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As social networks have developed to be a ubiquitous platform of public opinion spreading, it becomes more and more crucial for maintaining social security and stability by accurately predicting various trends of public opinion dissemination in social networks. Considering the fact that the dissemination of online public opinion is a dynamic process full of uncertainty and complexity, this study establishes a novel conformable fractional discrete grey model with linear time-varying parameters, namely the CFTDGM(1,1) model, for more accurate prediction of online public opinion trends.

First, the conformable fractional accumulation and difference operators are employed to build the CFTDGM(1,1) model for enhancing the traditional integer-order discrete grey model with linear time-varying parameters. Then, to improve forecasting accuracy, a base value correction term is introduced to optimize the iterative base value of the CFTDGM(1,1) model. Next, the differential evolution algorithm is selected to determine the optimal order of the proposed model through a comparison with the whale optimization algorithm and the particle swarm optimization algorithm. The least squares method is utilized to estimate the parameter values of the CFTDGM(1,1) model. In addition, the effectiveness of the CFTDGM(1,1) model is tested through a public opinion event about “IG team winning the championship”. Finally, we conduct empirical analysis on two hot online public opinion events regarding “Chengdu toddler mauled by Rottweiler” and “Mayday band suspected of lip-syncing,” to further assess the prediction ability and applicability of the CFTDGM(1,1) model by comparison with seven other existing grey models.

The test case and empirical analysis on two recent hot events reveal that the CFTDGM(1,1) model outperforms most of the existing grey models in terms of prediction performance. Therefore, the CFTDGM(1,1) model is chosen to forecast the development trends of these two hot events. The prediction results indicate that public attention to both events will decline slowly over the next three days.

A conformable fractional discrete grey model is proposed with the help of conformable fractional operators and a base value correction term to improve the traditional discrete grey model. The test case and empirical analysis on two recent hot events indicate that this novel model has higher accuracy and feasibility in online public opinion trend prediction.

Wage employees enter self-employment either directly or in a staged manner and may subsequently undertake multiple stints at self-employment. Extant research on the relationship between entry modes and the persistence and outcomes of self-employment is inconclusive. This study investigates the relationship between wage employees’ initial mode of entry into self-employment and the duration of the subsequent first two stints of self-employment.

This study used a matched longitudinal sample of 9,550 employees who became majority owners of incorporated firms from 2005 to 2016.

The findings demonstrate that the initial mode of entry into self-employment matters for the first two stints at self-employment. Staged entry into self-employment was associated with a shorter first stint and became insignificant for the second stint. Staged entry into self-employment was positively related to the odds of becoming self-employed for the second time in the same firm.

Using a comprehensive and reliable dataset, the paper shifts focus from the aggregated onward journey of novice entrepreneurs (survival as the outcome) to the duration of their self-employment stints. By doing so, the paper offers insights into the process of becoming self-employed and the patterns associated with success/failure in entrepreneurship associated with self-employment duration.

Simulation-based optimisation (SO) is a popular optimisation approach for building and civil engineering construction planning. However, in the framework of SO, the simulation is continuously invoked during the optimisation trajectory, which increases the computational loads to levels unrealistic for timely construction decisions. Modification on the optimisation settings such as reducing searching ability is a popular method to address this challenge, but the quality measurement of the obtained optimal decisions, also termed as optimisation quality, is also reduced by this setting. Therefore, this study aims to develop an optimisation approach for construction planning that reduces the high computational loads of SO and provides reliable optimisation quality simultaneously.

This study proposes the optimisation approach by modifying the SO framework through establishing an embedded connection between simulation and optimisation technologies. This approach reduces the computational loads and ensures the optimisation quality associated with the conventional SO approach by accurately learning the knowledge from construction simulations using embedded ensemble learning algorithms, which automatically provides efficient and reliable fitness evaluations for optimisation iterations.

A large-scale project application shows that the proposed approach was able to reduce computational loads of SO by approximately 90%. Meanwhile, the proposed approach outperformed SO in terms of optimisation quality when the optimisation has limited searching ability.

The core contribution of this research is to provide an innovative method that improves efficiency and ensures effectiveness, simultaneously, of the well-known SO approach in construction applications. The proposed method is an alternative approach to SO that can run on standard computing platforms and support nearly real-time construction on-site decision-making.

This study aims to examine the relationship between corporate governance mechanisms and the capital structure of Latin American firms.

The sample included companies from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. The authors collected data from 201 non-financial companies between 2009 and 2018, totalizing 1,716 firm-year observations. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and linear regression models with panel data.

The main results indicated that chief executive officer duality, legal protection system and corporate social responsibility voluntary disclosure impact the firm's total debt ratio, corresponding to a positive effect for the first two variables and a negative for the last.

This study advances in two main ways. Firstly, due to the broad approach in which the authors addressed corporate governance, involving board composition, ownership structure, minority shareholders legal protection system and information disclosure. Secondly, by presenting empirical evidence about the effects of corporate governance on capital structure from an extensive sample of Latin American firms, the authors expect to contribute to the international debate on the capital structure due to the unique characteristics of Latin America in this regard.

Utilizing the Marxist theory of unequal exchange to explain the terms of trade between nations, this paper elucidates one possible mechanism that gives rise to ecologically unequal exchange between developed and developing economies.

We propose a two-sector linear production model and demonstrate that a decrease in the organic composition of capital and an increase in the rate of surplus value in a sector will lead to a relative price decrease and value transfer out of that particular sector, as well as increasing the environmental costs of trade. Furthermore, we measure the levels of unequal exchange (value transfer) and ecologically unequal exchange of 40 economies and empirically validate their relationship.

The findings suggest that an important cause of the ecologically unequal exchange is the value transfer between economies caused by the international division of labor and real wage disparities. The inequality in international trade is a significant factor contributing to the gap in the ecological environment level between developed and developing economies.

By introducing the theory of unequal exchange or value transfer into the analysis of ecological unequal exchange, we provide a mathematical framework for analyzing ecological unequal exchange and a method for calculating the scale of ecological unequal exchange and value transfer, thereby enhancing the theoretical depth and practical significance of the ecological unequal exchange theory.

This study intended to bridge this gap by investigating the perspectives of international students regarding Taiwan’s bilingual education policy and its impact on their willingness to enroll in graduate programs in Taiwan. Additionally, the comparisons among international students from diverse backgrounds were examined.

Employing a qualitative research design, the study included nine participants from three countries, with each country contributing three students. Three sessions of semi-structured interviews were conducted, supplemented by the analysis of 15 documents from 8 organizations and universities.

Results indicated predominantly negative views toward Taiwan’s bilingual education policy, with little impact reported by two participants and none by others. Furthermore, themes derived from document analysis deviated from participants' viewpoints.

A focus on students from southern Asia, which was the major source of international students in Taiwan, becomes critical. In the same vein, little literature has been found concerning graduate students' perceptions toward bilingual education policy, which should be thoroughly explored as well.

This study aims to comparatively measure the impact factors of financial inclusion and their spillover effects for Belt and Road countries using panel data from 57 countries in 2011, 2014, 2017 and 2021 and relevant indicators from three dimensions: availability, usage and quality to construct a digital empowerment index of financial inclusion.

A spatial Durbin panel model is constructed to empirically test the impact mechanism of financial inclusion under digital empowerment.

Results reveal that improving a country’s quality of regulation, technology and residents’ financial literacy significantly contributes to the development of its financial inclusion, while improving its neighboring countries’ financial literacy also boosts its financial inclusion development. This study provides theoretical support for evaluating the development level of inclusive finance in “Belt and Road” countries, promoting the development of inclusive finance and alleviating the problem of financial exclusion.

This study is original as it creates a research paradigm for “Belt and Road” countries, enabling systematic testing and comparative analysis of inclusive finance development. It incorporates traditional and digital services, evaluating them based on sharing, fairness, convenience and specific group benefits. An inclusive financial index is constructed using the coefficient of variation and arithmetic weighted average methods. Additionally, it introduces a more rational analysis approach for the influence mechanism and spatial effect, using an economic geography nested matrix and spatial Durbin model to explore spatial effects in inclusive finance.

This paper develops a debt-run model to study the effects of liquidity injections on debt markets in the presence of a renegotiation option. In the model, creditors decide when to withdraw their funding and equityholders can renegotiate the contract terms of debt. We show that when equityholders have a large bargaining power, liquidity injections into distressed firms can rather cause more aggressive runs from their creditors, hurting the debt value. This outcome occurs because equityholders can strategically utilize the renegotiation option as a bankruptcy threat, pushing down the debt value below the potential liquidation value of the firm. In such a scenario, a deterred default resulting from emergency capital injections could be detrimental to creditors.

This paper seeks to understand users' perceptions of their experiences in mobile applications (apps) with gamified loyalty programs (GLPs) that use rewards as the primary engagement vehicle. The research focuses particularly on the motivations to further interact with GLPs and the motivational changes occurring after successive interactions.

The authors conducted weekly open qualitative interviews over a month (four rounds of interviews) with five Portuguese active users of the mobile app Yorn Shake It, from Vodafone, which is a relevant case study to illustrate GLPs in mobile apps.

Participants' motivations to interact with the mentioned GLP are shaped by the reward incentive and users' perceptions of the gamified interactive experience. Motivational changes occur regardless of the presence of external contingencies and depend on contextual changes or perceived results of the gamified experience. This means that rewards also satisfy intrinsic needs, but users may remain connected to the system as long as fun experiences are provided without exhausting perceptions. Also, motivation may turn to reward contingencies when the challenge becomes boring.

This is the first qualitative study explaining the perceptions of gamified experiences after continued participation, extending knowledge about the importance of a fair balance between the value and achievement of rewards and the entertainment of the challenge provided after continued exposure. The findings provide insights to GLP marketing managers and developers to better engage target audiences according to their needs and past experience, creating levels of challenges and fair rewards to maintain motivation and prevent abandonment after continued exposure.