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Article
Publication date: 20 August 2024

Siyu Zhang, Ze Lin and Wii-Joo Yhang

This study aims to develop a robust long short-term memory (LSTM)-based forecasting model for daily international tourist arrivals at Incheon International Airport (ICN)…

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Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to develop a robust long short-term memory (LSTM)-based forecasting model for daily international tourist arrivals at Incheon International Airport (ICN), incorporating multiple predictors including exchange rates, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices, Korea composite stock price index data and new COVID-19 cases. By leveraging deep learning techniques and diverse data sets, the research seeks to enhance the accuracy and reliability of tourism demand predictions, contributing significantly to both theoretical implications and practical applications in the field of hospitality and tourism.

Design/methodology/approach

This study introduces an innovative approach to forecasting international tourist arrivals by leveraging LSTM networks. This advanced methodology addresses complex managerial issues in tourism management by providing more accurate forecasts. The methodology comprises four key steps: collecting data sets; preprocessing the data; training the LSTM network; and forecasting future international tourist arrivals. The rest of this study is structured as follows: the subsequent sections detail the proposed LSTM model, present the empirical results and discuss the findings, conclusions and the theoretical and practical implications of the study in the field of hospitality and tourism.

Findings

This research pioneers the simultaneous use of big data encompassing five factors – international tourist arrivals, exchange rates, WTI oil prices, KOSPI data and new COVID-19 cases – for daily forecasting. The study reveals that integrating exchange rates, oil prices, stock market data and COVID-19 cases significantly enhances LSTM network forecasting precision. It addresses the narrow scope of existing research on predicting international tourist arrivals at ICN with these factors. Moreover, the study demonstrates LSTM networks’ capability to effectively handle multivariable time series prediction problems, providing a robust basis for their application in hospitality and tourism management.

Originality/value

This research pioneers the integration of international tourist arrivals, exchange rates, WTI oil prices, KOSPI data and new COVID-19 cases for forecasting daily international tourist arrivals. It bridges the gap in existing literature by proposing a comprehensive approach that considers multiple predictors simultaneously. Furthermore, it demonstrates the effectiveness of LSTM networks in handling multivariable time series forecasting problems, offering practical insights for enhancing tourism demand predictions. By addressing these critical factors and leveraging advanced deep learning techniques, this study contributes significantly to the advancement of forecasting methodologies in the tourism industry, aiding decision-makers in effective planning and resource allocation.

研究目的

本研究旨在开发一种基于LSTM的强大预测模型, 用于预测仁川国际机场的日常国际游客抵达量, 结合多种预测因素, 包括汇率、WTI原油价格、韩国综合股价指数 (KOSPI) 数据和新冠疫情病例。通过利用深度学习技术和多样化数据集, 研究旨在提升旅游需求预测的准确性和可靠性, 对酒店与旅游领域的理论和实际应用有重要贡献。

研究方法

本研究通过利用长短期记忆(LSTM)网络引入创新方法, 预测国际游客抵达量。这一先进方法解决了旅游管理中的复杂管理问题, 提供了更精确的预测。方法论包括四个关键步骤: (1) 收集数据集; (2) 数据预处理; (3) 训练LSTM网络; 以及 (4) 预测未来的国际游客抵达量。本文的其余部分结构如下:后续部分详细介绍了提出的LSTM模型, 呈现了实证结果, 并讨论了研究的发现、结论以及在酒店与旅游领域的理论和实际意义。

研究发现

本研究首次同时使用包括国际游客抵达量、汇率、原油价格、股市数据和新冠疫情病例在内的大数据进行日常预测。研究显示, 整合汇率、原油价格、股市数据和新冠疫情病例显著增强了LSTM网络的预测精度。研究填补了现有研究在使用这些因素预测仁川国际机场国际游客抵达量的狭窄范围。此外, 研究证明了LSTM网络在处理多变量时间序列预测问题上的能力, 为其在酒店与旅游管理中的应用提供了坚实基础。

研究创新

本研究首次将国际游客抵达量、汇率、WTI原油价格、KOSPI数据和新冠疫情病例整合到日常国际游客抵达量的预测中。它通过提出同时考虑多个预测因素的全面方法, 弥合了现有文献的差距。此外, 研究展示了LSTM网络在处理多变量时间序列预测问题方面的有效性, 为增强旅游需求预测提供了实用见解。通过处理这些关键因素并利用先进的深度学习技术, 本研究在旅游业预测方法的进步中做出了重要贡献, 帮助决策者进行有效的规划和资源配置。

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Article
Publication date: 20 February 2025

Ying Zhao, Tao Zhang, Jie Xu, Jie Yang and Wen-Ze Wu

This study aims to design a novel seasonal discrete grey model for forecasting monthly natural gas consumption by incorporating damping accumulation and time-polynomial term.

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Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to design a novel seasonal discrete grey model for forecasting monthly natural gas consumption by incorporating damping accumulation and time-polynomial term.

Design/methodology/approach

Considering the principle of new information priority and nonlinear patterns in the original series of monthly natural gas consumption, we establish a novel discrete seasonal grey model by adding the damping accumulation and time-polynomial term into the existing model. In addition, the order of damping accumulation and the coefficient of time-power term can be determined by the moth flame optimization (MFO) algorithm.

Findings

The empirical cases show that the proposed model has a better prediction performance when compared with other benchmark models, including six seasonal grey models, one statistical model and one artificial intelligent model. Based on forecasts, the proposed model can be considered a promising tool for monthly natural gas consumption (NGC) in US.

Originality/value

By combining the damping accumulation and the time-polynomial term, a new discrete seasonal grey model for improving the prediction performance of the existing grey model is proposed. The properties of the proposed model are given, and the newly-designed model is initially applied to predict monthly NGC in US.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 24 February 2025

Igor Postuła, Agata Wieczorek and Tomasz Sosnowski

The study aims to investigate the impact of state ownership on company market performance, i.e. on share price returns and volatility, during the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Abstract

Purpose

The study aims to investigate the impact of state ownership on company market performance, i.e. on share price returns and volatility, during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Design/methodology/approach

The study analyzes data from 125 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange between 2019 and 2020. Cumulative abnormal rates of return and quarterly standard deviation are used to measure investment return and price volatility. Panel ordinary least square regression models assess the influence of state ownership on stock market dynamics.

Findings

Our findings indicate that state ownership has a dual impact on share prices: it reduces both share price growth and volatility. The significant reduction in share price volatility provides evidence that state ownership enhances stability in uncertain market conditions, benefiting from governmental support.

Practical implications

Our findings convey to investors that state ownership promotes share price stability but may not lead to substantial increases in market value. To maintain a stable SOE share price, the state as a shareholder should be credible to investors, i.e. act transparently and inform the market about planned activities.

Originality/value

Previous studies concentrate mainly on the impact of state ownership on financial performance during the pandemic, while in a much lesser scope on market performance. We contribute to the literature by providing a more comprehensive understanding of the impact of state ownership on corporate market performance, particularly during the pandemic, through the lens of agency theory and resource-based theory.

Details

Baltic Journal of Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-5265

Keywords

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