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The phenomenon of growth spillover occurs because of domestic shocks, global shocks and shocks to a foreign country or region, and these are transmitted through specific channels. This study investigates the strength of the economic linkages between Caribbean Community (CARICOM) economies and its main traditional partners, including the European Union (EU-27), and emerging trading partners, such as China, with a view to determining the presence and extent of spillover growth which results from the interdependence among these economies. The paper hypothesizes that the presence of these spillovers can be leveraged to chart the future for the region's integration in the global sphere.

Based on the existing theoretical and empirical literature, a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model was developed and employed to examine the strength of the economic linkages between CARICOM economies and its main trading partners, such as the United States (US), the United Kingdom (UK) and the EU-27, alongside some of the non-traditional partners such as China. This method has been widely used by institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, to profile economic linkages between economies. To this end, the methodology was formulated based on the IMF Spillover Reports which were produced from 2011 to 2015.

The model suggests that positive spillovers are likely to occur from continued deepened integration with the US, EU-27 and the UK, as traditional trade partners, but that opportunities also exist from a deliberate deepening of relations with non-traditional trade partners, for example, China. This becomes even more apparent when CARICOM is separated into categories consisting of more developed countries (MDCs) and less developed countries (LDCs). In addition, from the perspective of any trading partner, such as those in the EU-27, this research is relevant and timely as it contributes to the landscape of literature, which can be utilized for the purpose of negotiating parameters of trade and integration arrangements.

This study adds to the literature on evaluating the direction for deepened integration of CARICOM economies, both with selected traditional and non-traditional trade partners as the region pilots recovery in a post-pandemic global space.

Policymakers can use the results of this study to leverage economic spillovers as a basis for determining which trade partners offer the most significant growth benefits as the region recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic and it will also assist in steering regional integration. This result also implies that over time, the comparative advantage structure of CARICOM member countries' export profile should change to reflect the import profile of its trade partners. To this end, this study can be used to inform and better position the respective trade and industrial development policies of countries in the Caribbean region as they attempt to deepen integration regionally and internationally. From the perspective of the partner, traditional trading relationships such as those which exist with European countries, such as the CARIFORUM-EU Economic Partnership Agreement, can be more deliberately utilized given the geographic benefits on offer with deepened relationships with economies in the Caribbean. Further, this research can also be a point of departure for future research.

This study is among the few empirical works that examine spillover effects as a strategy for rebuilding economic growth in the post-COVID 19 era. This study adds to the literature on evaluating the direction for deepened integration of CARICOM economies, both with selected traditional and non-traditional trade partners as the region navigates recovery in a post-pandemic global space.

We extend a classic macroeconomic framework guided by extensive empirical and theoretical literature on growth transmission channels and shock decomposition, with the purpose of measuring the growth spillovers from G-10 countries to the US.

We use a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with dynamic structures to measure time-varying external spillover effects under different economic conditions, i.e. controlled by a representative set of American macroeconomic variables.

Based on our empirical exercise from 1996q3 to 2023q1, we emphasize the roles of France and Russia in the late 1990s as well as the G7 (excluding the US) and Eurozone countries following the pandemic. We also provide insights into the internal transmission channels.

We find that Germany, Japan and Italy only managed to have a net spillover effect on the US in one or two quarters in 1996 and 1997, while the influence of Canada, China, the UK and India appears to affect American growth between 1996 and 1999. The influences of France and Russia are stronger, as they can impact the American economy for more than 30 quarters. Regarding economic blocs, the G7 (excluding the US) and the Eurozone can impact the US during and after the pandemic.

Our results on internal pass-through show a relevant role played by the high levels of American debt and interest rates. This finding is relevant and worrying, and it is aligned with literature on the effects of high levels of public indebtedness and inflation after the pandemic, even in developing economies. In this context, according to empirical findings reported by Matos et al. (2024) based on conditional wavelet tools, most relationships between debt and GDP are given by anti-phasic leadership of the debt (0–4-year frequency period), while inflation can lead to growth in the opposite direction (0–8-year frequency period).

This evidence is significant as recent years have reshaped the understanding of power, with several states emerging as new powers. The role of economic blocs after the pandemic supports this viewpoint. To summarize, both the domestic macroeconomic scenario and the geopolitical forces pose challenges to the American economy.

Our work differs from previous related studies in two aspects. First, unlike most, we use the conditional connectedness approach outlined by Stenfors et al. (2022). Second, we extend a macroeconomic-based growth cycle model instead of a neoclassical approach.

Purpose: This study investigates internal/own shock in the domestic market and three external volatility spillovers from India, the UK, and the USA to the Sri Lanka stock market.

Need for the Study: The external market’s internal/own shocks and volatility spillovers influence portfolio choices in domestic stock market returns. Hence, it is required to investigate the internal shock in the domestic market and the external volatility spillovers from other countries.

Methodology: This study employs a quantitative method using ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model. All Share Price Index (ASPI) is the proxy for the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) stock return. It uses daily time-series data from 1^st April 2010 to 21^st June 2023.

Findings: The findings revealed that internal/own and external shocks substantially impact the stock price volatility in CSE. Significant volatility clusters and persistence with extended memory in ASPI confirm internal/own shock in the market. Furthermore, CSE receives significant volatility shock from the USA, confirming external shock. This study’s findings highlight the importance of considering internal and external shocks in portfolio decision-making.

Practical Implications: Understanding the influence of internal shocks helps investors manage their portfolios and adapt to market volatility. Recognising significant volatility spillovers from external markets, especially the USA, informs diversification strategies. From a policy standpoint, the study emphasises the need for robust regulations and risk management measures to address shocks in domestic and global markets. This study adds value to the literature by assessing the sources of volatility shocks in the CSE, employing the ARMA-GARCH, a sophisticated econometrics model, to capture stock returns volatility, enhancing understanding of the CSE’s volatility dynamics.

This study estimates the impact of growth transmitted from a near economic center (NEC) to neighboring countries in boosting the growth of Asian countries.

This study constructs the NEC of a country and combines it with the Penn World Tables database. The study estimates the impact of NEC on the economic growth of Asian countries over the period 1950–2019. The study also identifies the factors that boost the delivery of neighboring effects.

Estimation results show that a country’s output growth increases by about 0.14% when NEC’s output growth increases by 1%.

This study suggests that Asian growth benefited from a developed country that transmits economic prosperity to neighboring countries.

This study suggests that a country should have a good economic relationship with neighboring countries to boost economic growth.

This study contributes to the existing literature as follows: First, this is the first study that investigated spatial externality in growth between neighboring countries in Asia. Secondly, this study empirically tests the flying geese model in Asian growth. Thirdly, the study investigates the factors that facilitate growth spillover between countries.

In the context of the contemporary globalized environment and the rapid progression of Industry 4.0, the existing literature suggests that national intellectual capital does play a significant role in shaping diverse economic metrics. However, the connection between national intellectual capital and total factor productivity (TFP) has been largely overlooked. This paper examines the effect of national intellectual capital on productivity across 84 countries, encompassing diverse income levels, human development index (HDI) levels and continents.

This study utilizes dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), two-stage least squares (2SLS), generalized method of moments (GMM) and pooled mean group (PMG) estimation techniques on a sample of 84 economies from 2000 to 2019.

The results reveal a significant effect of national intellectual capital on productivity. Countries with robust intellectual capital exhibit enhanced productivity and, by extension, sustainable economic growth. The findings are nuanced, illustrating varied impacts across low, middle and high-income countries and offering insights into tailored strategies for each income group. Nations with lower HDI levels derive significant benefits from investments in intellectual capital, whereas higher HDI countries experience lower returns in productivity gains from additional intellectual capital investments. Interestingly, Latin America exhibits a paradoxical negative effect of national intellectual capital on TFP.

This paper makes a significant contribution to the literature by extending the discourse on intellectual capital to the national level, an area that has been relatively underexplored. The comparative analysis across income groups, human development index levels and continents enriches the understanding of the multifaceted impacts of intellectual capital on productivity. These insights are valuable for policymakers, researchers and international development agencies, providing a comprehensive perspective on how intellectual capital influences productivity in diverse economic and developmental contexts.

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first empirical study to investigate the impact of national intellectual capital on productivity across 84 countries, considering diverse income levels, HDI levels and continents.

The paper presents the facts on the policy challenges and opportunities in the way forward of trade and economic co-operation in South Asia amid the coronavirus disease 2019, which comes to be the least economically integrated region worldwide. Due to tense geopolitics in South Asia, trade is heavily biased toward extra-regional markets despite of existing regional trade agreements (TAs) in the region.

Having tested the stationarity of data with structural break, the paper uses intra-regional trade in addition to other domestic economic variables as exogenous regressors in autoregressive distributed lag multivariate framework, hence raising the quality of statistical inference.

This paper highlights that intra-regional trade significantly affects the economic welfare as measured by Gross Domestic Product per capita of the people from the region, hence raising the need for higher regional trade openness. If trade barriers are overcome, all the South Asian countries will gain through effective implementation of regional TAs.

The study relies on the multivariate technique with regional trade share as the main exogenous variable. In addition, the regulatory and economic conditions of all countries are different which also tends to affect the mutual degree of trade relations.

Over the economic reasons, the manmade barriers owing to political differences are the root cause for the low intra-regional trade. Amid the pandemic, South Asian courtiers have the high time to leverage the bilateral trade for mutual benefits. India being the largest economy can play a decisive role in pushing forward the regional trade bloc – South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) – for achieving its objective through multilateral engagements in a wider perspective.

The present study makes pioneer efforts to examine the dynamic linkages between regional trade and economic growth. The results provide new insight into the dynamics of benefits driven by trade interdependency.

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and economic growth with a special focus on the institutional environment at the state level. FDI-led economic growth and economic growth-led FDI have two dominant theoretical foundations, but empirical research supports contradictory findings. These perspectives largely ignore the institutional environment, assuming institutions to be background information.

To examine the causal relationship between FDI, the Granger causality method has been used. The impact of FDI inflows and other institutional factors on economic growth has been examined using the panel data regression method. The principal component analysis (PCA) method has also been used to develop indexes for some variables.

Results indicate a two-way Granger causality between FDI inflows and economic growth at the state level. Infrastructures, education expenses, labour availability and gross fixed-capital formation (GFCF) are positive and significant determinants, whilst corruption and FDI inflows are leaving negative impact on state-wise economic growth.

This study contributes to the body of the literature in four different ways: first, it empirically examines the trends and patterns of subnational FDI inflow and economic growth disparity in India; second, it examines the causality between FDI and economic growth. Third, with the institution-based paradigm in international business, it investigates how institutional variables affect the expansion of the economy. Fourth, it extends prior research by examining the link at the state level using a large panel data set made up of 29 states and 7 union territories (UTs) over the years 2000–2019.

This paper aims to study the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) channels in improving local firms' productivity. Two transmission channels of knowledge spillovers are empirically investigated. The study focuses on the role of high-growth firms (HGFs) that are assumed to have a higher absorptive capacity.

A threshold regression model that considers country and sector fixed effects is applied to investigate 8525 firms across 50 sectors in 12 developing countries in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region.

The author's findings indicate that first, larger firms with external market linkages are more productive. Second, high-growth enterprises are powerful engines of job creation; however, the firms do not outperform other firms in terms of capacity in absorbing FDI spillovers and do not have higher productivity.

The findings highlight the necessity of rethinking public policy priorities to support firm growth. Policies to maximize the gains from FDI spillovers are discussed.

This is the first study to investigate the strength of FDI spillover channels across different sectors, and the channels' impact on the productivity of local enterprises in the EAP region. This study also explores the potential role of high-growth firms (HGFs) in this interaction via job creation and improving output growth rate.

This study aims to examine the complex effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on China’s agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) from 2005 to 2020. It also explores the role of absorptive capacity as a moderating factor during this period.

Employing provincial panel data from China, this research measures agricultural TFP using the Stochastic Frontier Approach (SFA)-Malmquist method. The impact of FDI on agricultural productivity is further analyzed using a nondynamic panel threshold model.

The results highlight technological progress as the main driver of agricultural TFP growth in China. Agricultural FDI (AFDI) seems to impede TFP development, whereas nonagricultural FDI (NAFDI) shows a distinct positive spillover effect. The study reveals a threshold in absorptive capacity that affects both the direct and spillover impacts of FDI. Provinces with higher absorptive capacity are less negatively impacted by AFDI and more likely to benefit from FDI spillovers (FDISs).

This study provides new insights into the intricate relationship between FDI, absorptive capacity and agricultural productivity. It underscores the importance of optimizing technological progress and research and development (R&D) to enhance agricultural productivity in China.

The main purpose of this paper is to explore whether the nature of innovation is accumulative or radical and to what extent past year accumulation of technology stock can predict future innovation. More importantly, the authors are concerned with whether a change of policy regime or a variance in the quality of technology will moderate the nature of innovation.

The authors examined a dataset of 3.6 million Chinese patents during 1985–2015 and constructed more than 5 million citation pairs across 8 sections and 128 classes to track knowledge spillover across technology fields. The authors used this citation dataset to calculate the technology innovation network. The authors constructed a measure of upstream invention, interacting the pre-existing technology innovation network with historical patent growth in each technology field, and estimated measure's impact on future innovation since 2005. The authors also constructed three sets of metrics – technology dependence, centrality and scientific value – to identify innovation quality and a policy dummy to consider the impact of policy on innovation.

Innovation growth is built upon past year accumulation and technology spillover. Innovation grows faster for technologies that are more central and grows more slowly for more valuable technologies. A pro-innovation and pro-intellectual property right (IPR) policy plays a positive and significant role in driving technical progress. The authors also found that for technologies that have faster access to new information or larger power to control knowledge flow, the upstream and downstream innovation linkage is stronger. However, this linkage is weaker for technologies that are more novel or general. On most occasions, the nature of innovation was less responsive to policy shock.

This paper contributes to the debate on the nature of innovation by determining whether upstream innovation has strong predictive power on future innovation. The authors develop the assumption used in the technology spillover literature by considering a time-variant, directional and asymmetric matrix to model technology diffusion. For the first time, the authors answer how the nature of innovation will vary depending on the technology network configurations and policy environment. In addition to contributing to the academic debate, the authors' study has important implications for economic growth and industrial or innovation management policies.