Xiaoyue Chen, Bin Li, Tarlok Singh and Andrew C. Worthington
Motivated by the significant role of uncertainty in affecting investment decisions and China's economic leadership in Asia, this paper investigates the predictive role of exposure…
Abstract
Purpose
Motivated by the significant role of uncertainty in affecting investment decisions and China's economic leadership in Asia, this paper investigates the predictive role of exposure to Chinese economic policy uncertainty at the individual stock level in large Asian markets.
Design/methodology/approach
We estimate the monthly uncertainty exposure (beta) for each stock and then employ the portfolio-level sorting analysis to investigate the relationship between the China’s uncertainty exposure and the future returns of major Asian markets over multiple trading horizons. The raw returns of the high-minus-low portfolios are then adjusted using conventional asset pricing models to investigate whether the relationship is explained by common risk factors. Finally, we check the robustness of the portfolio-level results through firm-level Fama and MacBeth (1973) regressions.
Findings
Applying portfolio-level sorting analysis, we reveal that exposure to Chinese uncertainty is negatively related to the future returns of large stocks over multiple trading horizons in Japan, Hong Kong and India. We discover this is unexplained by common risk factors, including market, size, value, profitability, investment and momentum, and is robust to the specification of stock-level Fama and MacBeth (1973) regressions.
Research limitations/implications
Our analysis demonstrates the spillover effects of Chinese economic policy uncertainty across the region, provides evidence of China's emerging economic leadership, and offers trading strategies for managing uncertainty risks.
Originality/value
The findings of the study significantly improve our understanding of stock return predictability in Asian markets. Unlike previous studies, our results challenge the leading role of the US by providing a new intra-regional return predictor, namely, China’s uncertainty exposure. These results also evidence the continuing integration of the Asian economy and financial markets. However, contrary findings for some Asian markets point toward certain market-specific features. Compared with market-level research, our analysis provides deeper insights into the performance of individual stocks and is of particular importance to investors and other market participants.
Details
Keywords
Noel Scott, Brent Moyle, Ana Cláudia Campos, Liubov Skavronskaya and Biqiang Liu
Asif Khan, Sughra Bibi, Jiaying Lyu, Mohammad Alam, Muhammad Mussa Khan and Mohammad Nurunnabi
This study aims to examine the causal relationship between tourism and overall well-being. The main objective of this research is to inform the policymakers that tourism can play…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine the causal relationship between tourism and overall well-being. The main objective of this research is to inform the policymakers that tourism can play a vital role in shaping the overall well-being in the developing economies.
Design/methodology/approach
This investigation used several time series techniques and procedures that include bounds test and autoregressive distributed lag mechanism to analyze the relationship between tourism and overall well-being in Pakistan by using time series data for the period 1980-2016.
Findings
The findings suggest a significant positive relationship between tourism and overall well-being both in the short and long run. The authors find that tourism and overall well-being affect each other positively.
Practical implications
This research indicates that policymakers and government can improve the overall well-being through tourism development. However, tourism policies and long-term planning should be focused on sustainable developments for achieving long-term goals. Besides, special incentives should be provided to the private sector for tourism development.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first investigation that examines the causal relationships between tourism and overall well-being through objective indicators in a developing economy. This study fills the immense literature gap and provides new directions to scholars to investigate the mentioned relationship through objective indicators.