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Basel III regulations require banks to protect themselves against strategic risk. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive and measurable definition of this risk and proposes a framework to estimate economic capital requirements.

The paper studies the literature and solicits expert opinion in formulating a comprehensive and measurable definition of strategic risk. The paper postulates that the economic capital for a bank’s strategic risk should be estimated using the cost of equity as the profitability threshold, rather than zero and develops a simulation-based framework to estimate economic capital.

The framework closely matches the actual economic capital outlay for strategic risk from our case study of ABN AMRO. It is shown that a bank’s strategic growth plans can fall into one of two scenarios based on risk-return characteristics. In one scenario, the required economic capital outlay will increase, and decrease in the other.

This framework is generalizable and makes use of widely accepted and used practices in banks, making it readily implementable in practice. It does not introduce errors resulting from model selection, parameterizations or complex calculations.

Society would be worse off in the absence of banking and lending services. Banks need to take risks to grow and stay competitive. The framework facilitates better strategic risk management, protecting banks from collapse and reducing the need for taxpayer-funded bailouts.

The paper provides a measurable and practitioner-verified definition of strategic risk and proposes a simple framework to estimate economic capital requirements, a crucial topic, given the threats and increased levels of strategic risk facing banks.

The credit ratings issued by the Big 3 ratings agencies are inaccurate and slow to respond to market changes. This paper aims to develop a rigorous, transparent and robust credit assessment and rating scheme for sovereigns.

This paper develops a regression-based model using credit default swap (CDS) data, and data on financial and macroeconomic variables to estimate sovereign CDS spreads. Using these spreads, the default probabilities of sovereigns can be estimated. The new ratings scheme is then used in conjunction with these default probabilities to assign credit ratings to sovereigns.

The developed model accurately estimates CDS spreads (based on RMSE values). Credit ratings issued retrospectively using the new scheme reflect reality better.

This paper reveals that both macroeconomic and financial factors affect both systemic and idiosyncratic risks for sovereigns.

The developed credit assessment and ratings scheme can be used to evaluate the creditworthiness of sovereigns and subsequently assign robust credit ratings.

The transparency and rigor of the new scheme will result in better and trustworthy indications of a sovereign’s financial health. Investors and monetary authorities can make better informed decisions. The episodes that occurred during the debt crisis could be avoided.

This paper uses both financial and macroeconomic data to estimate CDS spreads and demonstrates that both financial and macroeconomic factors affect sovereign systemic and idiosyncratic risk. The proposed credit assessment and ratings schemes could supplement or potentially replace the credit ratings issued by the Big 3 ratings agencies.