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This study introduces an innovative approach to long-term economic forecasting by integrating anticipatory governance (AG) and causal layered analysis methodologies. Focussing on emerging economies, with Vietnam as a case study, we explore potential economic trajectories to 2050.

The research employs a mixed-method approach, combining quantitative economic projections with qualitative scenario building and analysis.

Our findings reveal four distinct future scenarios, ranging from low growth to transformative change. The preferred scenario, characterized by adaptive change, projects a Gross National Income (GNI) per capita of $30,684 by 2050, with significant reductions in agricultural labour and improvements in human development indicators.

This study contributes to theoretical and practical domains by demonstrating the value of integrated foresight methodologies in economic planning. It offers policymakers a comprehensive framework for navigating complex, long-term economic challenges and opportunities. This research underscores the importance of adaptive governance and systemic thinking in achieving sustainable, inclusive economic growth in an increasingly uncertain global environment.

“The world needs science, science needs women” is the message given by UNESCO in the program for the development of women in science” (UNESCO, 2017). In Vietnam, women’s participation and achievements in scientific research is considered a great and important resource for industrialization and modernization. Even so, are there gender differences in scientific achievement in the social science research institutes in Vietnam? What factors influence the scientific achievement of female social researchers? The answers will be based on data from a 2017 survey with a sample of 756 researchers, of which 77.6% were female. The survey was conducted by the Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences, a leading, ministry-level national center for the social sciences in Vietnam. This chapter analyzed the scientific achievements of researchers through their position as principal investigators of research projects and their publications, and factors that may impact this. Bivariate and multivariate analyses of factors that may affect the scientific achievement of researchers found that gender differences in academic achievement in the social sciences in Vietnam was still prevalent. Female researchers’ scientific achievements were lower than those of their male counterparts. The contribution to science of Vietnamese female researchers was limited by many different factors; the most important were the academic rank of the researchers and gender stereotype that considered housework the responsibility of women.

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the effects of human resource management (HRM) practices on firm outcomes at the firm level in Vietnam.

The paper employs a fixed-effects framework for the estimation using a panel sample of manufacturing firms from small- and medium-sized enterprise surveys between 2009 and 2013.

The paper finds that, on average, a firm that provides the training for new workers gains roughly 13.7, 10 and 14.9 percent higher in output value per worker, value added per worker and gross profit per worker, respectively, than the counterpart. Moreover, an additional ten-day training duration for new employees on average leads to a 4.1 percent increase in output value per worker, a 3.0 percent rise in value added per worker and a 3.0 percent growth in gross profit per worker. The paper also uncovers that a marginal 10 percent of HRM spending results in about 2 and 1.6 percent rises in output value per worker and value added per worker, respectively.

Using the case of Vietnam, this paper shows the important roles of HRM practices in explaining firm outcomes.

This study investigates the optimum size for manufacturing firms and the impact of subcontracting on firms' likelihood of achieving their optimal scale in Vietnam.

Using data from the enterprise census in 2017 and 2021, the paper first estimates the production function to identify the optimum firm size for manufacturing firms and then applies the logit model to investigate factors associated with the optimal firm size.

The study reveals that medium-sized firms exhibit the highest level of productivity. Nevertheless, a consistent trend emerges, indicating that nearly 90% of manufacturing firms in Vietnam operated below their optimal scale in both 2017 and 2021. An analysis of the impact of subcontracting on firms' likelihood to achieve their optimal scale emphasizes its crucial role, especially for foreign firms, exerting an influence nearly five times greater than that of the judiciary system.

The paper's findings offer crucial policy implications, suggesting that initiatives aimed at enhancing the overall productivity of the manufacturing sector should prioritise facilitating contract arrangements to encourage firms to reach their optimal size. These insights are also valuable for other countries with comparable firm size distributions.

This paper provides the first empirical evidence on the relationship between firm size and productivity as well as the role of subcontracting in firms' ability to reach their optimal scale in a country with a right-skewed distribution of firm sizes.

This study aims to estimate the pass-through rate of the increases in the excise tax and TCF tax on tobacco in Vietnam. This study seeks to shed light on how the tax burden is split between consumers and producers and inform policy discussions in the country. Using panel micro-level data collected from three waves of a nationwide retailer's survey, this study provides an evidence-based pass-through estimation for tobacco tax in Vietnam and contributes to the understanding of tax policy on smoking and smoking-related issues.

Following increases in the excise tax and TCF tax on tobacco in 2019, the differential effect of the tax hike on the “treatment group” (domestic cigarettes) versus the “control group” (illicit cigarettes) using a difference-in-difference (DID) analysis has been studied. The study utilized unique longitudinal retailers’ data on cigarettes prices in Vietnam from 2018 to 2019 to estimate the tax pass-through rate for some of the most popular factory-made cigarette brands.

This study found evidence of an over-shifting of cigarette taxes on smokers. Specifically, it discovered that the tax increase is absorbed more by low-priced brand smokers compared to premium brand users due to (1) the limited increase in prices under a pure ad valorem system and (2) the way the Vietnamese currency is denominated. Additionally, there is evidence of cushioning to mitigate price shock on consumers as the real prices increase gradually over the period of one year after the tax change.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to collect and analyze a unique panel micro-level data from three waves of a nationwide retailers’ survey, which captures the changes in marketing and pricing strategies of the tobacco industry in Vietnam before and after an increase in excise tax in 2019. The results of this study could be used as a reference for future policymakers in considering increasing taxes on tobacco.

By adopting the theory of planned behaviour, this study aims to provide insights into how entrepreneurial education (EE) contributes to the entrepreneurial process, especially entrepreneurial behaviour (EB).

The research used a sample of 2,566 students from 16 universities in Vietnam. The conceptual framework’s coefficient paths underwent testing using structural equation modeling, and the mediation effects were determined using the PROCESS bootstrapping method.

The study revealed that EE directly influences EB in Vietnam, despite having no direct effect on entrepreneurial intention (EI). In addition, EE indirectly influences EI and EB through enhancing attitude towards entrepreneurship and perceived behavioural control.

These findings suggest that policymakers should consider the value of investing in EE programmes as a means of promoting EB. Offering students opportunities to engage in real-life entrepreneurial activities, such as business plan competitions, internships with local start-ups and access to mentorship from established entrepreneurs, can play a pivotal role in their translating knowledge into action. This practical approach can significantly contribute to the development of an entrepreneurial ecosystem in Vietnam.

While many studies have investigated the influence of EE on EIs, there is a lack of research on the behavioural outcomes of such education. Furthermore, the findings regarding the EE–EI relationship are inconsistent. Therefore, this study provides valuable insights into how EE can foster the intention and behaviour to engage in entrepreneurship.

Collaboration in agricultural value chains (AVCs) has the potential to increase smallholders’ participation in international value chains and increase their benefits from participation. This scoping review explores existing collaboration models among stakeholders of AVCs in developing countries, examines enablers and constraints of collaboration and identifies policy gaps.

We systematically searched three databases, CAB Abstracts, Econlit (EBSCO) and Agricola, for studies published between 2005 and 2023 and included 59 relevant studies on AVC collaboration.

The primary motivations for collaboration are to enhance market access and improve product quality. Key outcomes of collaboration include improvements in farmers’ welfare, market participation and increased production; only a few studies consider improved risk management as an important outcome. Robust support from government and non-governmental entities is a primary enabler of collaboration. Conversely, conflicts of interest among stakeholders and resource limitations constrain collaboration possibilities. Collaboration involving high-value crops prioritizes income increases, whereas collaboration involving staple crops focuses on improving household food security.

This study may have publication bias as unsuccessful instances of collaboration are less likely to be published.

This study is unique in highlighting collaboration models’ characteristics and identifying AVC policy and programmatic areas where private firms, farmers’ groups, local governments and donor agencies can contribute.

This research aims to offers a new method for assessing geoeconomic risks in bilateral relations and evaluate the level of such risks from Vietnam’s economic dependency on China.

I apply descriptive analysis to identify asymmetrical dependency in Vietnam–China economic relations and propose a geoeconomic risk assessment framework to evaluate risk levels in bilateral economic linkages.

The proposed geoeconomic risk framework assesses risk levels, which are positively influenced by the degree of asymmetrical relations (vulnerabilities), the net impacts on the receiving economy (impacts) and the sending state’s ability to control economic tools (threats). In contrast, risk levels are negatively affected by the effectiveness of existing mitigation efforts. The framework employs ordinal likelihood scales to rank various risk levels. In the context of Vietnam–China relations, market access for agricultural products and control of the Mekong water emerge as the most risky areas for economic coercion, followed by Chinese official development finance in infrastructure and critical input imports. On the other hand, debt dependency and foreign direct investment in the energy sector are considered more secure areas—less likely targets for economic coercion. Hence, risk mitigation strategies should prioritize reducing asymmetry in vulnerable dependence areas while maintaining current practices in more secure areas.

Methodologically, it introduces a new approach for assessing bilateral geoeconomic risk. Empirically, it provides Vietnam’s policymakers with a comprehensive evaluation of the implications of economic interdependence with China.

The consumption of rice that contains high levels of inorganic arsenic may cause human health risk. This study aims to determine As species concentrations, particularly iAs, in raw rice in Ho Chi Minh (HCM) City and its health risks.

A total of 60 polished raw composite samples of rice were purchased from traditional markets and supermarkets in HCM City. All samples were analyzed by HPLC-ICPMS for As species determination.

Mean concentrations of inorganic arsenic in all samples, which were purchased from supermarket and traditional market, were 88.8 µg/kg and 80.6 µg/kg, respectively. Overall, inorganic arsenic level was 84.7 µg/kg and contributed the highest proportion of arsenic species in rice with 67.7%. The proportion profiles for arsenic species were: As (III) (60 %); dimethylarsinic acid (32.2 %); As (V) (7.7 %) and methylarsonic acid (0.1 %). Inorganic arsenic level in raw rice was below the recommendation of World Health Organization. Using the benchmark dose recommended by the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA), all exposure doses were lower than BMDL05. However, as the doses ranged from 3.0 to 8.6 of Margin of Exposure (MOE), the health risk of iAs from rice consumption remains public health concern.

The study results report on the surveillance data of the presence of inorganic arsenic in raw rice products, which are available in the supermarkets and traditional markets, and its health risk to consumers in a metropolitan city in Vietnam.