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This article aims to establish a dynamic Energy Performance Contract (EPC) risk allocation model for commercial buildings based on the theory of Incomplete Contract. The purpose is to fill the policy vacuum and allow stakeholders to manage risks in energy conservation management by EPCs to better adapt to climate change in the building sector.

The article chooses a qualitative research approach to depict the whole risk allocation picture of EPC projects and establish a dynamic EPC risk allocation model for commercial buildings in China. It starts with a comprehensive literature review on risks of EPCs. By modifying the theory of Incomplete Contract and adopting the so-called bow-tie model, a theoretical EPC risk allocation model is developed and verified by interview results. By discussing its application in the commercial building sector in China, an operational EPC three-stage risk allocation model is developed.

This study points out the contract incompleteness of the risk allocation for EPC projects and offered an operational method to guide practice. The reasonable risk allocation between building owners and Energy Service Companies can realize their bilateral targets on commercial building energy-saving benefits, which makes EPC more attractive for energy conservation.

Existing research focused mainly on static risk allocation. Less research was directed to the phased and dynamic risk allocation. This study developed a theoretical three-stage EPC risk allocation model, which provided the theoretical support for dynamic EPC risk allocation of EPC projects. By addressing the contract incompleteness of the risk allocation, an operational method is developed. This is a new approach to allocate risks for EPC projects in a dynamic and staged way.