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1 – 10 of 113Noel Scott, Brent Moyle, Ana Cláudia Campos, Liubov Skavronskaya and Biqiang Liu
Xiaoyue Chen, Bin Li, Tarlok Singh and Andrew C. Worthington
Motivated by the significant role of uncertainty in affecting investment decisions and China's economic leadership in Asia, this paper investigates the predictive role of exposure…
Abstract
Purpose
Motivated by the significant role of uncertainty in affecting investment decisions and China's economic leadership in Asia, this paper investigates the predictive role of exposure to Chinese economic policy uncertainty at the individual stock level in large Asian markets.
Design/methodology/approach
We estimate the monthly uncertainty exposure (beta) for each stock and then employ the portfolio-level sorting analysis to investigate the relationship between the China’s uncertainty exposure and the future returns of major Asian markets over multiple trading horizons. The raw returns of the high-minus-low portfolios are then adjusted using conventional asset pricing models to investigate whether the relationship is explained by common risk factors. Finally, we check the robustness of the portfolio-level results through firm-level Fama and MacBeth (1973) regressions.
Findings
Applying portfolio-level sorting analysis, we reveal that exposure to Chinese uncertainty is negatively related to the future returns of large stocks over multiple trading horizons in Japan, Hong Kong and India. We discover this is unexplained by common risk factors, including market, size, value, profitability, investment and momentum, and is robust to the specification of stock-level Fama and MacBeth (1973) regressions.
Research limitations/implications
Our analysis demonstrates the spillover effects of Chinese economic policy uncertainty across the region, provides evidence of China's emerging economic leadership, and offers trading strategies for managing uncertainty risks.
Originality/value
The findings of the study significantly improve our understanding of stock return predictability in Asian markets. Unlike previous studies, our results challenge the leading role of the US by providing a new intra-regional return predictor, namely, China’s uncertainty exposure. These results also evidence the continuing integration of the Asian economy and financial markets. However, contrary findings for some Asian markets point toward certain market-specific features. Compared with market-level research, our analysis provides deeper insights into the performance of individual stocks and is of particular importance to investors and other market participants.
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Ebenezer Gbenga Olamide and Andrew Maredza
This study is a pre-COVID-19 exposition of the existing situation about external debt-GDP relationship, incorporating corruption into the hypothesis, making South Africa the…
Abstract
Purpose
This study is a pre-COVID-19 exposition of the existing situation about external debt-GDP relationship, incorporating corruption into the hypothesis, making South Africa the object of the study. The aim is to examine the causal relationship between corruption, economic growth and external debt, and in the end proffer solutions to the problems arising therefrom.
Design/methodology/approach
The study employed ARDL technique on time series data running from 1990 to 2019 with real gross domestic product as the dependent variable and external debt, external debt servicing, corruption, inflation and capital formation as regressors. Necessary tests that include unit root, cointegration, CUSUM and CUSUMSq, normality, serial correlation and heteroscedasticity were performed on the model.
Findings
The study shows that corruption, inflation and external debt servicing exert negative influences on economic growth while the effect of investment on growth was positive. External debt's effect in the short run was positive while its long-run effect on growth was negative. Among other things, the need to improve and strengthen public institutions in addition to targeting tax evaders and avoiders for increased government revenue were emphasized.
Originality/value
The study incorporates corruption into the country specific debt-GDP debate as against earlier studies that excluded corruption in their time series analysis or that were cross-country based. The authors also exposit the existing knowledge of the debt-GDP hypothesis before the outbreak of COVID 19 pandemic. This is expected to serve as a precursor to subsequent studies on the rising debt of South Africa during and after the pandemic.
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Florian Maurer and Albrecht Fritzsche
This paper aims to explore the development of the US steel industry from the 19th to the 20th century by applying the Schumpeterian perspective on the concept of creative…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to explore the development of the US steel industry from the 19th to the 20th century by applying the Schumpeterian perspective on the concept of creative destruction. It introduces Game Theory as a means to describe patterns of strategic situations and entrepreneurial decision-making in an emerging industry.
Design/methodology/approach
Based on a narrative literature review of Schumpeter’s concept of creative destruction, four historical case studies have been designed. These historical case studies build the basis for game-theoretically analysis and evaluation. In doing so, the authors identify games with different payoff matrices that take place while an industry emerges, reflecting different layers of creative destruction.
Findings
Emerging industries, as this paper highlights, go through several stages of development until they reach full maturity. With Schumpeter, these stages can be studied through an entrepreneurial lens, highlighting different patterns of decision-making in each respective stage. This paper adds to a better understanding of emerging industries. Furthermore, this paper provides a methodological repertoire that can also be applied to other cases as well, such as the emergence of contemporary digital industries.
Research limitations/implications
The paper provides a horizontal overview of how Game Theory can be applied to analyze industrial epochs and how the concept of creative destruction works in industry and transforms industry. It introduces Game Theory to management and business history as a sound methodological base to analyze and evaluate strategic situations and entrepreneurial decision-making.
Practical implications
The paper presents a comprehensive method to act in the different stages of an industrial epoch and how to act. The games applied in the particular layers of creative destruction give an insight into the analysis of strategic situations and strategic decision-making in the industry.
Originality/value
This paper provides a horizontal perspective on strategic games that can be used as an analysis methodology in the field of entrepreneurship and applied in contemporary industries. It connects historical cases out of the US steel industry with Schumpeter’s concept of creative destruction and Game Theory.
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Andrew Ebekozien, Clinton Aigbavboa, Mohamad Shaharudin Samsurijan, Radin Badarudin Radin Firdaus, Solomon Oisasoje Ayo-Odifiri and Godpower C. Amadi
Several studies have shown that the mechanism of labour-intensive construction (LIC) projects can mitigate high unemployment and create skilled development, especially in…
Abstract
Purpose
Several studies have shown that the mechanism of labour-intensive construction (LIC) projects can mitigate high unemployment and create skilled development, especially in developing nations. The guidelines and practices for implementation may have faced some encumbrances in some countries. Whether the current guidelines and practices for municipal infrastructure support agent (MISA) to execute LIC projects face hindrances in South Africa has yet to receive in-depth studies. Thus, this study attempts to proffer policy solutions to improve the proposed revised guidelines and practices for MISA in LIC project execution in South Africa.
Design/methodology/approach
The study's objectives were accomplished via a combination of 16 virtual interviews of built environment professionals and government officials involved in LIC project execution in South Africa and supported by the analysed documents. A thematic approach was used to analyse the data and presented two main themes.
Findings
Findings show lax enforcement of discretionary funds, lax institutional capacity and inadequate individual skills, among others, as the gaps in existing South Africa's LIC guidelines and practices. Also, policy solutions to address the gaps were proffered.
Practical implications
The suggested feasible policies will improve the proposed revised guidelines and practices for MISA in LIC project execution in South Africa. This guide will promote the development of individual skills, institutional capacities and increase employment across South Africa.
Originality/value
This study promotes the use of LIC to create employment and contribute to proffering measures that will improve the proposed revised third edition of the guidelines and practices for MISA to execute LIC.
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Nicholas Asare, Margaret Momo Laryea, Joseph Mensah Onumah and Michael Effah Asamoah
This study examines the causal relationship between intellectual capital and asset quality of banks in Ghana.
Abstract
Purpose
This study examines the causal relationship between intellectual capital and asset quality of banks in Ghana.
Design/methodology/approach
Using annual data extracted from audited financial statements of 24 banks from 2006 to 2015, a ratio of non-performing loans to gross loans and advances is employed to estimate asset quality growths while the value-added intellectual coefficient by Pulic (2008, 2004) measures intellectual capital. The panel-corrected standard errors estimation technique is used to estimate panel regressions with asset quality as the dependent variable.
Findings
Asset quality of banks in Ghana is generally not affected by intellectual capital. However, when intellectual capital is divided into its components, the study indicates that there are significant positive relationships between asset quality and two components of intellectual capital. Thus, structural capital and human capital efficiencies positively affect the asset quality of banks.
Practical implications
The findings of the study implore managements of banks to increase structural and human capital investments and efficiencies to improve asset quality. Furthermore, the results have direct implications on developments in financial markets in emerging economies.
Originality/value
The study analyses the link between typical intellectual capital and asset quality of banks which is yet to be empirically examined in an emerging banking market.
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Harendra Kumar Behera and Inder Sekhar Yadav
The purpose of this paper is to examine the issue of high current account deficit (CAD) from various perspectives focussing its behaviour, financing pattern and sustainability for…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the issue of high current account deficit (CAD) from various perspectives focussing its behaviour, financing pattern and sustainability for India.
Design/methodology/approach
To begin with the trends, composition and dynamics of CAD for India are analysed. Next, the influence of capital flows on current account is investigated using Granger non-causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) between current account balance (CAB) to GDP ratio and financial account balance to GDP ratio. Also, the sustainability of India’s current account is examined using different econometrics techniques. In particular, Husted’s (1992), Johansen’s cointegration and vector error correction model (VECM) is applied along with conducting unit root and structural break tests wherever applicable. Further, long-run and short-run determinants of the CAB are estimated using Johansen’s VECM.
Findings
The study found that the widening of CAD is due to fall in household financial savings and corporate investments. Also, it was found that a large part of India’s CAD has been financed by FDI and portfolio investments which are partly replaced by short-term volatile flows. The unit root and cointegration tests indicate a sustainable current account for India. Further, econometric analysis reveals that India’s current account is driven by fiscal deficit, terms of trade growth, inflation, real deposit rate, trade openness, relative income growth and the age dependency factor.
Practical implications
Since India’s CAD has widened and is expected to widen primarily due to rise in gold and oil imports, policy makers should focus on achieving phenomenal export growth so that a sustainable current account is maintained. Also, with rising working-age and skilled population, India should focus more on high-value product exports rather than low-value manufactured items. Further, on the structural side it is important to correct fiscal deficit as it is one of the important factors contributing to large CAD.
Originality/value
The paper is an important empirical contribution towards explaining India’s CAD over time using latest and comprehensive data and econometric models.
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