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This paper explores the extent to which the period 2012–2021, when the General Education Quality Improvement Programme (GEQIP) reforms to primary education were implemented in Ethiopia, is one of educational improvement, despite the absence of gains in learning outcomes. It examines trends in access, learning progress in Grade 4 school quality and in equity of access and outcomes across regions and between urban and rural contexts.

Data from several sources are employed including Ethiopian national education data (Education Management Information Systems (EMIS)) and longitudinal school survey data from the Young Lives (YL) and Research on Improving Systems of Education (RISE) projects. Analysis employs descriptive analysis and regression modelling in a value-added framework. Trends in learning outcomes in mathematics and pupil backgrounds are examined alongside school quality, its measures and predictors.

Access to primary education in Ethiopia has expanded significantly, with some equity improvements. Learning outcomes have declined in most regions, in Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples (SNNP) from a mean score of 515 in 2012 to 436 in 2020. Several school and teacher quality indicators targeted by GEQIP improved modestly, including teacher maths scores which improved from a mean of 462 to 507. Improvements have not been sufficient however to outweigh effects of rapid expansion and rising disadvantage, perhaps worsened by shocks including COVID and conflict.

This research contributes to understanding the role of the GEQIP reforms in improving primary education in Ethiopia. It may inform policy on targeted education quality improvement. It informs wider debate on the “learning crisis” especially in sub-Saharan Africa.