paper discusses the potential nexus. Additionally, this paper provides tourism practitioners with some recommendations for mitigating the effect of potential heightened perceived risk on travel and tourism decision-making post the COVID-19 crisis.
Design/methodology/approach
The present paper synthesises contemporary academic literature on perceived risk and post-crisis tourism with emerging information associated with the unfolding COVID-19 crisis.
Findings
This paper draws empirical evidence from studies related to previous health crises and their impact on tourism, as well as tourist behaviour. By discussing previous studies within the context of the on-going COVID-19, it is possible to anticipate the influence that perceived risk associated with the pandemic may have on the post-crisis behaviour of tourists. Also, short-term measures to mitigate the effects of risk on tourism are posited to guide practitioners in the future recovery of the sector.
Research limitations/implications
The COVID-19 pandemic is an unprecedented and on-going crisis for the global tourism industry. Hence, the present paper serves as a primer to a broader discussion within the tourism discourse and provides theoretical direction for future tourism research.
Practical implications
Key to the recovery of the global tourism industry will be encouraging both domestic and international tourism activity. However, while the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on tourist behaviour is yet to be substantiated, previous research predicts a situation of heightened perceived risk and the potential cognitive dissonance that may negatively influence tourist decision-making. To mitigate this potential effect, governance, augmented immigration policy, destination media profiling, recovery marketing and domestic tourism will be critical interventions.
Originality/value
This paper is one of the first to discuss the potential influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the post-crisis decision-making process of tourists and their conative behaviour. As a primer to further empirical research, this paper sets a pertinent research agenda for academic inquiry within an evolving and increasingly uncertain global tourism market.
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Md. Bokhtiar Hasan, Md Mamunur Rashid, Md. Naiem Hossain, Mir Mahmudur Rahman and Md. Ruhul Amin
This research explores the spillovers and portfolio implications for green bonds and environmental, social and governance (ESG) assets in the context of the rapidly expanding…
Abstract
Purpose
This research explores the spillovers and portfolio implications for green bonds and environmental, social and governance (ESG) assets in the context of the rapidly expanding trend in green finance investments and the need for a green recovery in the post-COVID-19 era.
Design/methodology/approach
This study utilizes Diebold and Yilmaz’s (2014) spillover method and portfolio strategies (hedge ratio, optimal weights and hedging effectiveness) for the data starting from February 29, 2012, to March 14, 2022.
Findings
The study’s findings reveal that the lower volatility spillover is evidenced between the green bonds and ESG stocks during tranquil and turbulent periods (e.g. COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine War). Furthermore, hedging costs are lower both in normal times and during economic slumps. Investing the bulk of the funds in green bonds makes it possible to achieve maximum hedging effectiveness between the S&P green bond (GB) and the S&P 500 ESG.
Practical implications
Both investors and policymakers may use these findings to make wise investment and policy choices to achieve post-COVID environmental sustainability.
Originality/value
Unlike previous research, this is the first to explore the interconnectedness among the major global and country-specific green bonds and ESG assets. The major findings of this study about the lower volatility spillovers and hedging costs between green bonds and ESG assets during the tranquil and turbulent periods may contribute to the post-COVID investment portfolio for environmental sustainability.