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Forestry carbon sink (FCS) is not only an important measure to deal with the current global climate change but also an effective way to build an ecological civilization. As an important form of implementation of FCS, the afforestation and reforestation projects under the clean development mechanism (CDM A/R) have important functions such as ecological protection and economic growth. This paper aims to evaluate the short-term and long-term impact of CDM on the county economy and its impact mechanism.

This paper first uses propensity score matching to match the county (treatment group). Second, this paper uses difference in difference to estimate the net effect of CDM A/R project on county economic development to reduce estimation error. Finally, the impact mechanism of implementing CDM A/R project on county economic development was tested.

The CDM A/R project has significantly promoted the development of real gross domestic product (GDP) and per capita real GDP in the region. Because of the long project cycle, this promotion is not immediate in the short term and has an obvious hysteresis effect. The longer the implementation time, the greater the promotion of the local economy will develop. The results are robust after the robustness test that uses the single-difference method. The CDM A/R project has promoted local economic growth by optimizing the local industrial structure, increasing the regional capital stock and raising the regional government’s fiscal revenue and expenditure.

This paper provides a critical overview of the relationship between clean development mechanism and local economic development.