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In a highly competitive scenario, such as today’s airline business, changes in the regulatory framework may produce important variations in the airlines’ results. An example is the introduction of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) mandates to help air transport decarbonization. The airlines’ break–even curve provides a useful tool to evaluate the competitive position among airlines and to assess and address the cost impact due to the new regulatory environment. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of new environmental regulations on airlines’ business results to achieve air transport decarbonization.

Based on the break–even curve and the relationship between fuel cost increment and fuel cost related to the airlines’ operating expenses, the unit cost increment due to SAF introduction is obtained for several scenarios of SAF prices and different airlines.

In many cases, we find that using 100% SAF with prices beyond 1.5 times the present fuel price generates losses: it is not feasible if it is not possible to transfer SAF price to passenger fares due to demand elasticity.

The novelty of this approach is the application of a rationale method to accurately determine the impact of several scenarios of SAF prices on airlines’ business results. This approach also provides a sound and compelling basis to argue before Environmental Regulation Authorities based on facts and figures. This paper is of use and value to airlines, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the International Air Transport Association (IATA), practitioners and academics.