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The purpose of this study is to propose a systematic model selection procedure for long-term load forecasting (LTLF) for ex-ante and ex-post cases considering uncertainty in exogenous predictors.

The different variants of regression models, namely, Polynomial Regression (PR), Generalised Additive Model (GAM), Quantile Polynomial Regression (QPR) and Quantile Spline Regression (QSR), incorporating uncertainty in exogenous predictors like population, Real Gross State Product (RGSP) and Real Per Capita Income (RPCI), temperature and indicators of breakpoints and calendar effects, are considered for LTLF. Initially, the Backward Feature Elimination procedure is used to identify the optimal set of predictors for LTLF. Then, the consistency in model accuracies is evaluated using point and probabilistic forecast error metrics for ex-ante and ex-post cases.

From this study, it is found PR model outperformed in ex-ante condition, while QPR model outperformed in ex-post condition. Further, QPR model performed consistently across validation and testing periods. Overall, QPR model excelled in capturing uncertainty in exogenous predictors, thereby reducing over-forecast error and risk of overinvestment.

These findings can help utilities to align model selection strategies with their risk tolerance.

To propose the systematic model selection procedure in this study, the consistent performance of PR, GAM, QPR and QSR models are evaluated using point forecast accuracy metrics Mean Absolute Percentage Error, Root Mean Squared Error and probabilistic forecast accuracy metric Pinball Score for ex-ante and ex-post cases considering uncertainty in the considered exogenous predictors such as RGSP, RPCI, population and temperature.

This paper aims to study the effect of ultraviolet (UV) light on the corrosion behavior of BC550 weathering steel in simulated marine atmospheric environment.

The effect of UV light on the corrosion behavior of BC550 weathering steel in simulated marine atmospheric environments were investigated by the corrosion weight gain experiment, in situ electrochemical noise, scanning electron microscope and X-ray diffraction.

UV light accelerated the corrosion process of BC550 weathering steel in the simulated marine atmospheric environment during the first 168 h. The maximum influence factor of UV light was 0.32, and it was only 0.08 after 168 h of corrosion process.

As the extension of corrosion time, the thickness and density of the corrosion product layer increased, which weakened the acceleration effect of UV light.

This chapter critically evaluates whether football can attain recognition as a national sport in China. Article No. 11, released by the Chinese government in 2015, aimed to develop a new national strategy centralised on the sport of football to foster consumption and enhance national soft power. Consequently, this also means encouraging Chinese football fans to support the national football team. Comparing the significance of local football clubs and the national football team to Chinese football fans is deemed meaningless and unable to generate useful information to comprehend Chinese people's attitudes towards local and national communities. Through literature comparisons with established Chinese national sports such as Chinese martial arts, badminton and table tennis, the discussion reveals that football currently falls short of meeting the general criteria of invention and popularity to be considered a Chinese national sport. In the specific Chinese context, it also proves that football fails to meet the criterion of politics, hindering its identification as a national sport. Consequently, the chapter rebuts the assumption and advocates for the validity of comparing how fans assess their fandom for local and national football teams.

The chapter articulates the transition to and evolution of the commercialisation of Chinese professional football. It is periodised based on major turning points. The research yielded two major findings. First, there exists a distinct ‘Chinese way’ of commercialising football. However, it does not indicate that Chinese football doggedly avoided the Western governance model. For the club governance, Chinese football authorities set about recommending privately operated enterprises, large and medium-sized state-owned enterprises. Second, the commercialisation transitions of professional football in China were triggered by exogenous policy shifts, rather than endogenous changes in market structures, resulting in higher horizontal financial fragility than is associated with the commercialisation model adopted in more developed Western markets. The applicability to voluntary football clubs is assessed as well.

In order to determine whether the factors affecting office worker well-being are location dependent, this exploratory study analyses the relative importance of different “building well-being” factors for prime office workers in two leading but environmentally contrastive real estate markets: London and Hong Kong.

This paper adopts a mixed methods sequential explanatory design (follow-up explanations model), consisting of three phases: an exploratory phase to refine the building well-being factors, a quantitative phase utilising a questionnaire to assess the relative importance of these building well-being factors (N = 281: London = 171; Hong Kong = 110), followed by a final phase of follow-up interviews with respondents to explore the reasons behind the significant differences observed in the quantitative phase (N = 13: London = 7; Hong Kong = 6).

While London and Hong Kong share some highly-ranking factors in common, significant differences in importance are observed for 17 of the 31 identified factors as a result of contrasting physical, economic, and cultural environments.

Despite growing recognition of the importance of the built environment on well-being, to the authors’ knowledge there has been no previous research investigating how building well-being demands may vary systematically across geographies. Understanding these differences has important implications for interpreting building well-being research, effective business operations, real estate investment, building certification scheme design, and governance of the built environment.

This paper examines the influence of geopolitical tensions—operationalized as political divergence between governments—on firms’ foreign supply bases and the resulting effects on supply base complexity and sub-tier supplier sharing.

The authors conduct panel data regression analyses over the period 2003–2019 to investigate whether political divergence affects foreign supply bases for 2,858 US firms sourcing from 99 countries and to examine how political divergence exposure impacts the supply network structures of 853 US firms.

Firms reduce their supply bases in countries exposed to heightened geopolitical tensions. These supply chain adjustments are associated with increased supply base complexity and greater sub-tier supplier sharing.

This study highlights the importance of state relations in global supply chain reconfiguration. Political divergence between governments provides a dual-view of political risk (i.e. buyer–supplier countries), which can help firms anticipate geopolitical disruptions. While reducing supply bases in foreign countries facing heightened geopolitical tensions is intended to mitigate disruptions, these supply base adjustments are linked to increased supply base complexity and sub-tier supplier sharing, thereby exposing firms to other types of supply disruptions. Additionally, this research contributes to understanding the effects of geopolitical tensions on supply base complexity through the lenses of transaction cost economics and resource dependence theory.

Along with the national government's expectation transformation, administrative system reform, economic transition, social demand structure's upgrading and population change, these negative effects are turning increasingly obvious and thus become huge powers that push the reform of traditional elite sports development mode forward. Against this background, in order to make this reform better adapted to China's reality and future development, the chapter suggests that Chinese traditional elite sports development mode should shift its driving forces of development from single to multiple, change its administrative system from government-oriented to society-oriented, develop its training concepts from instrumentalism to humanism, improve its construction of development from unbalanced to balanced and alter its effectiveness of development from extensive to intensive so as to achieve sustainable development.

The impact of extreme heat on prisons and carceral facilities is becoming increasingly visible, yet remains overlooked by scholars, practitioners and policymakers. Prisons are a unique type of infrastructure designed to severely limit and control the movement of hundreds and even thousands of individuals as a form of punishment. This leads to many significant challenges to mitigating the risk of heat-related illness in prisons and other carceral spaces that have remained overlooked across many disciplines including emergency management, disasters, corrections and public health.

For this study, we analyzed 192 surveys from incarcerated persons in state prisons throughout Texas to understand how incarceration and the punitive prison environment create challenges to managing extreme heat in prisons.

We found that characteristics of modern incarceration, including communal distribution of resources, crowded conditions and a lack of agency for incarcerated people, create barriers to accessing resources during periods of extreme heat. Furthermore, the punitive nature of the prison environment as manifested in the relationship between staff and incarcerated persons and certain prison policies also create barriers to incarcerated persons accessing resources to reduce their risk of heat-related illness and death.

These issues are particularly relevant to the health and safety of incarcerated persons during periods of extreme temperatures but also speak broadly to the implications of incarceration, disaster risk, and the advancement of human rights for incarcerated people.

This article addresses a gap in the literature by including the perspectives of persons incarcerated in Texas prisons experiencing extreme heat and implicates the characteristics of incarceration and punishment in the production of disaster risk.

Modular integrated construction (MiC) is an innovative and effective manufacturing-based method of construction that has become the mainstream development direction of projects in Hong Kong (HK). However, large-scale promotion of MiC practice still needs efforts. A pressing concern is that the impact of relevant policies on stakeholders during project implementation is rarely explored in depth. Therefore, to fill the research gap, this study aims to investigate the influence of policies on stakeholders to drive the successful implementation of MiC in HK.

This study uses a strategy of multiple methods. First, a comprehensively literature review and survey were adopted to identify critical policies and stakeholders. Second, semi-structured interviews with 28 experts were conducted to quantify their relationships. Third, three policy–stakeholder networks at initiation, planning and design and construction stages were established using social network analysis.

Environmental protection policy, COVID-19 pandemic policy and environmental protection policy and quality acceptance standard for project completion are found to be the most important policies of the three stages, respectively. The HK government and developers are highlighted as prominent stakeholders influencing policy implementation at all three stages. The dynamics of the influence stakeholders receive from critical policies at different stages of MiC are discussed. Valuable recommendations are accordingly proposed to enhance the successful implementation of MiC projects from the perspective of various stakeholders.

This study contributes to the body of knowledge by considering the mediating influence of stakeholders during policy implementation in the MiC uptake, and is valuable in helping policymakers to deeply understand the influence of policies to further forward successful MiC implementation and practicality in HK.

This study explores citizens’ acceptance of prefabricated housing (PH) from the perspective of socio-demographic and psychological factors, aiming to reveal the formation of PH acceptance and realize a sustainable development of PH.

This study proposed hypotheses drawing on procedural justice theory and uncertainty management theory. A survey of 245 respondents was conducted, and the collected data was analyzed in a stepwise multiple regression model. Then, the psychological influencing mechanism was demonstrated using a mediation model.

Results of the data analysis manifested that citizens’ acceptance of PH was influenced by socio-demographic and psychological factors, where psychological factors had more significant effects on acceptance than socio-demographic factors. The psychological mechanism was examined by verifying the mediating role of uncertainty between procedural justice and the acceptance of PH. Furthermore, a scientific strategy for developing PH was proposed based on this empirical study.

This study extends the knowledge of procedural justice theory by investigating people’s acceptance in the PH context. This study is also one of the first studies to unveil the psychological mechanism toward a high-cost product with invisible technological innovation. This study contributes to the literature by introducing uncertainty management theory to a controversial issue, examining and expanding its application in a complicated context. Moreover, results highlight the positive influence of fair processes on controversial issues.