Search results

This study introduces an innovative approach to long-term economic forecasting by integrating anticipatory governance (AG) and causal layered analysis methodologies. Focussing on emerging economies, with Vietnam as a case study, we explore potential economic trajectories to 2050.

The research employs a mixed-method approach, combining quantitative economic projections with qualitative scenario building and analysis.

Our findings reveal four distinct future scenarios, ranging from low growth to transformative change. The preferred scenario, characterized by adaptive change, projects a Gross National Income (GNI) per capita of $30,684 by 2050, with significant reductions in agricultural labour and improvements in human development indicators.

This study contributes to theoretical and practical domains by demonstrating the value of integrated foresight methodologies in economic planning. It offers policymakers a comprehensive framework for navigating complex, long-term economic challenges and opportunities. This research underscores the importance of adaptive governance and systemic thinking in achieving sustainable, inclusive economic growth in an increasingly uncertain global environment.

This paper aims to assess the economic impacts of the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on Vietnam.

We constructed a general equilibrium model to assess the economic impacts of the CBAM on the macroeconomic indicators of Vietnam. We also constructed a generic partial equilibrium model to provide a zoomed-in view of the impact on each group of CBAM-targeted commodities, which is not possible in the general equilibrium model. Both the general equilibrium and the partial equilibrium models were calibrated with publicly available data and a high number of value sets of hyperparameters to estimate the variations of the estimated impacts.

The results suggest that the current form of the EU’s CBAM is unlikely to produce substantial effects on the overall economy of Vietnam, mainly because the commodities affected by it represent a small portion of Vietnam’s exports. However, at the sectoral level, the CBAM can reduce production outputs and export values of steel, aluminium, and cement.

The CBAM by itself may not lead to significant decreases in greenhouse gas emissions, but it could provide a rationale for implementing carbon pricing strategies, which might result in more significant economic effects and help in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This highlights the necessity of supplementary policies to tackle global climate change.

We constructed economic models to evaluate the impacts of the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on Vietnam, both at the macroeconomic level and zooming in on directly impacted groups of commodities.

The primary purpose of this study is to explore the effect of technical changes on provincial-level income inequality in Vietnam. The authors also investigate whether the quality of institutions and human capital level moderate this relationship.

This research applies the fixed-effect and random-effect models on a balanced panel data set of 63 Vietnamese provinces/cities from 2010 to 2020.

The study’s empirical results show that technical improvement has a nonlinear influence on income disparity in Vietnamese localities. When the local level of technology is limited, technological change can mitigate income disparity. However, as local technological levels increase, inequality tends to rise. Moreover, the study also reveals that the quality of a province’s institutions and the level of human resources are factors that moderate the correlation between technological change and income inequality. For provinces with better institutional quality and/or better human resources, inequality tends to decline under the impact of technological change.

The results of this study suggest that while encouraging technology advancement, localities should also ensure sustainable development, reduce income inequality and focus on improving institutional quality and human resources development.

There are increasing concerns about the impact of technical change on inequality in income distribution; however, empirical evidence on this relationship in developing countries remains scarce. This study is among the few attempts to examine this issue at the provincial level of a developing country considering the moderation effect of institutional quality and human capital level.

This chapter focuses on the potential of urban agriculture to support progress in SDG targets 2.1, 2.2, 2.3, and 2.4 in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam. The chapter integrates findings from the British Council-funded project, ‘Urban Resilience from Agriculture through Highly Automated Vertical Farming in the UK and Vietnam’, undertaken in collaboration with Middlesex University, Van Lang University, and local agricultural stakeholders in HCMC. Food security in the city faces multiple challenges ranging from significant in-migration, decreasing area of cultivated land, the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic that continues to depress the economy and disrupt food supply chains, and climate change impacts affecting the environment and people throughout the city. HCMC accommodates a substantial agricultural sector, which is evolving from traditional to modern production practices. City’s leaders established numerous policies that emphasise green, circular economies, climate change resilience, and low carbon emissions fuelling demand for agricultural solutions that integrate traditional and modern technologies that can be embedded in the local topography, soil types, architectural space, and native culture. Findings from greenhouse trials, community awareness surveys, and stakeholder-led workshops point to a range of high-technology-supported agriculture models that, if applied flexibly throughout the varying context of the urban area, have good scope to help Ho Chi Minh City and meet its growing need for food as well as its sustainability aspirations.

This study aims to explore the impact of social, financial and institutional factors on women’s entrepreneurship in Vietnam, emphasizing motivation’s role in addressing challenges. Women’s entrepreneurship holds economic significance, driving local economies and creating opportunities. Government efforts to support women entrepreneurs have increased, but research on this in developing economies, especially in Vietnam, is limited.

The paper investigates women’s entrepreneurship in Vietnam, examining social, financial and institutional influences and emphasizing motivation in overcoming challenges. Using a qualitative approach, it conducts in-depth interviews with 28 female entrepreneurs, analyzing data thematically. Methodologically, the study uses purposive sampling, triangulation and member checking to enhance credibility.

Findings reveal key motivations like financial incentives, self-achievement and social impact. These motivations empower women to overcome financial constraints, skill gaps, limited support and societal perceptions. This research guides women entrepreneurs to enhance success through learning, persistence, skill development and self-awareness.

This paper presents a novel exploration into women’s entrepreneurship in Vietnam, offering original insights into the interplay of social, financial and institutional factors, with a spotlight on motivational drivers. It provides unique perspectives on their motivations, challenges and support mechanisms. The study’s contribution lies in its comprehensive understanding of women’s entrepreneurship dynamics in a developing economy like Vietnam, offering valuable insights for policymakers, practitioners and academics alike. Its originality lies in its holistic approach and nuanced examination, enriching the discourse on women’s entrepreneurship in emerging

This paper aims to propose a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to assess the response from the household sector to monetary policy shocks through the consumption function. Moreover, the transmission from monetary policy to household consumption and income distribution is experimented with through the vector autoregression (VAR) model.

In this study, the authors used the maximum likelihood estimation to estimate the DSGE and VAR models with the sample from 1996Q1 to the end of 2021Q4 (104 observations).

The DSGE model’s results show that the response of the household sector is as expected in the theory: a monetary policy shock occurs that increases the policy interest rate by 0.29%, leading to a decrease in consumer spending of about 0.041%, the shock fades after one year. Estimates from the VAR model give similar results: a monetary policy shock narrows income inequality after about 2–3 quarters and this process tends to slow down in the long run.

Based on the research results, the authors propose policy implications for the SBV to achieve the goal of price stability, and stabilizing the macro-economic environment in Vietnam.

The findings of the study have theoretical contributions and empirical scientific evidence showing the effectiveness of the implementation of the SBV’s monetary policy in the context of macro-instability, namely: flexibility, caution and coordination of different measures promptly.

This research aims to offers a new method for assessing geoeconomic risks in bilateral relations and evaluate the level of such risks from Vietnam’s economic dependency on China.

I apply descriptive analysis to identify asymmetrical dependency in Vietnam–China economic relations and propose a geoeconomic risk assessment framework to evaluate risk levels in bilateral economic linkages.

The proposed geoeconomic risk framework assesses risk levels, which are positively influenced by the degree of asymmetrical relations (vulnerabilities), the net impacts on the receiving economy (impacts) and the sending state’s ability to control economic tools (threats). In contrast, risk levels are negatively affected by the effectiveness of existing mitigation efforts. The framework employs ordinal likelihood scales to rank various risk levels. In the context of Vietnam–China relations, market access for agricultural products and control of the Mekong water emerge as the most risky areas for economic coercion, followed by Chinese official development finance in infrastructure and critical input imports. On the other hand, debt dependency and foreign direct investment in the energy sector are considered more secure areas—less likely targets for economic coercion. Hence, risk mitigation strategies should prioritize reducing asymmetry in vulnerable dependence areas while maintaining current practices in more secure areas.

Methodologically, it introduces a new approach for assessing bilateral geoeconomic risk. Empirically, it provides Vietnam’s policymakers with a comprehensive evaluation of the implications of economic interdependence with China.

This paper aims to examine the effects of investor sentiment on the development of the real estate corporate bond market in Vietnam.

The research uses an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model with quarterly data. Additionally, the study employs Google Trends search data (GVSI) related to topics such as “Real Estate” and “Corporate Bond” to construct a sentiment index.

The empirical outcomes reveal that real estate market sentiment improves the growth of the real estate corporate bond market, while stock market sentiment reduces it. Also, there is evidence of a long-run negative effect of corporate bond market sentiment on the total value of real estate bond issuance. Further empirical research evidences the short-term effect of sentiment and economic factors on corporate bond development in the real estate industry.

Due to difficulties in collecting data, this paper has the limited sample of 54 valid quarterly observations. Moreover, the sentiment index based on Google search volume data only reflects the interest level of investors, not their attitudes.

These results yield important implications for policymakers in respect of strengthening the corporate bond market platform and maintaining stability in macroeconomic and monetary policies in order to promote efficient and sustainable market development.

The study offers some suggestions for regulators and governments to improve the real estate corporate bond market.

This is the first quantitative study to examine the effect of sentiment factors on real estate corporate bond development in Vietnam.

Climate change increases systematic risk for firms, especially those in the agricultural industry. Therefore, the need to examine the consequences of climate-related risks on agribusiness companies' financial performance across the globe and emerging markets has risen. In this context, the paper aims to investigate the effects of climate change risks on the financial performance of agriculture listed firms in Vietnam.

The study sample includes 77 Vietnamese listed firms in the agricultural industry in the period of 2015–2019. The authors chose temperature, wind, rainfall and humidity proxies to measure climate change. The OLS regression, random regression and sub-sample analysis have been used to examine the impacts of climate risks on firms' financial performance.

Empirical results show that rain and temperature have positive impacts on financial performance of Vietnamese agriculture listed firms, while wind and humidity have insignificant impacts on financial performance.

The research helps researchers, businesses, practitioners and policymakers interested in the agricultural industry, especially those in developing and emerging countries, to develop a deep understanding of the impact of climate change risks on firm performance and therefrom prepare necessary measures to reduce the negative impacts.

This study adds to the literature stream on the impacts of climate change on financial performance. It is the first study to investigate this impact in Vietnam, a country which depends mainly on agriculture.