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A company’s dividend policy is determined not just by its strategy but also by the qualities of its managers, particularly overconfidence. As a result, the purpose of this study is to explore the impact of CEO overconfidence on dividend policy using the dividend payout ratio and dividend yield ratio.

The study’s sample includes 170 non-financial enterprises listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange between 2011 and 2022. Furthermore, we used corporate governance and firm-specific factors as control variables. The fixed effect model based on the Hausman test result and dynamic system GMM estimation technique was employed in the analysis. Furthermore, the dividend dummy variable and alternative proxies of dividend payments are used to ensure the results are robust.

The findings indicate that CEOs’ overconfidence positively impacts dividend payout and dividend yield ratios. Further analysis reveals that board size and remuneration committee significantly impact dividend payment among corporate governance control variables, while block holding has a negative effect. Among firm-specific control variables, the results suggest that firm size, profitability, and market-to-book ratio are significantly positively associated. In contrast, the coefficient of variation and debt ratio are inversely associated with dividend payments.

Managerial overconfidence benefits shareholders by increasing dividend payouts, but firms may struggle in the long run if they do not have adequate retained earnings to meet capital requirements. Dividends and retained earnings must be balanced to make enough funds available for long-term investment in capital-intensive projects.

Although little previous research has focused on the managerial overconfidence-dividend policy relationship, the authors believe this is the first study to test this relationship generally in emerging markets, particularly Pakistan.

Information was obtained in interviews with Richard Nagel in Winter/Spring 2022. This information was supplemented by material from secondary sources. The only information that was disguised were the real names for Bob Crater, Tim Landy, Jane Tolley and Mary Nagel.

The case was classroom tested in Summer 2022. The responses from students helped to shape the writing of the case.

Richard Nagel, the owner of the RE/MAX Elite real estate agency in Monmouth Beach, New Jersey, has just learned that one of his agents, Tim Landy, quit and left the industry. Tim was a young real estate agent and Richard had spent considerable time training him. Tim was motivated and he worked hard to prospect for business, but he showed that he was experiencing difficulty closing on his sales. Richard decided to recommend that Tim work with another agent, Bob Crater, as Bob was an experienced salesman but was not doing the up-front prospecting that Tim was doing. Richard suggested two different strategies to the two agents – a pairing up arrangement and peer-to-peer learning. The outcome that Richard envisioned was that both of the struggling salesmen would benefit from either of these strategies, but Bob refused to collaborate.

Tim’s quitting was characteristic of an ongoing problem with employee retention that Richard had been experiencing as a manager in recent years. This problem caused Richard to think about how he recruited his real estate agents, how he developed them through coaching and how he motivated them so that they would stay happy in their job and not leave. He recognized the importance of thoroughly examining his retention strategy within the next 12 months so that he could better manage the problem and strengthen the productivity of his real estate agency.

The case is intended for an undergraduate course in human resources management, as it deals directly with recruiting, coaching and retaining employees.