Ismail Fasanya and Oluwatomisin Oyewole
As financial markets for environmentally friendly investment grow in both scope and size, analyzing the relationship between green financial markets and African stocks becomes an…
Abstract
Purpose
As financial markets for environmentally friendly investment grow in both scope and size, analyzing the relationship between green financial markets and African stocks becomes an important issue. Therefore, this paper examines the role of infectious disease-based uncertainty on the dynamic spillovers between African stock markets and clean energy stocks.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors employ the dynamic spillover in time and frequency domains and the nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach over the period of November 30, 2010, to August 18, 2021.
Findings
These findings are discernible in this study's analysis. First, the authors find evidence of strong connectedness between the African stock markets and the clean energy market, and long-lived but weak in the short and medium investment horizons. Second, the BDS test shows that nonlinearity is crucial when examining the role of infectious disease-based equity market volatility in affecting the interactions between clean energy stocks and African stock markets. Third, the causal analysis provides evidence in support of a nonlinear causal relationship between uncertainties due to infectious diseases and the connection between both markets, mostly at lower and median quantiles.
Originality/value
Considering the global and recent use of clean energy equities and the stock markets for hedging and speculative purposes, one may argue that rising uncertainties may significantly influence risk transmissions across these markets. This study, therefore, is the first to examine the role of pandemic uncertainty on the connection between clean stocks and the African stock markets.
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Ismail Olaleke Fasanya and Oghenefejiro Arek-Bawa
Given the interest in sustainable development, this study aims to assess the relationship between CO2 and urbanization as well as the role of world uncertainty in this association…
Abstract
Purpose
Given the interest in sustainable development, this study aims to assess the relationship between CO2 and urbanization as well as the role of world uncertainty in this association in a South African context.
Design/methodology/approach
This study focuses on yearly data from 1968 to 2020. To do this, the authors use the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach.
Findings
The authors find that urbanization’s effect on CO2 emissions is only significant when it is augmented with world uncertainty. Moreover, this effect is negative (referring to a reduction in CO2 emissions). Meanwhile, the authors find that GDP has a positive (that is, increasing) and significant effect on CO2 emissions. Overall, policymakers should focus on decoupling economic growth from traditional fossil fuels that produce greenhouse gas emissions.
Originality/value
The existing body of research contains numerous studies examining the relationship between urbanization and CO2 emissions. However, the dearth of research on the impact of global uncertainty on this connection is weak. Hence, this study aims to fill this gap and make a significant contribution to the field.
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In this paper, the author examines the role of uncertainty due to pandemic on the predictability of sectoral stock returns in South Africa. This is motivated by the ongoing global…
Abstract
Purpose
In this paper, the author examines the role of uncertainty due to pandemic on the predictability of sectoral stock returns in South Africa. This is motivated by the ongoing global pandemic, COVID-19, in predicting sector stock returns.
Design/methodology/approach
The study considers estimation of dynamic panel data with dynamic common correlated effects estimator and two pair-wise forecast measures, namely Campbell and Thompson (2008) and Clark and West (2007) tests in dealing with the nested predictive models.
Findings
The results show that pandemic uncertainty has a negative and statistically significant effect on the different sector returns, implying that sector stock returns decline as the pandemic outbreak becomes more pronounced. While the single predictor model consistently outperforms the historical average model both for in-sample and out-of-sample, controlling for other macroeconomic variables effect improves the forecast accuracy of infectious diseases uncertainty. These results are consistently robust to both the in-sample and out-of-sample forecast periods, outliers and heterogeneity. These results have implications for portfolio diversification strategies, which we set aside for future research.
Originality/value
The empirical literature is satiated with studies on how news can predict economic and financial variables, however, the role of uncertainty due to infectious diseases in the stock return predictability especially at the sectoral level is less understudied, this is the main contribution of the study.