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The purpose of this paper is to develop a quantitative risk assessment method for agricultural products cold chain logistics to assess the condition of the fresh agricultural products cold chain process objectively and accurately.

A risk assessment index system of agricultural products cold chain logistics is designed on the basis of the risk identification for the process of agricultural products cold chain logistics. This paper first uses catastrophe progression method and a new maximum deviation method to build an improved catastrophe progression assessment model for agricultural products cold chain logistics. In order to verify the reliability and validity of the model, two representative enterprises are selected as the case in the study.

The results in the empirical research indicate strong support for the assessment model and coincide with the reality. The risk assessment index system can also reflect the key risk factors from agricultural products cold chain logistics scientifically. In addition, the improved catastrophe progression assessment method proposed in this paper can be scientific and reasonable to predict risk.

This paper contributes to provide a new risk assessment model for agricultural products cold chain logistics. The new model overcomes the limitation of subjective empowerment and it increases the objectivity and scientificity in the process of cold chain logistics risk assessment. This paper also shows that practitioners involved in the field of products cold chain logistics can manage the potential risk by a set of scientific methods for assessing the risk before the accident.

The paper provides a practical guideline to practitioners, especially for cold chain logistics managers, relevant management departments, and cold chain logistics management consultants. It is proved that the new risk assessment method and the risk assessment index system of agricultural products cold chain logistics can help them assess the risk scientifically and reasonably.

Although the calculation is simple, the new model can overcome the limitation of subjective empowerment scientifically and reasonably, and thus has important practical value.