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Publication date: 20 November 2024

Madhabendra Sinha, Partha Mukhopadhyay and Durlav Sarkar

Uncertainty in commodity pricing is a major cause of concern for farmers of developing countries like India. To observe the decision-making process of farmers of Burdwan district…

Abstract

Uncertainty in commodity pricing is a major cause of concern for farmers of developing countries like India. To observe the decision-making process of farmers of Burdwan district of West Bengal, India, the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model is employed to measure the extent of volatility in spot prices of potato and also to observe the existence of seasonal effects; Agmarknet database provided by Government of India over the period of 2003–2019 has been used. The market price of potato decreased during its season of production and peaked during the off-season period. The result implies that the volatility of potato forecasting is tending towards the standard error correction in the long run and from 2003 to 2019; the trend of potato price was influenced by multiple events. The result indicates that the farmers must focus on short-run structural events in the potato market.

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Growth, Poverty and Developmental Aspects of Agriculture
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83608-077-0

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