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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 3 October 2024

Xiaoyue Chen, Bin Li, Tarlok Singh and Andrew C. Worthington

Motivated by the significant role of uncertainty in affecting investment decisions and China's economic leadership in Asia, this paper investigates the predictive role of exposure…

Abstract

Purpose

Motivated by the significant role of uncertainty in affecting investment decisions and China's economic leadership in Asia, this paper investigates the predictive role of exposure to Chinese economic policy uncertainty at the individual stock level in large Asian markets.

Design/methodology/approach

We estimate the monthly uncertainty exposure (beta) for each stock and then employ the portfolio-level sorting analysis to investigate the relationship between the China’s uncertainty exposure and the future returns of major Asian markets over multiple trading horizons. The raw returns of the high-minus-low portfolios are then adjusted using conventional asset pricing models to investigate whether the relationship is explained by common risk factors. Finally, we check the robustness of the portfolio-level results through firm-level Fama and MacBeth (1973) regressions.

Findings

Applying portfolio-level sorting analysis, we reveal that exposure to Chinese uncertainty is negatively related to the future returns of large stocks over multiple trading horizons in Japan, Hong Kong and India. We discover this is unexplained by common risk factors, including market, size, value, profitability, investment and momentum, and is robust to the specification of stock-level Fama and MacBeth (1973) regressions.

Research limitations/implications

Our analysis demonstrates the spillover effects of Chinese economic policy uncertainty across the region, provides evidence of China's emerging economic leadership, and offers trading strategies for managing uncertainty risks.

Originality/value

The findings of the study significantly improve our understanding of stock return predictability in Asian markets. Unlike previous studies, our results challenge the leading role of the US by providing a new intra-regional return predictor, namely, China’s uncertainty exposure. These results also evidence the continuing integration of the Asian economy and financial markets. However, contrary findings for some Asian markets point toward certain market-specific features. Compared with market-level research, our analysis provides deeper insights into the performance of individual stocks and is of particular importance to investors and other market participants.

Details

China Accounting and Finance Review, vol. 26 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1029-807X

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 22 July 2021

Chenguang Yang, Bin Xu, Shuai Li and Xuefeng Zhou

320

Abstract

Details

Assembly Automation, vol. 41 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-5154

Content available
Article
Publication date: 1 June 2022

Bin Fang, Qiang Li , Fei Chen and Weiwei Wan

577

Abstract

Details

Industrial Robot: the international journal of robotics research and application, vol. 49 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0143-991X

Content available
Article
Publication date: 17 October 2008

Irwin King and Yangmin Li

605

Abstract

Details

International Journal of Intelligent Computing and Cybernetics, vol. 1 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-378X

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 23 September 2019

Yi-Ming Wei, Qiao-Mei Liang, Gang Wu and Hua Liao

Abstract

Details

Energy Economics
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83867-294-2

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 27 November 2017

Abstract

Details

Growing Presence of Real Options in Global Financial Markets
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78714-838-3

Content available
Article
Publication date: 4 March 2022

Rab Nawaz Lodhi, Zahid Mahmood and Cihan Cobanoglu

Abstract

Details

Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Technology, vol. 13 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-9880

Content available

Abstract

Details

International Journal of Structural Integrity, vol. 1 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-9864

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 19 September 2022

Christian Fuchs

Abstract

Details

Digital Humanism
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80382-419-2

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 23 December 2020

Chen Yang and Tongliang An

By observing facts of the “reversal of agglomeration” of Chinese enterprises during the period of rapid Internet development and using a new economic geography model combined with…

1532

Abstract

Purpose

By observing facts of the “reversal of agglomeration” of Chinese enterprises during the period of rapid Internet development and using a new economic geography model combined with the data of the real estate sector, this paper deduces the influence of the “reshaping mechanisms” of the Internet on China's economic geography based on the “gravitation mechanism” of the Internet that affects the enterprises and the “amplification mechanism” of the Internet that amplifies the dispersion force of house prices.

Design/methodology/approach

In the empirical aspect, the dynamic spatial panel data model is used to test the micromechanisms of the impact of the Internet on enterprises' choice of location and the instrumental variable method is used to verify the macro effects of the Internet in reshaping economic geography.

Findings

It is found that in the era of the network economy, the Internet has become a source of regional competitive advantage and is extremely attractive to enterprises. The rapidly rising house price has greatly increased the congestion cost and has become the force behind the dispersion of enterprises. China's infrastructure miracle has closed the access gap which gives full play to network externalities and promotes the movement of enterprises from areas with high house prices to areas with low house prices.

Originality/value

The Internet is amplifying the dispersion force of congestion costs manifested as house prices and is reshaping China's economic geography. This paper further proposes policy suggestions such as taking the Internet economy as the new momentum of China's economic development and implementing the strategy of regional coordinated development.

Details

China Political Economy, vol. 3 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2516-1652

Keywords

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