Search results

As social networks have developed to be a ubiquitous platform of public opinion spreading, it becomes more and more crucial for maintaining social security and stability by accurately predicting various trends of public opinion dissemination in social networks. Considering the fact that the dissemination of online public opinion is a dynamic process full of uncertainty and complexity, this study establishes a novel conformable fractional discrete grey model with linear time-varying parameters, namely the CFTDGM(1,1) model, for more accurate prediction of online public opinion trends.

First, the conformable fractional accumulation and difference operators are employed to build the CFTDGM(1,1) model for enhancing the traditional integer-order discrete grey model with linear time-varying parameters. Then, to improve forecasting accuracy, a base value correction term is introduced to optimize the iterative base value of the CFTDGM(1,1) model. Next, the differential evolution algorithm is selected to determine the optimal order of the proposed model through a comparison with the whale optimization algorithm and the particle swarm optimization algorithm. The least squares method is utilized to estimate the parameter values of the CFTDGM(1,1) model. In addition, the effectiveness of the CFTDGM(1,1) model is tested through a public opinion event about “IG team winning the championship”. Finally, we conduct empirical analysis on two hot online public opinion events regarding “Chengdu toddler mauled by Rottweiler” and “Mayday band suspected of lip-syncing,” to further assess the prediction ability and applicability of the CFTDGM(1,1) model by comparison with seven other existing grey models.

The test case and empirical analysis on two recent hot events reveal that the CFTDGM(1,1) model outperforms most of the existing grey models in terms of prediction performance. Therefore, the CFTDGM(1,1) model is chosen to forecast the development trends of these two hot events. The prediction results indicate that public attention to both events will decline slowly over the next three days.

A conformable fractional discrete grey model is proposed with the help of conformable fractional operators and a base value correction term to improve the traditional discrete grey model. The test case and empirical analysis on two recent hot events indicate that this novel model has higher accuracy and feasibility in online public opinion trend prediction.

This paper investigates the short-term market impact of the beginning of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine (February 24, 2022) on a set of airline stocks listed.

This study uses an event study methodology, cross-section analyses and interaction effects to study the effect of the war on airline stock prices and firm-specific characteristics that explain the cumulative abnormal return.

The authors observe a negative and statistically significant stock price reaction at and around the beginning of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, for 74 listed airlines. These results are consistent with investment portfolio rebalancing and asset pricing perspective. Moreover, this study's results show a higher negative stock market reaction for airlines based in Europe. Empirical evidence suggests the existence of a “proximity penalty” for European companies. Finally, this study's results provide insights into which airline-specific characteristics emerge as value drivers. Larger, well-capitalized (high liquidity and low debt) and profitable airlines firms with less institutional ownership have superior stock market returns and show more able to handle with the losses resulting from the war.

This paper fills a gap in the literature about the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on the airline industry.

The COVID-19 pandemic, having emerged early in the year 2020, had a devastating impact on the whole aviation industry. Airlines were particularly hit hard, given unprecedented border closures, the inability to adapt to highly volatile demand, and an embarrassing lack of overall pandemic preparedness. As of summer 2022, the airline industry seems on the track of strong recovery, with many airlines returning to profits and passenger numbers occasionally exceeding those of pre-COVID-19 levels. This study investigates the induced pandemic cycle, from January 2020 to December 2022, through tools from the network science literature. We model airline networks as a collection of nodes, representing airports, and a collection of links, representing direct flights between airports. This analysis has a strong focus on spatiotemporal evolution of airlines worldwide during the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to a comprehensive description of network science effects and counter measures during this excessive health and economic shock. Such an analysis could be helpful for better dealing with future pandemics, which are likely to emerge, if potential lessons learned are not implemented by the aviation industry.

This article examines the contribution of artificial intelligence to augmenting Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) to enhance traffic flow, safety, and sustainability.

The research investigates using AI technologies in ITS, including machine learning, computer vision, and deep learning. It analyzes case studies on ITS projects in Poznan, Mysore, Austin, New York City, and Beijing to identify essential components, advantages, and obstacles.

Using AI in Intelligent Transportation Systems has considerable opportunities for enhancing traffic efficiency, minimizing accidents, and fostering sustainable urban growth. Nonetheless, issues like data quality, real-time processing, security, public acceptability, and privacy concerns need resolution.

This article thoroughly examines AI-driven ITS, emphasizing successful applications and pinpointing significant difficulties. It underscores the need for a sustainable economic strategy for extensive adoption and enduring success.

This study aims to develop an integrative framework for strategic intelligence (SI) tailored to guide companies navigating systemic disruptions within global supply chains, identifying key determinants for its effective deployment. Current literature on management systems addresses SI components individually, hindering a precise definition and implementation strategy. This systematic review aims to fill these gaps by establishing a conceptual model of SI capability, emphasizing the interdependence of its dimensions.

Following the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) mixed-method analysis approach and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement, this systematic review synthesizes empirical studies, conceptual papers, mathematical models and literature reviews on SI capability dimensions. It adopts a flexible approach to explore SI within supply chain resilience during systemic crises.

The study enhances and broadens the field of dynamic capabilities (DCs) by advancing knowledge on SI as a dynamic capability inducing resilience within supply chains facing systemic risks. Additionally, it synthesizes and offers perspective on a rapidly expanding body of literature from the past three years, identifying emerging trends and gaps.

This research focused on three capacities: Supply Chain Visibility (SCV), Environmental Dynamism (ED) and Timely Seizing and Detection-Making (TSDM). While other dynamic capabilities may enhance SC resilience (SCR), this study emphasized the analytical and decision-making dimensions critical for improving SCR.

This systematic literature review introduces a novel conceptual framework, providing a foundation for empirical investigations. By offering an integrated theoretical perspective, the study proposes actionable research propositions and insights into SI’s strategic role in crisis management within supply chains.

This study explores how establishing an agile supply chain ecosystem (ASCE) during the COVID-19 pandemic impacts three listed auto firms’ financial and customer performance in China. Drawing on the theory of supply chain resilience, responsiveness and restoration (3R capabilities), we collect, mine and analyze unstructured social media data from Dongfeng Motor Corporation (DFM), BYD Company Limited (BYD) and SAIC Motor Corporation Limited (SAIC), all of which have production plants in Wuhan.

Data mining was conducted on 3,528 comments involving DFM, BYD and SAIC from 190 uploaders in the stages of “Early COVID-19 Period (January 23-May 31, 2020)” and “Enhanced Preparedness and Vaccine Launch Period (September 8, 2020–January 15, 2021)”. Our conceptual model of an ASCE was tested by adopting structural equation modelling and verified by the DFM case study.

The study finds that the 3R capabilities of the supply chain have a positive effect on establishing an automotive agile supply chain ecosystem. Establishing the automotive agile supply chain ecosystem has promoted corporate financial performance and customer performance, but the mechanism of action presents a delayed feature.

This study refines the definitions and application of the 3Rs concerning an ASCE in the automotive industry. Through text mining technology and statistical analysis methods, we uncover and discuss the impact of COVID-19 on the performance of three auto companies in China and examine how ASCE establishment plays a role. Constructing an ASCE provides a theoretical basis and realistic approach for the long-term and healthy development of the automotive supply chain.

Tourism is integral to the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs) and is closely linked to air transport. This paper aims to explore their relationship, emphasising impacts on accessibility, connectivity and collaborative efforts between airlines, destination management organisations and stakeholders. Improved air transport contributes to tourism-led growth, economic development, job creation and cultural exchange. However, environmental challenges prompt innovation with cleaner technologies and sustainable aviation fuels.

Opinion piece.

Linking aviation and tourism to the UN SDGs, the paper showcases contributions done to date to environmental, social and economic aspects. The paper suggests a focused strategy for aviation to align more closely with the UN SDGs. Actions such as exploring alternative fuels, prioritising energy-efficient aircraft, addressing local impacts and fostering global collaboration are crucial in addressing gender disparities for a more inclusive future.

This piece examines air transport developments from 1946 to 2020, revealing transformative periods marked by regulatory agreements, technological advancements and sustainability initiatives. The paper also addresses COVID-19 impacts, highlighting vulnerabilities, resilience and lessons for adaptability and sustainability.

旅游业是联合国可持续发展目标的组成部分, 与航空运输密切相关。本文探讨了它们之间的关系, 强调了对航空公司、目的地管理组织 (DMO) 和利益相关者之间的可达性、连通性和协作的影响。改善航空运输有助于旅游业主导的增长、经济发展、创造就业机会和文化交流。然而, 环境挑战促使清洁技术和可持续航空燃料的创新。

观点文章。

该文章将航空和旅游业与联合国可持续发展目标联系起来, 展示了迄今为止在环境、社会和经济方面所做的贡献。该文章提出了一项有针对性的航空战略, 从而更紧密地配合联合国可持续发展目标。探索替代燃料、优先考虑节能飞机、解决当地影响和促进全球合作等行动对于解决性别差异、创造更具包容性的未来至关重要。

本文探讨了 1946 年至 2020 年航空运输的发展, 揭示了以监管协议、技术进步和可持续发展举措为标志的变革时期。该文章还讨论了 COVID-19 的影响, 强调了脆弱性、复原力以及适应性和可持续性的经验教训。

El turismo forma parte integral de los ODS de la ONU y está estrechamente vinculado al transporte aéreo. Este documento explora su relación, haciendo hincapié en las repercusiones sobre la accesibilidad, la conectividad y los esfuerzos de colaboración entre las aerolíneas, las organizaciones de gestión de destinos (DMOs) y las partes interesadas. La mejora del transporte aéreo contribuye al crecimiento impulsado por el turismo, al desarrollo económico, a la creación de empleo y al intercambio cultural. Sin embargo, los retos medioambientales impulsan la innovación con tecnologías más limpias y combustibles de aviación sostenibles.

Artículo de opinión.

Al vincular la aviación y el turismo con los ODS de la ONU, el artículo muestra las contribuciones realizadas hasta la fecha a los aspectos medioambientales, sociales y económicos. El documento sugiere una estrategia centrada para que la aviación se alinee más estrechamente con los ODS de la ONU. Acciones como explorar combustibles alternativos, priorizar aeronaves energéticamente eficientes, abordar los impactos locales y fomentar la colaboración global son cruciales, así como abordar las disparidades de género para un futuro más inclusivo.

Este artículo examina la evolución del transporte aéreo desde 1946 hasta 2020, revelando periodos transformadores marcados por acuerdos normativos, avances tecnológicos e iniciativas de sostenibilidad. El artículo también aborda los impactos del COVID-19, destacando las vulnerabilidades, la resistencia y las lecciones para la adaptabilidad y la sostenibilidad.

This study aims to investigate the market reaction in the cyclical consumer sector to the US–Houthi conflict. Furthermore, the authors explore the impact of this conflict on market reactions by market and region.

Using an event study methodology, this paper analyze a sample of 1,973 companies. This paper used multiple event windows, including a 15-day period before the invasion announcement as the preinvasion event and a 15-day period after the invasion announcement as the postinvasion event.

The authors find that pre the event of war, the market tended to show a positive reaction, but toward the event day until post event, the market in the consumer cyclical sector actually reacted significantly negatively to the conflict, especially in developed and developing markets. The Asia and Pacific market is the market that feels the most negative impact from the US–Houthi conflict compared to other markets. Furthermore, in terms of industry types in the consumer staples sector, Food and Tobacco and Personal and Household Products and Services felt the negative impact, although the majority of all industries reacted significantly negatively.

This study focuses on the US–Houthi conflict, an event that has not been extensively studied in the context of market reactions. Unlike previous research, this study specifically examines the impact of the conflict on the consumer cyclical sector, emphasizing the significance of trade route disruptions, particularly the Suez Canal, on global markets. By providing insights into how such geopolitical events affect different regions and industries, this study offers valuable guidance for policymakers and managers in mitigating the adverse effects of geopolitical risks on market stability.

This study aims to examine market reactions to the Israel–Hamas conflict in neighboring countries, particularly focusing on the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region.

The study adopts an event study methodology, employing average abnormal return (AAR) and cumulative abnormal return as measures to assess market reactions. The sample for this study comprises 1,314 companies, with October 9, 2023, identified as the event day for analysis.

The results of our study indicate that countries in close proximity to Israel and Palestine encountered detrimental effects on their capital markets, as evidenced by negative responses observed across various sectors. Our analysis also reveals that countries in the midst of conflict, particularly Israel, experienced a decrease in their stock markets across various sectors, with the exception of materials and real estate. In addition, our investigation reveals disparities in market responses according to different categories of company size.

This research is the first to study market reactions to Israel–Hamas in the MENA region at the company level.

This paper examines the short-term market impact of the beginning of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine (February 24, 2022) on the world’s largest defense firms.

The authors examine the world’s 100 largest listed defense firms at and around the beginning of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine using an event-study methodology.

We observe a positive and statistically significant stock price reaction at and around the beginning of the military conflict. These results are consistent with the asset-pricing perspective/expected cash flow hypothesis. Consistent with the captured regulator theory, we find superior market returns for the two portfolios with a greater weight of defense sales. Superior market returns are also found for defense firms with higher R&D and capital expenditure intensity. Finally, these reactions are reinforced or mitigated by other firm-specific characteristics such as size, profitability and institutional ownership.

The effect of the war on stock markets has been relatively little examined in the financial theory. This study intends to fill this gap in the literature.