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This paper aims to improve the delimitation of plant growth stages in the context of weather index insurance design. We propose a data-driven phase division that minimizes estimation errors in the weather-yield relationship and investigate whether it can substitute an expert-based determination of plant growth phases. We combine this procedure with various statistical and machine learning estimation methods and compare their performance.

Using the example of winter barley, we divide the complete growth cycle into four sub-phases based on phenology reports and expert instructions and evaluate all combinations of start and end points of the various growth stages by their estimation errors of the respective yield models. Some of the most commonly used statistical and machine learning methods are employed to model the weather-yield relationship with each selected method we applied.

Our results confirm that the fit of crop-yield models can be improved by disaggregation of the vegetation period. Moreover, we find that the data-driven approach leads to similar division points as the expert-based approach. Regarding the statistical model, in terms of yield model prediction accuracy, Support Vector Machine ranks first and Polynomial Regression last; however, the performance across different methods exhibits only minor differences.

This research addresses the challenge of separating plant growth stages when phenology information is unavailable. Moreover, it evaluates the performance of statistical and machine learning methods in the context of crop yield prediction. The suggested phase-division in conjunction with advanced statistical methods offers promising avenues for improving weather index insurance design.

Agriculture commodity price forecasts have long been important for a variety of market players. The study we conducted aims to address this difficulty by examining the weekly wholesale price index of green grams in the Chinese market. The index covers a ten-year period, from January 1, 2010, to January 3, 2020, and has significant economic implications.

In order to address the nonlinear patterns present in the price time series, we investigate the nonlinear auto-regressive neural network as the forecast model. This modeling technique is able to combine a variety of basic nonlinear functions to approximate more complex nonlinear characteristics. Specifically, we examine prediction performance that corresponds to several configurations across data splitting ratios, hidden neuron and delay counts, and model estimation approaches.

Our model turns out to be rather simple and yields forecasts with good stability and accuracy. Relative root mean square errors throughout training, validation and testing are specifically 4.34, 4.71 and 3.98%, respectively. The results of benchmark research show that the neural network produces statistically considerably better performance when compared to other machine learning models and classic time-series econometric methods.

Utilizing our findings as independent technical price forecasts would be one use. Alternatively, policy research and fresh insights into price patterns might be achieved by combining them with other (basic) prediction outputs.

Forecasts of commodity prices are vital issues to market participants and policy makers. Those of corn are of no exception, considering its strategic importance. In the present study, the authors assess the forecast problem for the weekly wholesale price index of yellow corn in China during January 1, 2010–January 10, 2020 period.

The authors employ the nonlinear auto-regressive neural network as the forecast tool and evaluate forecast performance of different model settings over algorithms, delays, hidden neurons and data splitting ratios in arriving at the final model.

The final model is relatively simple and leads to accurate and stable results. Particularly, it generates relative root mean square errors of 1.05%, 1.08% and 1.03% for training, validation and testing, respectively.

Through the analysis, the study shows usefulness of the neural network technique for commodity price forecasts. The results might serve as technical forecasts on a standalone basis or be combined with other fundamental forecasts for perspectives of price trends and corresponding policy analysis.

This paper gives mining area managers guidance on how to begin this process and which scenario to choose. It aims not only to improve the quality of the environment but also to attend to the well-being of societies previously benefiting from the economic resources of raw materials. However, this task can be difficult to accomplish in countries of the poor South.

Building resilient infrastructure, promoting inclusive and sustainable industrialization and fostering innovation are among WHO’s main goals. Ensuring the possibility of an equitable transition from traditional resource industries to sustainable resource management is a key task for global society.

The transformation of mines into tourist attractions has been studied by several authors. In many countries of the Global North, this transformation has been successful (to a greater or lesser extent). Unfortunately, much remains to be done in many countries of the South. These countries, often at the risk to miners’ lives, engage in mining that is often economically unsustainable. The reason may not only be economic shortcomings but also a lack of conceptual solutions.

The current climate situation presents opportunities to receive funds from Northern countries that can be used for such a transformation.

Regions of the world with a history of transformation from raw material industries to services can provide know-how assistance and knowledge of good practices. Tourism in this aspect can become one of the game changers in the fight for a better future, including tourism itself.

This article aims to investigate the impact of (1) the establishment of a refugee settlement, (2) the energy demand of a host and refugee population, (3) the residence time of refugees and (4) interventions in the energy sector on sustainable utilization of the forest.

Refugee movements from the Democratic Republic of Congo and settlement construction in a Zambian host society provide the setting. An agent-based model is developed. It uses survey data from 277 Zambian households, geographic information system coordinates and supplementary data inputs.

The future forest stock remains up to 30 years without an influx of refugees. Refugee developments completely deplete the forest over time. The settlement construction severely impacts the forest, while refugees' energy needs seem less significant. Compared with the repatriation of refugees, permanent integration has no influential impact on forest resources. Interventions in the energy sector through alternative sources slow down deforestation. Once a camp is constructed, tree cutting by hosts causes forest covers to decline even if alternative energy is provided.

The analysis is useful for comparable host–refugee settings and United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees interventions in settlement situations. Forest and energy sector interventions should involve host and refugee stakeholders.

This article adds value through an agent-based model in the Zambian deforestation–refugee context. The study has a pilot character within the United Nation's Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework. It fills a gap in long-term assessments of refugee presence in local host communities.