Quoc Dung Ngo, Thi Van Hoa Tran and Vu Hiep Hoang
This study introduces an innovative approach to long-term economic forecasting by integrating anticipatory governance (AG) and causal layered analysis methodologies. Focussing on…
Abstract
Purpose
This study introduces an innovative approach to long-term economic forecasting by integrating anticipatory governance (AG) and causal layered analysis methodologies. Focussing on emerging economies, with Vietnam as a case study, we explore potential economic trajectories to 2050.
Design/methodology/approach
The research employs a mixed-method approach, combining quantitative economic projections with qualitative scenario building and analysis.
Findings
Our findings reveal four distinct future scenarios, ranging from low growth to transformative change. The preferred scenario, characterized by adaptive change, projects a Gross National Income (GNI) per capita of $30,684 by 2050, with significant reductions in agricultural labour and improvements in human development indicators.
Originality/value
This study contributes to theoretical and practical domains by demonstrating the value of integrated foresight methodologies in economic planning. It offers policymakers a comprehensive framework for navigating complex, long-term economic challenges and opportunities. This research underscores the importance of adaptive governance and systemic thinking in achieving sustainable, inclusive economic growth in an increasingly uncertain global environment.
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Huong Lan Nguyen, Belle Dang, Yvonne Hong and Andy Nguyen
This study aimed to utilize Epistemic Network Analysis (ENA) for a thorough evaluation of policy documents concerning the digital transformation in Vietnam's higher education…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aimed to utilize Epistemic Network Analysis (ENA) for a thorough evaluation of policy documents concerning the digital transformation in Vietnam's higher education sector.
Design/methodology/approach
Adopting a quantitative ethnography approach, this research employed ENA to analyse a curated collection of 21 documents that specifically addressed higher education (HE) and digital transformation within Vietnam. The study also incorporated qualitative content analysis, utilizing the constant comparison method as outlined by Onwuegbuzie et al. (2009), for data coding. ENA facilitated the examination of connections among various policy aspects.
Findings
The study revealed a consistent overarching theme in Vietnam's digital transformation policies during and post-pandemic, focusing on key areas such as ADMINISTRATION, VISION, QUALITY, and INFRASTRUCTURE. However, a temporal shift in emphasis was observed: during the pandemic, policies were more focused on ADMINISTRATION and INFRASTRUCTURE, while post-pandemic, there was an increased emphasis on COLLAB, VISION, and TEACH_LEARN.
Originality/value
This research represents one of the initial efforts to showcase the utility and significance of ENA in analysing policy documents. It underscores ENA's potential in elucidating the complex interplay of policy elements in the context of digital transformation in higher education, particularly within a developing country setting.