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 Social assistance programs have been implemented in Madagascar to assist the most vulnerable and neediest poor in achieving a minimum standard of living during critical times. In the Grand South and Southeast Madagascar, where climate change, price fluctuations and sociopolitical instability threaten the population’s livelihood, the effectiveness of such aid-based programs is uncertain because of possible mistargeting. This study aims to assess the accuracy of the targeting methodology of four different types of social protection programs in Southern Madagascar.

The authors draw evidence from a national representative data set and use multiple techniques that integrate targeting performance and regression-based analyses.

Results show that cash transfers constitute the only program that effectively reaches the poorest 20% living in drought- and cyclone-affected regions. However, mistargeting is likely to occur in food, seed transfers, and the HIMO public works programs. Social inclusion information related to proximity to urban zones, religious affiliation, and number of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets are significantly associated to all program participation. Nevertheless, a serious under-coverage of the eligible poor is noted for Southern Madagascar.

This study is among the first to evaluate the targeting effectiveness of social programs in Madagascar. It introduces a novel approach to evaluating the poverty rate by utilizing a composite-based wealth score. The authors enhance the classic targeting assessment methodology by incorporating geospatial covariates, categorical, geographical and social network information into an econometric model. The study provides a comprehensive view of the main profile of beneficiaries reached by four social assistance programs in Southern Madagascar.