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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 29 October 2024

Quoc Dung Ngo, Thi Van Hoa Tran and Vu Hiep Hoang

This study introduces an innovative approach to long-term economic forecasting by integrating anticipatory governance (AG) and causal layered analysis methodologies. Focussing on…

Abstract

Purpose

This study introduces an innovative approach to long-term economic forecasting by integrating anticipatory governance (AG) and causal layered analysis methodologies. Focussing on emerging economies, with Vietnam as a case study, we explore potential economic trajectories to 2050.

Design/methodology/approach

The research employs a mixed-method approach, combining quantitative economic projections with qualitative scenario building and analysis.

Findings

Our findings reveal four distinct future scenarios, ranging from low growth to transformative change. The preferred scenario, characterized by adaptive change, projects a Gross National Income (GNI) per capita of $30,684 by 2050, with significant reductions in agricultural labour and improvements in human development indicators.

Originality/value

This study contributes to theoretical and practical domains by demonstrating the value of integrated foresight methodologies in economic planning. It offers policymakers a comprehensive framework for navigating complex, long-term economic challenges and opportunities. This research underscores the importance of adaptive governance and systemic thinking in achieving sustainable, inclusive economic growth in an increasingly uncertain global environment.

Details

Journal of Economics and Development, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1859-0020

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 26 July 2024

Thu Kim Hoang and Quoc Hoi Le

The primary purpose of this study is to explore the effect of technical changes on provincial-level income inequality in Vietnam. The authors also investigate whether the quality…

Abstract

Purpose

The primary purpose of this study is to explore the effect of technical changes on provincial-level income inequality in Vietnam. The authors also investigate whether the quality of institutions and human capital level moderate this relationship.

Design/methodology/approach

This research applies the fixed-effect and random-effect models on a balanced panel data set of 63 Vietnamese provinces/cities from 2010 to 2020.

Findings

The study’s empirical results show that technical improvement has a nonlinear influence on income disparity in Vietnamese localities. When the local level of technology is limited, technological change can mitigate income disparity. However, as local technological levels increase, inequality tends to rise. Moreover, the study also reveals that the quality of a province’s institutions and the level of human resources are factors that moderate the correlation between technological change and income inequality. For provinces with better institutional quality and/or better human resources, inequality tends to decline under the impact of technological change.

Practical implications

The results of this study suggest that while encouraging technology advancement, localities should also ensure sustainable development, reduce income inequality and focus on improving institutional quality and human resources development.

Originality/value

There are increasing concerns about the impact of technical change on inequality in income distribution; however, empirical evidence on this relationship in developing countries remains scarce. This study is among the few attempts to examine this issue at the provincial level of a developing country considering the moderation effect of institutional quality and human capital level.

Details

Journal of Economics and Development, vol. 26 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1859-0020

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 30 October 2024

Quyen Vu Thi and Meri Juntti

This chapter focuses on the potential of urban agriculture to support progress in SDG targets 2.1, 2.2, 2.3, and 2.4 in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam. The chapter integrates…

Abstract

This chapter focuses on the potential of urban agriculture to support progress in SDG targets 2.1, 2.2, 2.3, and 2.4 in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam. The chapter integrates findings from the British Council-funded project, ‘Urban Resilience from Agriculture through Highly Automated Vertical Farming in the UK and Vietnam’, undertaken in collaboration with Middlesex University, Van Lang University, and local agricultural stakeholders in HCMC. Food security in the city faces multiple challenges ranging from significant in-migration, decreasing area of cultivated land, the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic that continues to depress the economy and disrupt food supply chains, and climate change impacts affecting the environment and people throughout the city. HCMC accommodates a substantial agricultural sector, which is evolving from traditional to modern production practices. City’s leaders established numerous policies that emphasise green, circular economies, climate change resilience, and low carbon emissions fuelling demand for agricultural solutions that integrate traditional and modern technologies that can be embedded in the local topography, soil types, architectural space, and native culture. Findings from greenhouse trials, community awareness surveys, and stakeholder-led workshops point to a range of high-technology-supported agriculture models that, if applied flexibly throughout the varying context of the urban area, have good scope to help Ho Chi Minh City and meet its growing need for food as well as its sustainability aspirations.

Article
Publication date: 28 August 2024

Ioannis Christodoulou, Moustafa Haj Youssef, Jahangir Wasim, Tam Thi Thanh Phan, Robert Reinhardt and Bao Ngoc Nguyen

This study aims to explore the impact of social, financial and institutional factors on women’s entrepreneurship in Vietnam, emphasizing motivation’s role in addressing…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to explore the impact of social, financial and institutional factors on women’s entrepreneurship in Vietnam, emphasizing motivation’s role in addressing challenges. Women’s entrepreneurship holds economic significance, driving local economies and creating opportunities. Government efforts to support women entrepreneurs have increased, but research on this in developing economies, especially in Vietnam, is limited.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper investigates women’s entrepreneurship in Vietnam, examining social, financial and institutional influences and emphasizing motivation in overcoming challenges. Using a qualitative approach, it conducts in-depth interviews with 28 female entrepreneurs, analyzing data thematically. Methodologically, the study uses purposive sampling, triangulation and member checking to enhance credibility.

Findings

Findings reveal key motivations like financial incentives, self-achievement and social impact. These motivations empower women to overcome financial constraints, skill gaps, limited support and societal perceptions. This research guides women entrepreneurs to enhance success through learning, persistence, skill development and self-awareness.

Originality/value

This paper presents a novel exploration into women’s entrepreneurship in Vietnam, offering original insights into the interplay of social, financial and institutional factors, with a spotlight on motivational drivers. It provides unique perspectives on their motivations, challenges and support mechanisms. The study’s contribution lies in its comprehensive understanding of women’s entrepreneurship dynamics in a developing economy like Vietnam, offering valuable insights for policymakers, practitioners and academics alike. Its originality lies in its holistic approach and nuanced examination, enriching the discourse on women’s entrepreneurship in emerging

Article
Publication date: 28 February 2023

Hanh Minh Thai, Giang Nguyen Thuc Huong, Trinh Trong Nguyen, Hien Thu Pham, Huyen Thi Khanh Nguyen and Trang Huyen Vu

Climate change increases systematic risk for firms, especially those in the agricultural industry. Therefore, the need to examine the consequences of climate-related risks on…

Abstract

Purpose

Climate change increases systematic risk for firms, especially those in the agricultural industry. Therefore, the need to examine the consequences of climate-related risks on agribusiness companies' financial performance across the globe and emerging markets has risen. In this context, the paper aims to investigate the effects of climate change risks on the financial performance of agriculture listed firms in Vietnam.

Design/methodology/approach

The study sample includes 77 Vietnamese listed firms in the agricultural industry in the period of 2015–2019. The authors chose temperature, wind, rainfall and humidity proxies to measure climate change. The OLS regression, random regression and sub-sample analysis have been used to examine the impacts of climate risks on firms' financial performance.

Findings

Empirical results show that rain and temperature have positive impacts on financial performance of Vietnamese agriculture listed firms, while wind and humidity have insignificant impacts on financial performance.

Research limitations/implications

The research helps researchers, businesses, practitioners and policymakers interested in the agricultural industry, especially those in developing and emerging countries, to develop a deep understanding of the impact of climate change risks on firm performance and therefrom prepare necessary measures to reduce the negative impacts.

Originality/value

This study adds to the literature stream on the impacts of climate change on financial performance. It is the first study to investigate this impact in Vietnam, a country which depends mainly on agriculture.

Details

Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies, vol. 14 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-0839

Keywords

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