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Article
Publication date: 6 June 2024

Bingzi Jin and Xiaojie Xu

The purpose of this study is to make property price forecasts for the Chinese housing market that has grown rapidly in the last 10 years, which is an important concern for both…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to make property price forecasts for the Chinese housing market that has grown rapidly in the last 10 years, which is an important concern for both government and investors.

Design/methodology/approach

This study examines Gaussian process regressions with different kernels and basis functions for monthly pre-owned housing price index estimates for ten major Chinese cities from March 2012 to May 2020. The authors do this by using Bayesian optimizations and cross-validation.

Findings

The ten price indices from June 2019 to May 2020 are accurately predicted out-of-sample by the established models, which have relative root mean square errors ranging from 0.0458% to 0.3035% and correlation coefficients ranging from 93.9160% to 99.9653%.

Originality/value

The results might be applied separately or in conjunction with other forecasts to develop hypotheses regarding the patterns in the pre-owned residential real estate price index and conduct further policy research.

Details

Journal of Modelling in Management, vol. 19 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-5664

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 January 2025

Bingzi Jin, Xiaojie Xu and Yun Zhang

For a wide range of market actors, including policymakers, forecasting changes in commodity prices is crucial. As one of essential edible oil, peanut oil’s price swings are…

Abstract

Purpose

For a wide range of market actors, including policymakers, forecasting changes in commodity prices is crucial. As one of essential edible oil, peanut oil’s price swings are certainly important to predict. In this paper, the weekly wholesale price index for the period of January 1, 2010 to January 10, 2020 is used to address this specific forecasting challenge for the Chinese market.

Design/methodology/approach

The nonlinear auto-regressive neural network (NAR-NN) model is the forecasting method used. Forecasting performance based on various settings, such as training techniques, delay counts, hidden neuron counts and data segmentation ratios, are assessed to build the final specification.

Findings

With training, validation and testing root mean square errors of 5.89, 4.96 and 5.57, respectively, the final model produces reliable and accurate forecasts. Here, this paper demonstrates the applicability of the NAR-NN approach for commodity price predictions.

Originality/value

On the one hand, the findings may be used as independent technical price movement predictions. Conversely, they may be included in forecast combinations with forecasts derived from other models to form viewpoints of commodity price patterns for policy research.

Details

foresight, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 4 December 2024

Bingzi Jin and Xiaojie Xu

Developing price forecasts for various agricultural commodities has long been a significant undertaking for a variety of agricultural market players. The weekly wholesale price of…

Abstract

Purpose

Developing price forecasts for various agricultural commodities has long been a significant undertaking for a variety of agricultural market players. The weekly wholesale price of edible oil in the Chinese market over a ten-year period, from January 1, 2010 to January 3, 2020, is the forecasting issue we explore.

Design/methodology/approach

Using Bayesian optimisations and cross-validation, we study Gaussian process (GP) regressions for our forecasting needs.

Findings

The produced models delivered precise price predictions for the one-year period between January 4, 2019 and January 3, 2020, with an out-of-sample relative root mean square error of 5.0812%, a root mean square error (RMSEA) of 4.7324 and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 2.9382.

Originality/value

The projection’s output may be utilised as stand-alone technical predictions or in combination with other projections for policy research that involves making assessment.

Details

Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2615-9821

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 June 2023

Xi Zhong, Ge Ren and Xiaojie Wu

Economic policy uncertainty has increased around the world since the financial crisis of 2007–2008. While scholars have devoted a lot of time and energy to investigating the…

Abstract

Purpose

Economic policy uncertainty has increased around the world since the financial crisis of 2007–2008. While scholars have devoted a lot of time and energy to investigating the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on firm innovation, they have not reached consistent research conclusions. This study aimed to clarify the above research differences by exploring the impact of EPU on firms' relative exploitative innovation emphasis, so as to provide a more comprehensive and granular understanding of the relationship between EPU and firm innovation.

Design/methodology/approach

This study obtained 17,165 firm-year data points from 3,107 listed companies in China. It analyzed the above data with a fixed effects model. In addition, this study used an instrumental variables method to solve potential endogeneity problems.

Findings

Based on real options theory and contingency theory, the authors proposed and found that EPU has a significant positive effect on relative exploitative innovation emphasis. In addition, the authors proposed and found that this effect is more pronounced in industries with high technological uncertainty, low competitive intensity, and low state monopolization.

Originality/value

This study is the first to explore why firms prefer exploitative innovation over exploratory innovation from the perspective of EPU. In doing so, this study expands and enriches the EPU literature and the innovation literature. Furthermore, by introducing the moderating role of industry environment, this study deepens the authors' understanding of how complex interactions between industry and institutional environments work together to shape firm strategic choices, and especially firm innovation. Finally, the conclusions of this study have important practical implications for shareholders to take measures to balance exploitative innovation and exploratory innovation to achieve better development.

Article
Publication date: 2 April 2024

Meiting Ma, Xiaojie Wu and Xiuqiong Wang

There is consensus among scholars on how political institutional imprinting interprets the unique management and practice phenomenon of Chinese enterprises. However, little…

Abstract

Purpose

There is consensus among scholars on how political institutional imprinting interprets the unique management and practice phenomenon of Chinese enterprises. However, little scholarly attention has been given to the different political institutional imprints that shape firms’ internationalization. Therefore, this study aims to investigate how communist and market logic political institutional imprintings influence firms’ initial ownership strategies in outward foreign direct investment.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on the propensity score matching difference in difference method and a sample of 464 foreign investments from 2009 to 2020 for 310 Chinese private firms.

Findings

The results show that private firms with market logic political institutional imprintings tend to adopt higher ownership and vice versa. As institutional differences increase, private firms with market logic imprintings are more risk-taking and adopt higher ownership, whereas private firms with communist imprintings are more conservative and choose lower ownership. When diplomatic relations are friendlier, private firms with market logic imprintings prefer higher ownership to grasp business opportunities and vice versa.

Originality/value

This study not only identifies the net effect of political institutional imprinting on private firms’ initial ownership strategy but also investigates the different moderating effects of current institutional forces to respond to the call for research on bringing history back into international business research and the fit between imprinting and the environment.

Details

Chinese Management Studies, vol. 18 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-614X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 June 2023

Xin Feng, Xu Wang and Mengxia Qi

In the era of the digital economy, higher demands are placed on versatile talents, and the cultivation of students with innovative and entrepreneurial abilities has become an…

Abstract

Purpose

In the era of the digital economy, higher demands are placed on versatile talents, and the cultivation of students with innovative and entrepreneurial abilities has become an important issue for the further development of higher education, thus leading to extensive and in-depth research by many scholars. The study summarizes the characteristics and patterns of dual-innovation education at different stages of development, hoping to provide a systematic model for the development of dual-innovation education in China and make up for the shortcomings.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses Citespace software to visualize and analyze the relevant literature in CNKI and Web of Science databases from a bibliometric perspective, focusing on quantitative analysis in terms of article trends, topic clustering, keyword co-linear networks and topic time evolution, etc., to summarize and sort out the development of innovation and entrepreneurship education research at home and abroad.

Findings

The study found that the external characteristics of the literature published in the field of bi-innovation education in China and abroad are slightly different, mainly in that foreign publishers are more closely connected and have formed a more stable ecosystem. In terms of research hotspots, China is still in a critical period of reforming its curriculum and teaching model, and research on the integration of specialization and creative education is in full swing, while foreign countries focus more on the cultivation of students' entrepreneurial awareness and the enhancement of individual effectiveness. In terms of cutting-edge analysis, the main research directions in China are “creative education”, “new engineering”, “integration of industry and education” and “rural revitalization”.

Originality/value

Innovation and entrepreneurship education in China is still in its infancy, and most of the studies lack an overall overview and comparison of foreign studies. Based on the econometric analysis of domestic and foreign literature, this paper proposes a path for domestic innovation and entrepreneurship education reform that can make China's future education reform more effective.

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